GHCL( Booming Soda Ash+Home Textile Combo): Technical
Positional Buy GHCL cmp 283 Resistance Zone 280/290 Above that Target ~ 312/360. Stop Loss~258 cl basis
FUNDAMENTALS~ 2nd biggest mfr of Soda Ash. Home Textile exports to USA. Stock trading at 6.4xFY22EEPS. Strong conviction investment Idea. TP Rs 450+
TP subject to mkt conditions. Personal due diligence advised
Positional Buy GHCL cmp 283 Resistance Zone 280/290 Above that Target ~ 312/360. Stop Loss~258 cl basis
FUNDAMENTALS~ 2nd biggest mfr of Soda Ash. Home Textile exports to USA. Stock trading at 6.4xFY22EEPS. Strong conviction investment Idea. TP Rs 450+
TP subject to mkt conditions. Personal due diligence advised
DO READ:
🎯PNB earnings were extremely poor with a Core loss of 1900 cr
▪️High trading gains of ~1000 cr and recovery of 3020 cr from Bhushan Power were the key earnings drivers.
▪️Recovery from Bhushan has been netted off against provisions.
▪️Excluding trading gains, Bhushan recovery and Interest reversal, the bank has made a loss of 1900 cr at the pre-tax level.
➡️Yes, PNB has reported a Core loss of 1900 cr for Q4FY21
🎯PNB earnings were extremely poor with a Core loss of 1900 cr
▪️High trading gains of ~1000 cr and recovery of 3020 cr from Bhushan Power were the key earnings drivers.
▪️Recovery from Bhushan has been netted off against provisions.
▪️Excluding trading gains, Bhushan recovery and Interest reversal, the bank has made a loss of 1900 cr at the pre-tax level.
➡️Yes, PNB has reported a Core loss of 1900 cr for Q4FY21
🎯Burmans a step closer to becoming Promoter. Religare allots 16627077 shares in name of Milky Investments and VIC Enterprises ( Dabur group companies).
TP➡️250/300.
Care Health valuation 15000 Cr. High profile investors participating in Fund raising. After debt restructuring is formally approved and put in place, Mohit Burman ( already major shareholder) can assume Promoter mantle
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/expert-view/we-are-gearing-up-for-religare-2-0-rashmi-saluja/articleshow/83235164.cms
TP➡️250/300.
Care Health valuation 15000 Cr. High profile investors participating in Fund raising. After debt restructuring is formally approved and put in place, Mohit Burman ( already major shareholder) can assume Promoter mantle
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/expert-view/we-are-gearing-up-for-religare-2-0-rashmi-saluja/articleshow/83235164.cms
The Economic Times
We are gearing up for Religare 2.0: Rashmi Saluja
“We are positive that the Religare restructuring process will go through .”
ALERT
RAIN is nearing breakout levels with yearly high closing price. Buy/accumulate for a target of Rs.250.
Disclosure: I own the company's shares.
RAIN is nearing breakout levels with yearly high closing price. Buy/accumulate for a target of Rs.250.
Disclosure: I own the company's shares.
*Brokerage Updates on PNB so far*
Jefferies has UNDERPERFORM rating with TP 33
Kotak has REDUCE rating with TP 36
JP Morgan has UNDERWEIGHT rating with TP 37
Credit Suisse has UNDERPERFORM rating with TP 38
Elara Capital has SELL rating with TP 38
*More downgrades likely*
Jefferies has UNDERPERFORM rating with TP 33
Kotak has REDUCE rating with TP 36
JP Morgan has UNDERWEIGHT rating with TP 37
Credit Suisse has UNDERPERFORM rating with TP 38
Elara Capital has SELL rating with TP 38
*More downgrades likely*
🇮🇳 *RAIN INDUSTRIES*: _*In MSCI smallcap*_
_Buying has already started and following FPCs already buying continuously_
▫️Emerging Markets Small Capitalisation Equity Index
▫️Ishares India SC Mauritius Co
▫️PIMCO Equity Series Pimco Rae Fund Emerging
▫️Emerging Markets Small Capitalisation Equity Index
▫️IShares Core MDCI UCITS ETF
▫️Northern Trust Collective Emerging Markets Small
▫️State Street Global Smallcap Equity Ex-US
▫️College Retirement Equities Fund
▫️Integrated Core Strategies Asia PTE Ltd
_Buying has already started and following FPCs already buying continuously_
▫️Emerging Markets Small Capitalisation Equity Index
▫️Ishares India SC Mauritius Co
▫️PIMCO Equity Series Pimco Rae Fund Emerging
▫️Emerging Markets Small Capitalisation Equity Index
▫️IShares Core MDCI UCITS ETF
▫️Northern Trust Collective Emerging Markets Small
▫️State Street Global Smallcap Equity Ex-US
▫️College Retirement Equities Fund
▫️Integrated Core Strategies Asia PTE Ltd
HIDDEN GEM:
*DO READ: Must portfolio buy*
*Prolife industries: CMP:Target: ₹200 (6 to 12 months)*
Only NSE ( 3000 shares Lot size)
Most undervalued dyes and pigment company
*Company trading at just 5-6 forward PE vs peers trading at PE of 30+😱😵*
✅Company has *doubled capacities* and has started reaping its benefits from H2
✅ Promoter is a technocrat
✅ *Dyes prices have sky rocketed from Q3 onwards (sustainable and not just pent up)*
✅ Outlook for dyes and pigments very bright (high growth sector)
*Fundamentals:*♠️
• Highest half yearly sales for H1: ₹33 Cr
• H1FY21 EPS: ₹6.6🔥 (including Q1 of lockdown😮) vs FULL YEAR FY20 EPS: ₹9.9
• *Q3 and Q4 for dyes and pigments sector has been 🚀🚀. Company can report EPS of even ₹8 for H2*
• FY22 estimated EPS: ₹18 (conservative)
Peers sudarshan chemicals trading at PE of 33 and bodal chemicals trading at PE of 30. Looking at company performance, promoter integrity and capacity expansion, company deserves PE of at least 12 which brings us to a target of 200
*DO READ: Must portfolio buy*
*Prolife industries: CMP:Target: ₹200 (6 to 12 months)*
Only NSE ( 3000 shares Lot size)
Most undervalued dyes and pigment company
*Company trading at just 5-6 forward PE vs peers trading at PE of 30+😱😵*
✅Company has *doubled capacities* and has started reaping its benefits from H2
✅ Promoter is a technocrat
✅ *Dyes prices have sky rocketed from Q3 onwards (sustainable and not just pent up)*
✅ Outlook for dyes and pigments very bright (high growth sector)
*Fundamentals:*♠️
• Highest half yearly sales for H1: ₹33 Cr
• H1FY21 EPS: ₹6.6🔥 (including Q1 of lockdown😮) vs FULL YEAR FY20 EPS: ₹9.9
• *Q3 and Q4 for dyes and pigments sector has been 🚀🚀. Company can report EPS of even ₹8 for H2*
• FY22 estimated EPS: ₹18 (conservative)
Peers sudarshan chemicals trading at PE of 33 and bodal chemicals trading at PE of 30. Looking at company performance, promoter integrity and capacity expansion, company deserves PE of at least 12 which brings us to a target of 200
*Jindal Polyfilms - _BUY TP ₹1575_*
Equity - 44cr
*ROE of more than 35%*
ROCE of 33%
Book Value - ₹ 603
*Conservative FY22 Estimates*
▫️Revenue - 4925cr
▫️PAT - 985cr
▫️EPS - ₹225
*Co is trading at just 3.5x Forward P/E*
*FY21 Highlights*
▪️Revenue - 4082cr
▪️PAT - 791cr
▪️EPS - ₹181
▫️Operating margins have increased sharply to 27% vs 18% (+900 bps YoY)
▫️Co has Reduced Debt significantly during FY21
▫️Co has posted profit growth of 19% CAGR over last 5 years which will improve further, given the demand for its products.
▪️ *Co operates in the booming Packaging Films industry and is the largest player. FY22 and FY23 will be the best ever in cos history.*
▪️ *Co is trading extremely cheap at Forward P/E of just 3.5x even on conservative estimates.*
▪️ *Even if it manages to get a modest P/E of 7, stock price will easily cross _₹1575_ on a conservative basis.*
Equity - 44cr
*ROE of more than 35%*
ROCE of 33%
Book Value - ₹ 603
*Conservative FY22 Estimates*
▫️Revenue - 4925cr
▫️PAT - 985cr
▫️EPS - ₹225
*Co is trading at just 3.5x Forward P/E*
*FY21 Highlights*
▪️Revenue - 4082cr
▪️PAT - 791cr
▪️EPS - ₹181
▫️Operating margins have increased sharply to 27% vs 18% (+900 bps YoY)
▫️Co has Reduced Debt significantly during FY21
▫️Co has posted profit growth of 19% CAGR over last 5 years which will improve further, given the demand for its products.
▪️ *Co operates in the booming Packaging Films industry and is the largest player. FY22 and FY23 will be the best ever in cos history.*
▪️ *Co is trading extremely cheap at Forward P/E of just 3.5x even on conservative estimates.*
▪️ *Even if it manages to get a modest P/E of 7, stock price will easily cross _₹1575_ on a conservative basis.*
*Pharma Twins: Buy and Hold Tight*
*1 year target returns: 50-100%*
Clinical research👨🔬and formulations 🧪 combo. Must for portfolio considering prospects of pharma sector
(Snapshots below. Detailed report soon)
_________________________________
*1. Jeevan Scientific 👨🔬(JSTL) (BSE code: 538837)*
✅ *Clinical research will witness umpteen* growth in coming time.
✅This is most undervalued stock in this segment and has already started showing *highly improved performance*
✅Other clinical research companies trading at 20-30+ PE. We *estimate JSTL to notch up EPS of ₹16 for FY22.* Even a moderate PE of 15 will get the stock to a *target of ₹240*
✅Q3 EPS: ₹3.93. *EBITDA margins at a whopping 58.25%😵😵 for the quarter*.
✅ We estimate *Q4EPS of ₹5.5*. Dividend also coming. This itself can take the stock to 150 in short term
_________________________________
*2. Parmax Pharma Ltd🧪 (BSE code: 540359)*
➡️Stock trading @ 5xFY22EEPS
⏩Smallest mcap Pharma co
✅Company is engaged in the business of formulations. *Formulations business generally have a higher margin* as against API.
✅Company under performed in the FY 2018 and 2019. However, with pharma sector on a growth path, *company's performance is already improving*.
✅Q2 and Q3 of FY21 show that company is now out of survival mode and on a *growth path*
✅ *Q3* FY21 EPS: *₹4.12*🔥 with EBITDA margins at 20.57% vs FY19 EBITDA margins of 9.26%.
*1 year target returns: 50-100%*
Clinical research👨🔬and formulations 🧪 combo. Must for portfolio considering prospects of pharma sector
(Snapshots below. Detailed report soon)
_________________________________
*1. Jeevan Scientific 👨🔬(JSTL) (BSE code: 538837)*
✅ *Clinical research will witness umpteen* growth in coming time.
✅This is most undervalued stock in this segment and has already started showing *highly improved performance*
✅Other clinical research companies trading at 20-30+ PE. We *estimate JSTL to notch up EPS of ₹16 for FY22.* Even a moderate PE of 15 will get the stock to a *target of ₹240*
✅Q3 EPS: ₹3.93. *EBITDA margins at a whopping 58.25%😵😵 for the quarter*.
✅ We estimate *Q4EPS of ₹5.5*. Dividend also coming. This itself can take the stock to 150 in short term
_________________________________
*2. Parmax Pharma Ltd🧪 (BSE code: 540359)*
➡️Stock trading @ 5xFY22EEPS
⏩Smallest mcap Pharma co
✅Company is engaged in the business of formulations. *Formulations business generally have a higher margin* as against API.
✅Company under performed in the FY 2018 and 2019. However, with pharma sector on a growth path, *company's performance is already improving*.
✅Q2 and Q3 of FY21 show that company is now out of survival mode and on a *growth path*
✅ *Q3* FY21 EPS: *₹4.12*🔥 with EBITDA margins at 20.57% vs FY19 EBITDA margins of 9.26%.
Mahabank: Our final view
Almost 100% confident that it will be 1st to be privatized. Actually potential suitors are playing games with Investors
If Mahabank stock price goes up say to 40 before privatization, then these bidders will have to shell out Rs 50 or even higher. Hence intermittently, conflicting confusing news are spread through media to keep stock price down
If you have belief in DoW, Buy Buy Buy Mahabank for maha profits
DoW had recommended Eveready at 45 and Religare at 28-30
Almost 100% confident that it will be 1st to be privatized. Actually potential suitors are playing games with Investors
If Mahabank stock price goes up say to 40 before privatization, then these bidders will have to shell out Rs 50 or even higher. Hence intermittently, conflicting confusing news are spread through media to keep stock price down
If you have belief in DoW, Buy Buy Buy Mahabank for maha profits
DoW had recommended Eveready at 45 and Religare at 28-30
PNB: Latest Technical
PNB started showing weakness from levels of Rs44 where it made a double top. It has already come down by 10 percent and can slowly come down to levels of Rs36 to 38. Aggressive traders can short with a tight stop loss of Rs43 for targets of 38 and 36.. Personal due diligence advised
Since presently under ban, delivery based selling is advised. Fundamentally stock is overvalued
PNB started showing weakness from levels of Rs44 where it made a double top. It has already come down by 10 percent and can slowly come down to levels of Rs36 to 38. Aggressive traders can short with a tight stop loss of Rs43 for targets of 38 and 36.. Personal due diligence advised
Since presently under ban, delivery based selling is advised. Fundamentally stock is overvalued
➡️MAHABANK bid should be àt 40 and above
https://www.sify.com/finance/niti-aayog-submits-privatisation-list-bank-of-maha-central-bank-top-candidates-news-news-vgdpkOcgfgich.html
https://www.sify.com/finance/niti-aayog-submits-privatisation-list-bank-of-maha-central-bank-top-candidates-news-news-vgdpkOcgfgich.html
Sify
NITI Aayog submits privatisation list, Bank of Maha, Central Bank top candidates
NITI Aayog has submitted the names of two public sector banks (PSBs) and one public sector general insurer, which can be sold off under the governments new privatisation policy, to the Core Group of Secretaries on Disinvestment.
Do not miss BUY IGPL cmp 610 Super Chart structure Short term TGT 712/834.
As per fundamentals and recent results Abv 850 closing minimum 2x Tgts
View Invalid below 540 closing. Low risk very high reward setup.
As per fundamentals and recent results Abv 850 closing minimum 2x Tgts
View Invalid below 540 closing. Low risk very high reward setup.
*Life Insurance*
*Strong performance for May month*
*Sector: Life Insurance*
*View: Positive*
The life insurance industry’s May 2021 provisional numbers came in strong for most listed private players on annualised premium equivalent (APE) basis and new business premium (NBP) basis. For private companies, APE (Calculated) for May 2021 grew by 6% (better than industry performance which saw a decline of ~27.7% in May 2021). Growth performance is indicative of continued strong growth traction, but it is also partly attributable to a lower base effect, with May 2020 impacted by the lockdown. On NBP basis, the private industry saw a healthy increase of 14.2% y-o-y for May (better than industry decline of 5.5% in May 2021).
*Sector*
*Outlook Insurance continues to be attractive:* We believe most bank-backed insurance companies have resilience. Players such as BALIC and Max Life Insurance have strong and stable bancassurance partners to add to their own distribution channel. Among listed major players, Bajaj Allianz and Max Life have been strong performers, but HDFC Life posted strongest performance, aided by a favourable business mix (lower ULIP dependency), improving prices, and resumption of bancassurance channels business.
*Our Call*
*Strong performance continues, structural growth drivers well in place:* The insurance industry has bounced back successfully from shadows of the first wave of the pandemic. We stay positive on the insurance sector, particularly for players with a favourable business mix (protection and retiral product segments) and strong distribution network (proprietary, bancassurance etc). Structural demand for insurance across mortality, morbidity, and longevity coverage remains high.
*Investment picks:* Our preferred picks are HDFC Life, ICICI Prudential, Max Financial (holding company of Max Life Insurance), and Bajaj Finserv (holding company of Bajaj Allianz Life). We believe these companies have a strong balance sheet, are well capitalised (for the long term), have healthy operating metrics, and are well placed to ride over challenges.
*Key Risks* Delayed recovery in economic growth and resurgence of COVID-19 cases, among others, may impact premium growth as well as investment income for insurance companies.
*Strong performance for May month*
*Sector: Life Insurance*
*View: Positive*
The life insurance industry’s May 2021 provisional numbers came in strong for most listed private players on annualised premium equivalent (APE) basis and new business premium (NBP) basis. For private companies, APE (Calculated) for May 2021 grew by 6% (better than industry performance which saw a decline of ~27.7% in May 2021). Growth performance is indicative of continued strong growth traction, but it is also partly attributable to a lower base effect, with May 2020 impacted by the lockdown. On NBP basis, the private industry saw a healthy increase of 14.2% y-o-y for May (better than industry decline of 5.5% in May 2021).
*Sector*
*Outlook Insurance continues to be attractive:* We believe most bank-backed insurance companies have resilience. Players such as BALIC and Max Life Insurance have strong and stable bancassurance partners to add to their own distribution channel. Among listed major players, Bajaj Allianz and Max Life have been strong performers, but HDFC Life posted strongest performance, aided by a favourable business mix (lower ULIP dependency), improving prices, and resumption of bancassurance channels business.
*Our Call*
*Strong performance continues, structural growth drivers well in place:* The insurance industry has bounced back successfully from shadows of the first wave of the pandemic. We stay positive on the insurance sector, particularly for players with a favourable business mix (protection and retiral product segments) and strong distribution network (proprietary, bancassurance etc). Structural demand for insurance across mortality, morbidity, and longevity coverage remains high.
*Investment picks:* Our preferred picks are HDFC Life, ICICI Prudential, Max Financial (holding company of Max Life Insurance), and Bajaj Finserv (holding company of Bajaj Allianz Life). We believe these companies have a strong balance sheet, are well capitalised (for the long term), have healthy operating metrics, and are well placed to ride over challenges.
*Key Risks* Delayed recovery in economic growth and resurgence of COVID-19 cases, among others, may impact premium growth as well as investment income for insurance companies.
Money Market Update
The rupee ended at 72.89 against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday as compared to Monday's closing of 72.80.
The rupee ended at 72.89 against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday as compared to Monday's closing of 72.80.
Trading Tweaks
Ex-Date Dividend: Rallis India, Huhtamaki India
Ex-Date Rights Issue: Vikas EcoTech
Price Band Revised From 10% To 5%: Affle (India), Ashapura Minechem, Adani Total Gas, Borosil Renewables, Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances, Indo Rama Synthetics (India), Manali Petrochemical, Praj Industries, Supreme Petrochem
Price Band Revised From 20% To 10%: Adani Power, Hinduja Global Solutions,NACL Industries, NIIT
Ex-Date Dividend: Rallis India, Huhtamaki India
Ex-Date Rights Issue: Vikas EcoTech
Price Band Revised From 10% To 5%: Affle (India), Ashapura Minechem, Adani Total Gas, Borosil Renewables, Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances, Indo Rama Synthetics (India), Manali Petrochemical, Praj Industries, Supreme Petrochem
Price Band Revised From 20% To 10%: Adani Power, Hinduja Global Solutions,NACL Industries, NIIT