KEERTHI: Do Not Miss. Buy before Q4
➡️Looking at blockbuster Q4 from cement Industry, Keerthi Industries can report Rs 10 EPS for Q4FY21 Vs 61 lakh Loss in Q4FY20
*Cheapest Cement Stock:* Keerthi Industries.BSE 518011
Target: ₹200+
✅Stock tdg @ 3.3xFY21 EPS. Promoter 74.92%. Zero pledge
✅ 9mFY21 EPS 19.12
Cement division operates under the brand Suvarna cements in *South India* (Cement prices & demand highest in South India). This segment comprises 90% of the revenue. With boom in cement sector (this is not pent up demand but is sustainable and will continue to grow), this is our top pick.
*Prospects:*
Promoters have acquired 😱 *150 acres land*😱 (Yes, you heard it right, 150 acres) to venture in the sugar sector.
An integrated sugar project of 3,500 TCD with 26 MW cozen power plant, 50 KLPD distillery is being set up in Karnataka and have received in principle approval and various clearances and work is *already in progress*
*Financials:*
BV: ₹87
Equity: 8Cr
Market cap: ₹73Cr
TTM turnover: ₹210Cr
Promoters holding: 74.92%
____________________________
*Q2+Q3:* YoY (FY21 vs FY20) comparison:
NP ₹15.33 cr🔥 vs (₹6.45)
EPS ₹19.12 vs (₹8.04) YoY
EBITDA ₹28.25 cr vs (₹3.16 cr)
____________________________
➡️Looking at blockbuster Q4 from cement Industry, Keerthi Industries can report Rs 10 EPS for Q4FY21 Vs 61 lakh Loss in Q4FY20
*Cheapest Cement Stock:* Keerthi Industries.BSE 518011
Target: ₹200+
✅Stock tdg @ 3.3xFY21 EPS. Promoter 74.92%. Zero pledge
✅ 9mFY21 EPS 19.12
Cement division operates under the brand Suvarna cements in *South India* (Cement prices & demand highest in South India). This segment comprises 90% of the revenue. With boom in cement sector (this is not pent up demand but is sustainable and will continue to grow), this is our top pick.
*Prospects:*
Promoters have acquired 😱 *150 acres land*😱 (Yes, you heard it right, 150 acres) to venture in the sugar sector.
An integrated sugar project of 3,500 TCD with 26 MW cozen power plant, 50 KLPD distillery is being set up in Karnataka and have received in principle approval and various clearances and work is *already in progress*
*Financials:*
BV: ₹87
Equity: 8Cr
Market cap: ₹73Cr
TTM turnover: ₹210Cr
Promoters holding: 74.92%
____________________________
*Q2+Q3:* YoY (FY21 vs FY20) comparison:
NP ₹15.33 cr🔥 vs (₹6.45)
EPS ₹19.12 vs (₹8.04) YoY
EBITDA ₹28.25 cr vs (₹3.16 cr)
____________________________
*Bank of Maharashtra* - Q4FY21 Earnings Update
*_Exemplary Performance_*
Key Highlights
▫️Net Interest Income up by 35% to 1383cr vs 1023cr YoY
▫️Net Interest Margin (NIM) improved to 3.11% as against 2.41% (+70 bps YoY)
▫️Net profit grew by 187% to Rs 165cr vs 58cr YoY
▫️Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) improved to 90% from 84% (+600bps YoY)
▫️Cost of Funds reduced by 50bps to 3.60% vs 4.10% YoY
▫️Cost of Deposits down significantly to 3.97% vs 4.68% (Big Positive)
▫️Cost to income ratio improved by 1673 basis points to 41%
🚀Total Business at 2,81,659cr vs 2,44,955cr (+15% YoY)
🚀CASA grew to 93,945cr vs 75,475cr (+24% YoY)
🚀CASA ratio at 54% vs 50.3% (+370bps YoY)
💎GNPA at 7.23% vs 12.81% (558bps Improvement)
💎NNPA at 2.48% vs 4.77% (229bps Improvement)
💎Capital Adequacy Ratio improved to 14.5% from 13.5% (+100bps YoY)
*_At a time when most banks are reporting a deterioration in Earnings and Asset quality, Bank of Maharashtra has reported Stellar performance on every parameter_ .*
*_Performance has improved significantly and will only keep getting better with ever increasing Digital footprint for the bank_*
*_Exemplary Performance_*
Key Highlights
▫️Net Interest Income up by 35% to 1383cr vs 1023cr YoY
▫️Net Interest Margin (NIM) improved to 3.11% as against 2.41% (+70 bps YoY)
▫️Net profit grew by 187% to Rs 165cr vs 58cr YoY
▫️Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) improved to 90% from 84% (+600bps YoY)
▫️Cost of Funds reduced by 50bps to 3.60% vs 4.10% YoY
▫️Cost of Deposits down significantly to 3.97% vs 4.68% (Big Positive)
▫️Cost to income ratio improved by 1673 basis points to 41%
🚀Total Business at 2,81,659cr vs 2,44,955cr (+15% YoY)
🚀CASA grew to 93,945cr vs 75,475cr (+24% YoY)
🚀CASA ratio at 54% vs 50.3% (+370bps YoY)
💎GNPA at 7.23% vs 12.81% (558bps Improvement)
💎NNPA at 2.48% vs 4.77% (229bps Improvement)
💎Capital Adequacy Ratio improved to 14.5% from 13.5% (+100bps YoY)
*_At a time when most banks are reporting a deterioration in Earnings and Asset quality, Bank of Maharashtra has reported Stellar performance on every parameter_ .*
*_Performance has improved significantly and will only keep getting better with ever increasing Digital footprint for the bank_*
*Simran farms: TP 150-200*
Poultry industry doing exceedingly well as evident from Q4 of Venky which has reported NP of 107 Cs Vs Loss of 97 Cr. Means Simran should also report blockbuster Q4. Due to rising demand for non-veg and expanding QSRs, poultry industry and company like SIMRAN has bright prospects
✅ Glance at Venky’s Q4FY21 (YoY comparison as QoQ not suitable for seasonal products):
*Q4FY21* *Q4FY20*
Revenue 941 661
EBITDA 111🚀 (118)
PBT 107🔥 (97)
✅Looking at above, Simran farms Q4 EPS can be easily ₹20-25 (as there should be tax write back as well due to carry forward losses)
Thus, *FY20EEPS: ₹70-75*🔥🔥
*Share trading at just 1.5 PE*😮😮
✅Lifetime high volume: 110,000 shares traded on 10th May at upper circuit. This shows superb numbers coming
Poultry industry doing exceedingly well as evident from Q4 of Venky which has reported NP of 107 Cs Vs Loss of 97 Cr. Means Simran should also report blockbuster Q4. Due to rising demand for non-veg and expanding QSRs, poultry industry and company like SIMRAN has bright prospects
✅ Glance at Venky’s Q4FY21 (YoY comparison as QoQ not suitable for seasonal products):
*Q4FY21* *Q4FY20*
Revenue 941 661
EBITDA 111🚀 (118)
PBT 107🔥 (97)
✅Looking at above, Simran farms Q4 EPS can be easily ₹20-25 (as there should be tax write back as well due to carry forward losses)
Thus, *FY20EEPS: ₹70-75*🔥🔥
*Share trading at just 1.5 PE*😮😮
✅Lifetime high volume: 110,000 shares traded on 10th May at upper circuit. This shows superb numbers coming
KESORAM INDUSTRIES: TP 150
After demerger of Tyre biz, KESORAM industries has 7.25 million ton cement capacity. Subsequent to demerger, GS has taken over entire debt under a structured deal infusing additional funds which has enabled KESORAM to achieve higher production in Q4
Q4FY21~ Company has reported revenue of 806 Cr and NP Rs 71 Cr ( before one off). EBITDA whopping 137 Cr
FY22 can report EBITDA of 500 Cr
HoS There is a possibility of KESORAM getting merged with Ultratech after 12-15 months from now ( when stock price crosses 150)
After demerger of Tyre biz, KESORAM industries has 7.25 million ton cement capacity. Subsequent to demerger, GS has taken over entire debt under a structured deal infusing additional funds which has enabled KESORAM to achieve higher production in Q4
Q4FY21~ Company has reported revenue of 806 Cr and NP Rs 71 Cr ( before one off). EBITDA whopping 137 Cr
FY22 can report EBITDA of 500 Cr
HoS There is a possibility of KESORAM getting merged with Ultratech after 12-15 months from now ( when stock price crosses 150)
Natraj proteins Ltd: MOST UNDERVALUED. HIGH CONVCTION
Target: 90
✅ Edible Oil prices have touched All Time High. If oil prices don't decline, Natraj Proteins can be even 200 in 2 years
Play out the edible oil theme with this potential mulitbagger
Stock can easily triple from here, just look at the fundamentals👇
Book value: 86 (Tdg just @0.38 book)
*Market cap just 12 Cr😵 as against Q3 sales of 46Cr (FY22E sales: 180Cr)*
Q3FY21 EPS: ₹6.9🔥🔥🔥
With edible oil prices up further in Q4 and rising demand, we estimate Q4 EPS of ₹8-10
FY22EEPS: ₹25
Considering the above factors, company can easily have market cap of ₹40-50 cr (As against currently ₹12 cr)
Target: 90
✅ Edible Oil prices have touched All Time High. If oil prices don't decline, Natraj Proteins can be even 200 in 2 years
Play out the edible oil theme with this potential mulitbagger
Stock can easily triple from here, just look at the fundamentals👇
Book value: 86 (Tdg just @0.38 book)
*Market cap just 12 Cr😵 as against Q3 sales of 46Cr (FY22E sales: 180Cr)*
Q3FY21 EPS: ₹6.9🔥🔥🔥
With edible oil prices up further in Q4 and rising demand, we estimate Q4 EPS of ₹8-10
FY22EEPS: ₹25
Considering the above factors, company can easily have market cap of ₹40-50 cr (As against currently ₹12 cr)
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SAGARSOFT (India) Ltd: CMP: ₹118
TP: Rs 140/175
➡️Sagar Cement group co
Post preferential issue, stock can spurt like Ashapura Minechem (70 to 170)
✅ Declared ₹2.5 dividend
✅ Q4 EBITDA ₹2.81cr vs ₹1.34cr YoY
✅ Q4 PAT ₹1.40cr va ₹0.40cr YoY
✅ FY21 EPS ₹9.62 vs FY20EPS of ₹4.21
✅ Acquisiton of 100% stake in US based company: IT CATS LLC. The company provides the following technology related services:
• Seb solutions
• Mobile solutions
• Analytics
• Consulting
✅With this acquisition, company on path of expansion. Revenue to be 3x
✅ Prefential allotment of equity shares/ convertible warrants to promoter ( Stake increase Big Positive)
TP: Rs 140/175
➡️Sagar Cement group co
Post preferential issue, stock can spurt like Ashapura Minechem (70 to 170)
✅ Declared ₹2.5 dividend
✅ Q4 EBITDA ₹2.81cr vs ₹1.34cr YoY
✅ Q4 PAT ₹1.40cr va ₹0.40cr YoY
✅ FY21 EPS ₹9.62 vs FY20EPS of ₹4.21
✅ Acquisiton of 100% stake in US based company: IT CATS LLC. The company provides the following technology related services:
• Seb solutions
• Mobile solutions
• Analytics
• Consulting
✅With this acquisition, company on path of expansion. Revenue to be 3x
✅ Prefential allotment of equity shares/ convertible warrants to promoter ( Stake increase Big Positive)
*Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. - C* | *CMP* Rs. 121 | *M Cap* Rs. 29297 Cr |
*Result has improved*
➡️Q4 PAT up by 162% YoY. Once Birla Sun Life IPO hits market, AB Capital TP Rs 160
_Segment Revenue_
NBFC revenue came at Rs. 1379.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 1502.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1333.2 Cr
Life insurance revenue came at Rs. 3244.3 Cr vs YoY Rs. 2539.4 Cr, QoQ Rs. 2824.8 Cr
Asset Management revenue came at Rs. 331.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 277.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 321.1 Cr
General insurance Broking revenue came at Rs. 164.6 Cr vs YoY Rs. 114.9 Cr, QoQ Rs. 185.3 Cr
Money Broking revenue came at Rs. 49.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 45.7 Cr, QoQ Rs. 49.2 Cr
Health insurance revenue came at Rs. 424.7 Cr vs YoY Rs. 296 Cr, QoQ Rs. 287.5 Cr
Other Financial Services revenue came at Rs. 30 Cr vs YoY Rs. 31.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 36 Cr
Total Income came at Rs. 5929.2 Cr vs YoY Rs. 5138.1 Cr, QoQ Rs. 5362.8 Cr
PBT came at Rs. 500.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 138.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 401.1 Cr
PAT came at Rs. 375.2 Cr vs YoY Rs. 143.7 Cr, QoQ Rs. 288.7 Cr
AMC AUM's came at Rs. 262875 Cr vs YoY Rs. 245677.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 255458 Cr
AMC market share declined slightly to 9.2% from QoQ 9.35%
Individual Life Insurance market share was constant QoQ at 4.5%
*Result has improved*
➡️Q4 PAT up by 162% YoY. Once Birla Sun Life IPO hits market, AB Capital TP Rs 160
_Segment Revenue_
NBFC revenue came at Rs. 1379.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 1502.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1333.2 Cr
Life insurance revenue came at Rs. 3244.3 Cr vs YoY Rs. 2539.4 Cr, QoQ Rs. 2824.8 Cr
Asset Management revenue came at Rs. 331.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 277.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 321.1 Cr
General insurance Broking revenue came at Rs. 164.6 Cr vs YoY Rs. 114.9 Cr, QoQ Rs. 185.3 Cr
Money Broking revenue came at Rs. 49.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 45.7 Cr, QoQ Rs. 49.2 Cr
Health insurance revenue came at Rs. 424.7 Cr vs YoY Rs. 296 Cr, QoQ Rs. 287.5 Cr
Other Financial Services revenue came at Rs. 30 Cr vs YoY Rs. 31.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 36 Cr
Total Income came at Rs. 5929.2 Cr vs YoY Rs. 5138.1 Cr, QoQ Rs. 5362.8 Cr
PBT came at Rs. 500.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. 138.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 401.1 Cr
PAT came at Rs. 375.2 Cr vs YoY Rs. 143.7 Cr, QoQ Rs. 288.7 Cr
AMC AUM's came at Rs. 262875 Cr vs YoY Rs. 245677.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 255458 Cr
AMC market share declined slightly to 9.2% from QoQ 9.35%
Individual Life Insurance market share was constant QoQ at 4.5%
NAHAR SPG: Intrinsic Value/Potential
TP: ₹ 190
🌈 Five Lakh Spindles, 12.5 million Garment capacity, 4.5 TPD process house. New plant with same capacity will entail 2700 Cr capex
🌈 Sales 2327 Cr, Ebidta 243 Cr EPS Rs 18.22 Cash EPS Rs 41.41 in FY19
🌈 Q3FY21Ebidta 64Cr vs 9 Cr Ebidta Loss Q3FY20
🌈 Q4FY21E ebidta 85 Cr Vs 15 Cr Ebidta Loss Q4FY20
🌈 Although cotton yarn prices currently 30% up, as conservative working even if we take 20% rise,
✈️ FY22E Ebidta 300 Cr PBT 170 Cr PAT 120 Cr. EPS Rs. ₹33.5 Cash EPS Rs ₹55.9
Possible that Nahar Spinning can surpass it's previous high of 190.
Important: New Spinning mill cost Rs 50000/spindle. Hence, well established big mills like Nahar Spinning will continue to have big advantage of Head start
Personal due diligence advised. TP subject to mkt conditions
TP: ₹ 190
🌈 Five Lakh Spindles, 12.5 million Garment capacity, 4.5 TPD process house. New plant with same capacity will entail 2700 Cr capex
🌈 Sales 2327 Cr, Ebidta 243 Cr EPS Rs 18.22 Cash EPS Rs 41.41 in FY19
🌈 Q3FY21Ebidta 64Cr vs 9 Cr Ebidta Loss Q3FY20
🌈 Q4FY21E ebidta 85 Cr Vs 15 Cr Ebidta Loss Q4FY20
🌈 Although cotton yarn prices currently 30% up, as conservative working even if we take 20% rise,
✈️ FY22E Ebidta 300 Cr PBT 170 Cr PAT 120 Cr. EPS Rs. ₹33.5 Cash EPS Rs ₹55.9
Possible that Nahar Spinning can surpass it's previous high of 190.
Important: New Spinning mill cost Rs 50000/spindle. Hence, well established big mills like Nahar Spinning will continue to have big advantage of Head start
Personal due diligence advised. TP subject to mkt conditions