*Trend and Retracement*

*🎄What is Uptrend ?*

During an uptrend, price line makes a constant formation of higher tops and bottom.
During this uptrend, demand is much greater than the supply. All the bottoms are higher which signifies that there is a constant demand in the market which is eventually coming at a higher price.
In a single word, there is a constant buyer at a comparatively higher rate and demand is thereby so strong that it pushes the price upward to a new horizon.

*❤️What is Downtrend ?*

During a downtrend, price creates lower tops and lower bottoms.
All the subsequent tops would be lower than the previous one and as well as the bottom too.
In a downtrend, supply is much more than demand.
A lower top indicates that the sellers are interested to sell constantly at a lower price.
Supply is so strong that it pushes the price to a new lower dimension.

*🐢What is Choppy trend ?*

A choppy trend or a flat trend is also popularly known as a sideways movement.
During this choppy trend, price does not make any clear-cut top or bottom, rather it moves in a horizontal fashion.
During this phase demand and supply both are equal and price keeps on moving within a range bound zone.

*🎯What Is a Retracement ?*

A Retracement is a technical term used to identify a minor pullback or change in the direction of a financial instrument, such as a stock or index.
• Retracements are temporary in nature and do not indicate a shift in the larger trend.
Retracements are not the same as reversals—with the latter, the price of the security must breach support or resistance levels.
A retracement is not easy to identify because it can easily be mistaken for a reversal.

*Check out what’s buzzing on D-Street👇👇👇*
https://moneytimes.in/stock-market-news-updates-tower-talk/

*MONEY TIMES TALK*
*_MAY 15, 2021_*

*Dr. Reddy’s Labs* has received nod from DRDO for its new anti-Covid drug. A big positive for this company. Buy.

*GE Shipping* posted an excellent FY 21 with an EPS at Rs. 62.38 v/s Rs. 13.91 in FY20 and declared 90% dividend. The rising Baltic freight index translates into rising freight rates. A good long term share to add.

*HFCL* posted a stellar Q4 with NP rising exponentially to Rs. 84.67 cr. v/s Rs. 5.78 cr. last year. The management is optimistic on the back of growing demand from Indian and overseas markets. Buy and retain for 2 years.

*An Ahmedabad based analyst recommends to buy BGR Energy Systems, Dhunseri Ventures, Ind-Swift Labs, Loyal Textile Mills, Lahoti Overseas, Rajoo Engineers, Shilp Gravures, Vipul Organics and Vasundhara Rasayan.*

*Interglobe Aviation (Indigo Airlines)* plans to raise Rs. 3000 cr. via QIP. It is one of the fastest growing low-cost carriers in the world and can be bought selectively with strict stop loss limits.

*Neuland Laboratories* posted Q4 profit of Rs. 17 cr. against a loss of Rs. 9.3 cr. in Q4FY20 due focus on complex APIs and the CMS business. The co. will continue this sustainable growth.

*Granules India* posted 38% rise in Q4 NP at Rs. 128 cr. on 33% rise in revenue to Rs. 799 cr. It also made some new launches and more products are in the pipeline. Add.

*Huhtamaki India’s* Q1CY21 PAT fell 41% YoY to Rs. 16.7 cr. from Rs. 27.31 cr. in Q1CY20. Although the packaging industry is faring well, these results are disappointing. Investors advised to exit.

*Linde India’s* Q1CY21 PAT spurts to Rs 303 cr. from Rs. 39.03 cr. in Q1CY20 on the back of frantic oxygen demand in the current Covid-19 pandemic.

*Saregama*, which is into entertainment including regional and Indian films and songs posted 151% higher Q4 NP at Rs. 37 cr. The company expects the performance to continue. Add.

*ITDC Cementation* has won a Rs. 950 cr. order from GoI for roads & bridges, drainage, waste management and sewage plants, etc. A positive for the Company. Add.

Mucomycosis, also called black fungus, threatens patients recovering from Covid as it can cause loss of vision and even death. *Gufic Biosciences*’ Lypobampoterech helps to cure this disease. A big jump is price in its share is imminent. A screaming buy.

Although the near term demand can be under pressure, *Kansai Nerolac* can be a key beneficiary of the recovery in decorative and industrial paints. A good long term bet. Add.

*Navin Fluorine* is confident of notching higher sales and long term contracts in the high value segment. The share price may continue its onward march. Accumulate.

The Union government has approved Rs. 18100 cr. PLI sops to battery manufactures to cut reliance on imported products. *Amararaja Batteries* can be a big beneficiary. Buy.

Upcoming Results

👉🏻Pfizer Ltd Board to consider FY21 results & Dividend on May 26, 2021
👉🏻JK Cement Ltd Board to consider FY21 results & Dividend on June 12, 2021
👉🏻Alkem Laboratories Ltd Board to consider FY21 results & Final Dividend on May 25, 2021
👉🏻SBI board to consider FY21 results, dividend on May 21, 2021
👉🏻Balaji Amines Ltd Board to consider FY21 results & Dividend on May 24, 2021
👉🏻Kirloskar Brothers Ltd Board to consider Dividend on May 25, 2021
👉🏻Wheels India Ltd board to consider final dividend on May 21, 2021
👉🏻Acrysil Ltd board to consider Q4, FY21 results, final dividend on May 20, 2021
👉🏻Thermax Ltd Board to consider FY21 results & Dividend on May 25, 2021

Welspun India - Tender Route Buyback Approved

Buyback Price : 120/-
Buyback Size (in ₹) : 200 Crore

Buyback Size (in Shares) : 1,66,66,667 shares
Retail Quota - 25,00,000 shares

Record Date - 26 May

GST MEETING on 28 May

Agenda Of GST meeting will be GST rates on Various medical devices ,Essential drugs & Other covid related issues

IPO s expected to open by June 2021

-Glenmark Life
-AB Sunlife
-Seven Island Shipping
-India Pesticides
-Sona BLW
-KIMS
-Arohan Financial
-Dodla Dairy
-Shyam Metallics

*Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 648 | *M Cap* Rs. 2072 Cr | *52 W H/L* 665/141
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result has improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 520.4 Cr (29.2% QoQ, 117.3% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 402.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 239.6 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 106.1 Cr (39.9% QoQ, 196.2% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 75.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 35.8 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 20.4% vs QoQ 18.8%, YoY 15%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 33.9 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 14.8 Cr, YoY Rs. -7.6 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 10.6
Share is trading at P/E of 31.2x FY22E EPS

*Geojit Financial Services Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 67 | *M Cap* Rs. 1597 Cr | *52 W H/L* 68/19
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result has improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 121.4 Cr (16.6% QoQ, 47.5% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 104.1 Cr, YoY Rs. 82.3 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 53.3 Cr (15% QoQ, 66.1% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 46.4 Cr, YoY Rs. 32.1 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 43.9% vs QoQ 44.6%, YoY 39%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 36.4 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 30.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 18.8 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 1.5
Share is trading at P/E of 13x TTM EPS

MARKET WIZARD NEWSLETTER ISSUE 10

Fundamental Stocks

▶️The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd
▶️Mangalam Cement Ltd
▶️Sanofi India Ltd
▶️HSIL Ltd

Technical Stocks

▶️The Anup Engineering Ltd
▶️Equitas Holdings Ltd
▶️Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd
▶️Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd
▶️Shalimar Paints Ltd (Special Pick)

TEAM MARKET WIZARD

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*Cipla – Q4FY21 Concall Update – Nirmal Bang Sec.*
*Outlook – Positive*
The management sounded confident of sustaining and improving margins going forward. India business would see uptick from ramp up in Covid drugs whereas US is likely to grow on account of new launches

The stock is trading at 26.4xFY22E our earnings

• For full year the margins range has moved from historical 16-19% to 22% in FY22 and which, per management, is sustainable and likely to get improved hereon
• Gross margins were 60% - had ~200 bps impact due to inventory writeoff and certain overhead charge offs and one time sale adjustment for Albuterol. also due to product mix and seasonality, margins are lower in Q4; there is no structural changes in the business
• R&D – Rs 277 cr – as percent of sales, it is likely to moderate going forward
• On full year basis, Covid medicine contributes ~4% of total revenues
• *Going forward*
o Ramping up Covid portfolio supply to increase availability and maximize patients reach
o Scaling up businesses across branded and generic DTMs of Europe and Emerging markets through execution on organic and partnered launches including biosimilars
o Expanding lung leadership globally and maximising value opportunity in US complex generics by prioritizing key launches with focused execution and collaborating with regulatory authorities
o Maintain market beating growth in large branded and unbranded generic franchises of India, South Africa and augment consumer wellness franchise

*India*
• Healthy volume trends emerging in core portfolio
• Witnessing strong volume trends across acute and respiratory portfolio
• Trade generics business - Healthy order flow across regions during the quarter; Strong demand tailwinds emerging across portfolio
• Consumer Health Biz – Rs 360 cr rev in FY21 - Continued traction in consumer brands post transfer from trade generics business;
• *Witnessing strong tailwinds which are likely to play out in Q1 and onwards* on back of surge in Covid drugs, including Remdesivir and expected pick up in the antibody cocktail

*US Generics*
• $138 mn Q4 rev; FY21 $551 mn
• Had one time shelf stock adjustments for Albuterol due to entry of a competitor
• Continued market share expansion in overall Albuterol market and growth in institutional business - *see some more expansion in Albuterol going forward* - currently has 16.5% market share
• US’s full year profitability is very close to company level profitability
• Closely working with USFDA on gAdvair –would take 2-2.5 yrs for approval from the filed date which was May’20
• 2 Partnered peptide injectable filings during in FY21; includes one new drug application
• Full year FY21 EBITDA margins tracking close to overall company level
• *Reasonable launches in FY22 to drive the growth in US however big launches in FY23*
• Paclitaxel is likely to launch in next few months and Lanthanum Carbonate is likely to get launched in 2HFY23


*SAGA*
• South Africa - Solid momentum in private business; tender business in-line with expectations

*Other markets*
• _Emerging markets_ - Continued healthy demand across all regions; Expanded partnership for 4 biosimilars in Australia & New Zealand
• _Europe_ - grew 7% yoy in Q4, Front-end market entry into Spain
• _API_ - Continued traction with global seedings & lock-ins

*Dr Reddy – Q4FY21 Concall Update – Nirmal Bang Sec.*
*Outlook – Positive for long term*
_The growth pillars are intact and the company is committed moving towards its aspirational target of 25% EBITDA margins. The jealthy number of launches in US (26-28/yr) and Covid related portfolio in India are likely to drive the growth in near term_

The stock is trading at 27xFY22E consensus earnings


• Launched Sputnik V vaccine today – have rights for 250 mn doses – now to Aug the primary supply would be from Russia and by sept Indian supplies can start
• Revenue growth was supported by new product launches, scale up in wockhardt portfolio, entry in new markets, and improvement in base business volume. However, the sequential decline is due to muted branded business and milestone payment received in Q3
• R&D for Q4 - Rs 409 cr – 8.7% of sales
• ETR for FY21 was at 32.4% which was on the higher side due to non-recognition of deferred tax assets. *ETR for FY22 is expected to be 25-26%*

*North America*
• Revenue of $237mn, a decline of 3% yoy
• The YoY decline was primarily on account of higher volumes during Q4 last year due to COVID-19 related stocking up and price erosion. The QoQ growth was driven by volume traction in the base business and new product launches partly offset by price erosion.
• The year was benefited by new launches, scale up of existing products and a favorable forex rate, which was partially offset by price erosion
• During this quarter, Dr Reddy launched 6 new products – Vigabatrin tablets (CGT status granted), Febuxostat tablets, Capecitabine tablets, Fluphenazine Hydrochloride tablets, Lansoprazole OD tablets and Abiraterone Acetate in Canada.
• For FY21, the company launched 28 new products. *It expects similar number of launches in FY22 as well*
• Copaxone – still working on the recent received CRL
• Unlikely to launch Copaxone and Nuvaring in FY22. Reply submitted to USFDA on Nuvaring in Jan’21. The response is expected by Oct’21
• gKuvan (500 mg) -approval and launch expected in 2HFY22
• gVascepa – expects launch in next couple of months
• gRevlimid – launch is expected in FY23

*Europe*
• Revenue was Eur 45 mn; YoY growth of 15% and QoQ decline of 5%. QoQ decline was on account of lower volumes in the base business and price erosion which was partly offset by new products launched during the quarter.
• Launched 3 products in Germany during the quarter and 40 in FY21
•

*India*
• Rev of Rs 845 cr rev, 22% yoy growth, QoQ decline of 12%. QoQ decline was led by reduction in covid drugs sales and seasonality. Adjusted for contribution from Wockhardt portfolio, revenues grew by 8% yoy in Q4
• Launched 2 new products

*Emerging Markets*
• Revenues for the quarter are Rs. 885 cr, YoY growth of 10%, QoQ decline of 8%
• Launched 31 products in Emerging Markets in Q4
• Business in China did well