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MARKET WIZARD NEWSLETTER ISSUE 21.pdf
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MARKET WIZARD NEWSLETTER ISSUE 21
🎯Fundamental Stocks
▶️ KKCL
▶️ Larsen & Toubro - SPECIAL PICK
▶️ Sanofi India
🎯Technical Stocks
▶️ Honda Power
▶️ Rane Madras
▶️ TVS Elect
TEAM MARKET WIZARD
🎯Fundamental Stocks
▶️ KKCL
▶️ Larsen & Toubro - SPECIAL PICK
▶️ Sanofi India
🎯Technical Stocks
▶️ Honda Power
▶️ Rane Madras
▶️ TVS Elect
TEAM MARKET WIZARD
👍1
July GST collections at ₹ 1,16,393 Cr, up 33% vs same period last year.
Indirect tax revenues once again in ₹1 Lk Cr plus territory.
@FinMinIndia says this indicates the Indian economy is recovering at a fast pace and robust revenue growth would continue in coming months too.
Indirect tax revenues once again in ₹1 Lk Cr plus territory.
@FinMinIndia says this indicates the Indian economy is recovering at a fast pace and robust revenue growth would continue in coming months too.
The gross GST revenue collected in the month of July 2021 is ₹ 1,16,393 crore of which CGST is ₹ 22,197 crore, SGST is ₹ 28,541 crore, IGST is ₹ 57,864 crore (including ₹ 27,900 crore collected on import of goods) and Cess is ₹ 7,790 crore (including ₹ 815 crore collected on import of goods).The above figure includes GST collection received from GSTR-3B returns filed between 1st July 2021 to 31st July2021 as well as IGST and cess collected from imports for the same period
The revenues for the month of July 2021 are 33% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year. During the month, revenues from import of goods was 36% higher and the revenues from domestic transaction (including import of services) are 32% higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year.
The revenues for the month of July 2021 are 33% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year. During the month, revenues from import of goods was 36% higher and the revenues from domestic transaction (including import of services) are 32% higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year.
*TATA MOTORS:TOTAL DOMESTIC SALES PERFORMANCE 51981 UNITS VS 27024 UNITS (YOY);43704 UNITS (QOQ) || GROWTH 92% (YOY); 19% (MOM) || EST 52,000 UNITS*
*ESCORTS: TOTAL SALES 6564 UNITS VS 5322 UNITS (YOY) ; 12533 UNITS (MOM) || GROWTH MARGIN 23.3% (YOY)*
*EICHER MOTOR: TOTAL VECV SALES 4271 UNITS VS 2184 UNITS (YOY); 2438 UNITS (MOM) GROWTH 95.6% (YOY);*
*Escorts July 2021 Sales – Below Expectations*
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Total Sales came at 6564 units vs expectation of 8825 units, YoY 5322 units (23%) and MoM 12533 units (-48%)
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Total Sales came at 6564 units vs expectation of 8825 units, YoY 5322 units (23%) and MoM 12533 units (-48%)
*Tata Motors July 2021 Sales – In line with expectations*
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Total Domestic CV came at 21796 vs YoY 12012 units (81%) and MoM 19594 units (11%)
Total Domestic PVs came at 30185 vs YoY 15012 units (101%) and MoM 24110 units (25%)
Total Sales (Domestic+Exports) came at 54119 units vs expectation of 51371 units, YoY 27711 units (95%) and MoM 46265 units (17%)
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Total Domestic CV came at 21796 vs YoY 12012 units (81%) and MoM 19594 units (11%)
Total Domestic PVs came at 30185 vs YoY 15012 units (101%) and MoM 24110 units (25%)
Total Sales (Domestic+Exports) came at 54119 units vs expectation of 51371 units, YoY 27711 units (95%) and MoM 46265 units (17%)
*VST Tillers Tractors July 2021 Sales - Ok*
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Total Sales came at 4397 vs YoY 3890 units (13%) and MoM 3937 units (12%)
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Total Sales came at 4397 vs YoY 3890 units (13%) and MoM 3937 units (12%)
*Eicher Motors July 2021 Sales – Below expectations*
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Motorcycles (Royal Enfield) came at 44038 units vs expectation of 53817 units, YoY 40334 units (9%) and MoM 43048 units (2%)
M&HCV came at 4271 units vs expectation of 3743 units, YoY 2184 units (96%) and MoM 2438 units (75%)
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
Motorcycles (Royal Enfield) came at 44038 units vs expectation of 53817 units, YoY 40334 units (9%) and MoM 43048 units (2%)
M&HCV came at 4271 units vs expectation of 3743 units, YoY 2184 units (96%) and MoM 2438 units (75%)
*Rain Industries Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 261 | *M Cap* Rs. 8779 Cr | *52 W H/L* 261/89
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result ok* Gross margin declined QoQ
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 3643.4 Cr (21.1% QoQ, 54.3% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 3007.7 Cr, YoY Rs. 2360.8 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 647.8 Cr (11.1% QoQ, 84.2% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 583.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 351.7 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 17.8% vs QoQ 19.4%, YoY 14.9%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 235.3 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 206.3 Cr, YoY Rs. 26.5 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 7
Share is trading at P/E of 10.1x TTM EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result ok* Gross margin declined QoQ
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 3643.4 Cr (21.1% QoQ, 54.3% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 3007.7 Cr, YoY Rs. 2360.8 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 647.8 Cr (11.1% QoQ, 84.2% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 583.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 351.7 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 17.8% vs QoQ 19.4%, YoY 14.9%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 235.3 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 206.3 Cr, YoY Rs. 26.5 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 7
Share is trading at P/E of 10.1x TTM EPS
*Home First Finance Q1FY22 Concall Update*
(Nirmal Bang Securities)
*Less than expected impact of second wave on asset quality (especially compared to larger listed peer) and robust collection trends are key positives*
*Outlook: Positive*
• Gross NPA (%) came at 1.9% vs QoQ 1.8% (Aavas at 1.1%). Co is targeting to reduce GNPA by 10 bps every qtr.
• Net NPA (%) came at 1.4% vs QoQ 1.2%.
• Restructured book is at 0.6%
• Bounce rates have improved in July to 16.1% from 18.3% in Q1. They were at 17.3% in Q4 and at ~10% levels pre-covid.
• Collection Efficiency was at 98.5% in March, it dipped to 94.0% in May and has risen to 97.6% in June, in line with Aavas.
• 1+ DPD increased to 8.9% vs QoQ 6.2% (1+ DPD for Aavas increased to 12.7% vs QoQ 6.4%)
• Disbursement runrate has reached Q4 levels in July.
• Sustainable long term spreads are in the range of 4.75-5.0% as opposed to current spread of 5.4%
• Opex/AUM should be in 2.5-3% range over next 2-3 years.
• Credit cost guidance is between 60-80bps in FY22 and should decline thereafter.
• By end of FY22, liquidity would be brought down to 500 Cr. This will support margins by 30 bps approx.
• Affordable Housing Cos’ tax rate comes to 20% due to benefits provided by Govt. Co will consider this with their new auditors once they join. (Co currently pays tax at 25.2%)
Stock is trading at 3.7x trailing P/BV
(Nirmal Bang Securities)
*Less than expected impact of second wave on asset quality (especially compared to larger listed peer) and robust collection trends are key positives*
*Outlook: Positive*
• Gross NPA (%) came at 1.9% vs QoQ 1.8% (Aavas at 1.1%). Co is targeting to reduce GNPA by 10 bps every qtr.
• Net NPA (%) came at 1.4% vs QoQ 1.2%.
• Restructured book is at 0.6%
• Bounce rates have improved in July to 16.1% from 18.3% in Q1. They were at 17.3% in Q4 and at ~10% levels pre-covid.
• Collection Efficiency was at 98.5% in March, it dipped to 94.0% in May and has risen to 97.6% in June, in line with Aavas.
• 1+ DPD increased to 8.9% vs QoQ 6.2% (1+ DPD for Aavas increased to 12.7% vs QoQ 6.4%)
• Disbursement runrate has reached Q4 levels in July.
• Sustainable long term spreads are in the range of 4.75-5.0% as opposed to current spread of 5.4%
• Opex/AUM should be in 2.5-3% range over next 2-3 years.
• Credit cost guidance is between 60-80bps in FY22 and should decline thereafter.
• By end of FY22, liquidity would be brought down to 500 Cr. This will support margins by 30 bps approx.
• Affordable Housing Cos’ tax rate comes to 20% due to benefits provided by Govt. Co will consider this with their new auditors once they join. (Co currently pays tax at 25.2%)
Stock is trading at 3.7x trailing P/BV
*NTPC Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 118 | *M Cap* Rs. 114615 Cr | *52 W H/L* 122/78
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result is inline with expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 26038.5 Cr (-2% QoQ, 11% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 25259.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 26566.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 23453.5 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 7438.9 Cr (14.3% QoQ, -4% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 7843 Cr, QoQ Rs. 6507.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 7745.1 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 28.6% vs expectation of 31%, QoQ 24.5%, YoY 33%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 3145.6 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 3513.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 4771.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 2470.2 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 3.2
Share is trading at P/E of 7.5x FY22E EPS
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result is inline with expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 26038.5 Cr (-2% QoQ, 11% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 25259.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 26566.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 23453.5 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 7438.9 Cr (14.3% QoQ, -4% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 7843 Cr, QoQ Rs. 6507.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 7745.1 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 28.6% vs expectation of 31%, QoQ 24.5%, YoY 33%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 3145.6 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 3513.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 4771.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 2470.2 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 3.2
Share is trading at P/E of 7.5x FY22E EPS