*Tata Consumer Products – Q4FY21 Concall Update – Nirmal Bang Sec.*
*Outlook – Positive*
_The outlook is uncertain given the macro developments. However, we believe the fruits of efforts by new management are visible – for example India beverages had seen volume CAGR of 7.1% over FY17-20 whereas in FY21 it grew by 11.6%. Similarly, India foods grew by 3.4% over the same period however it has grown at 11.4% during FY21. On the positive side, tea inflation is likely to moderate with onset of new crop. In addition, the situation is improving in international markets due to improved pace of vaccinations. _
The stock is trading at 50x FY22E consensus earnings

During Q4FY21, India business topline accelerated while International business was soft due to pantry loading in the base quarter. Consolidated EBITDA growth was impacted by tea inflation in India and increased A&P investments, that more than offset the strong EBITDA growth in India food and International business.
PAT during Q4 up despite decline in EBITDA as the company had write offs last year

*India*
• For Q4, India Beverages volume growth was 23% and India Foods was 21%
• During the quarter, premium salt has grown by 70% yoy
• India tea at Rs 158/kg is still 50% higher than last year; the company carries inventory of 60-90 days hence it would some time to see the benefit of sequential decline in prices
• *Management expects Tea Inflation in India to moderate with the new crop*
• Tata Sampann has grown bit slow but that was a management’s conscious decision given the volatility in pulse prices. However, the management is very optimistic about this space and likely to increase the product range going forward
• Nourishco would see little impact of second wave of Covid however management is confident of stronger numbers ahead
• Vietnam running at 95-97% of capacity
• _Starbucks_ - the company continues to invest for future and continues to add stores
• *Double digit likely to continue in both Salt and tea*
• Have total 33-35% market share in total salt market
• During the year the company has gained market share both in Salt (160bps) and Tea (190 bps). The market share gain in Salt is coming from local unorganised players
• *Aiming for double digit revenue growth and strong EBITDA*
• Fruski has been relaunched and the company is getting good response from the pilot markets in Hyderabad and Vijayawada

*International tea business*
• As on date no loss-making international business in portfolio

*_Integration Process_*
• Process was completed in Feb’20; Distribution channel partner consolidation done; on track to double direct reach by Sep’21.
• Earlier the company had guided that they would generating Rs 100-150 cr of EBITDA synergies in 18-24 months. The company is currently realising Rs 5-7 cr/month cost savings, which is on track

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*Caplin Point – Q4FY21 Concall Update – Nirmal Bang Sec.*
*Outlook – Positive for Long term*

The stock is trading at 13.9x FY22E consensus earnings

• The company is in comfortable cash position of Rs 470 cr
• Have orders in hands $22-23mn from parent company and have enough raw materials to complete that and other export orders
• Expansion in Latam – shortly would start “stock and sale” in more parts of Latam like Bolivia, Peru, Chile and Colombia. The company is also entering bigger geographies like Mexico and Brazil; it has already received and supplied emergency order from Mexico. Further the company has received its 1st order from Brazil which is again an emergency purchase
• Starting the oncology drugs and injectables – the remodelling of the plant is already done. The tablet and capsule section is likely to be completed in 12-15 months
• Caplin’s general oral solid for regulated markets is likely to be completed in next 18-24 months. Further, the API plant for US injectables and oncology are also in progress
• The company is in process of starting 2 more injectable lines for onco
• Caplin Steriles (US) – FY21 – 30% growth despite challenges; though it is still in red (did EBITDA loss of Rs 24 cr in FY21) and burning parent company’s profits; the management is hopeful to cash breakeven in FY22 (at Rs 125-135cr); already launched 8 products and likely to launch seven more soon; *the management is aiming for $100 mn from Steriles by FY26 from Rs 90 cr sales in FY21, implying a CAGR of 52% over next 5 yrs*
• Have 10 ANDAs approved on Caplin’s own name and 5 on partner’s
• Looking on backward integration – through 2 routes – organic and inorganic – would finalise the details in next few weeks
• Looking for Rs 100-110 cr expansion in Caplin Steriles – would add 4 lines
• Getting into more complex products like emulsions and suspensions – both in injectable and ophthalmic
• Opex have gone up due to acquisitions done last year – despite this the margins were steady; *the management is confident of able to absorb these higher opex by next year and the company is likely to go back to original levels of EBITDA margins (33-35%) from current 30%*
• *Guidance – FY22 – 20% growth on top-line and bottom-line*; Rs1500-2000 cr cash in next 5-6 years
• Canada + Mexico – would contribute 15% of revenues in next 2 yrs
• Look to scale US business to 30% of revenues vs 8% in FY21
• Capex – Rs 300 cr over 24 months


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*Nitin Spinners Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 79 | *M Cap* Rs. 442 Cr | *52 W H/L* 96/27
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result has improved*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 511.5 Cr (9.6% QoQ, 34.6% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 466.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 380.1 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 104.2 Cr (40.7% QoQ, 91.6% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 74.1 Cr, YoY Rs. 54.4 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 20.4% vs QoQ 15.9%, YoY 14.3%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 42.9 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 23.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 6.5 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 7.6
Share is trading at P/E of 6.4x TTM EPS


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*Thyrocare Technologies Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 1059 | *M Cap* Rs. 5599 Cr | *52 W H/L* 1212/482
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result inline with expectation*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 146.8 Cr (6.2% QoQ, 44.8% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 148.4 Cr, QoQ Rs. 138.3 Cr, YoY Rs. 101.4 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 51.5 Cr (3.8% QoQ, 66.4% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 53.7 Cr, QoQ Rs. 49.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 31 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 35.1% vs expectation of 36.2%, QoQ 35.9%, YoY 30.5%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 37.8 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 37.3 Cr, QoQ Rs. 32.4 Cr, YoY Rs. 5 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 7.1
Share is trading at P/E of 36.3x FY22E EPS


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*RELIANCE POWER LTD.* | *CMP* Rs. 6 | *M Cap* Rs. 1689 Cr | *52 W H/L* 6.02/2
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result ok*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 1654.6 Cr (-12.8% QoQ, -8% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 1897.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 1798.1 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 897.2 Cr (-0.6% QoQ, 107.1% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 902.3 Cr, YoY Rs. 433.1 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 54.2% vs QoQ 47.6%, YoY 24.1%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 68.1 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 52.3 Cr, YoY Rs. -202.2 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 0.2
Share is trading at P/E of 7.5x TTM EPS

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Jefferies on @bandhanbank_in
BUY
TP Rs400 from Rs470
Higher NPLs; Risks From Covid 2 Drive Earnings Cut
Weak profit as expected, but NPLs disappoint
Disappointed by higher slippages
Faces credit risks from lockdowns
Cut est by 13% for FY22E & 11% for FY23E
Valtns are reasonable

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ICICI Sec on @bandhanbank_in
BUY
TP Rs465 from Rs501
Portfolio vulnerability comes to fore
Contingency buffer utilised in Q4FY21; not enough cushion left
NPA toll in Assam & WB marred Q4FY21 earnings
Bank didn’t pull back on growth despite a challenging year on asset quality

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ADAG lovers

RPower as we know it was one of the blockbuster IPOs of its time. With an issue price of ~ ₹405 to ₹450, it enjoyed a Market Capitalization of roughly ₹1L crore those days.

However during the IPO, the company *LITERALLY* had no business. Zero Portfolio of generating Power. Needless to say, EXTREMELY overvalued.

Anil Ambani tried to please the shareholders by issuing Bonus shares, thus taking the number of *Equity shares of R.Power to 280.5 cr*

Irrespective of the rising debt and coming up of various, RPower has NEVER gone for Equity dilution. They've solely relied on debt to finance their projects. Good Move IMO.

Due to the piling debt and R.Com issues, RPower suffered a MAJOR fall. Add to that, since AA (Anil Ambani) had pledged shares for raising debt, the banks invoked the pledge and sold off the shares in the open market to recover their Debt, thereby drastically reducing the promoter's stake in RPower. L&T finance started dumping shares in the open market which lead to this massive fall, followed by YesBank, Axis Bank, IDBI Trustees and so on. Hence the share price hammered.

On March 26, 2021, RPower made a LIFETIME low of ₹1 (a M.Cap of JUST ₹280.5cr).

The main thing is people have ignored RPower because of AA's name now. They often miss the fact that now RPower has an operating portfolio of *5960 MW* (approximately 6 GW). RPower has since the 2 precious Quarters been able to come into consecutive profits.

Total Liabilities of RPower: around ₹22k cr

Total assets of RPower: (Going bye replacement cost theory of Power sector, 1 MW = ₹10cr) so 6000MW = ₹60k cr worth of assets. Heck, even if it's ₹7 cr per MW, it'd be roughly ₹42k cr.

It was having issues servicing debt in the past BUT now it's been able to do so since the last 3 quarters, albeit slowly. Wilful defaulting on debt so that debt restructuring can be done (NOT Capital restructuring, mind you). They're doing everything to cut debt now.

RPower's main issue was VIPL (Vidarbha Power Industries Limited) (Butibori Plant) being non-operational, their captive coal mines being not so functional due to the regulatory policies of our Indian Government AND Samalkot Plant being partly non operational due to Gas constraints in that region. Today only, a portion of Samalkot Plant got sold to fetch ~ ₹1,200 cr in addition to ₹2,000 cr committed by the company to further deleverage themselves. They're also working on restructuring the debt (NOT NCLT) (No Equity Dilution either since that'd be senseless to do so, I'll explain later)

Now speaking WHY it's so *DEEPLY Undervalued:*

Valuation front:
R.Power's Book Value is ~₹47, meaning the stock is trading at a discount of ~90% from that of it's Book Value. (0.09x of B.V to be precise)

June Qtr: ₹1 cr Loss
Sep Qtr: 105.6cr Profit
Dec Qtr: 52.59cr Profit

Total Profit till now: ₹161 cr which when divided by 280.5 cr shares bringing this FY's EPS to ₹0.57.

Do note, March Quarter's results to be declared. Even if the profit is ₹50cr this Qtr, that'd bring the EPS to ₹0.71 for this FY. Power Generational sector has a Sectoral P/E of 15 meaning ₹15 (F.V) is EASILY doable from such levels.

Now the *MAJOR Turnaround* news:
We recently saw this news on Govt of India considering selling of captive coal mining operations to the tune of 50% of their operational capacity. Why is this a breakthrough for RPower? I'll explain:

*R Power holds 3 captive coal mine blocks MOHER ( largest coal block in India ). MOHAR Amlohri and CHATRASAL with capacity of 20 million ton per year for the three . If they sell 10million ton it will be a big cash flow. (to the tune of ~ ₹3k cr approximately)* Just imagine how much profits would the company generate now.

Also, Bangladesh Project coming up in two Phases. Total 3000MW (3GW) thereby taking the total portfolio to a staggering *9GW.* Expected to come up sometime next year.

Also, VIPL resolution taking place. It'd (600MW capacity) most likely be sold to Adani's or found a way to make it operational.

Today only in the regulatory filing, RPower said it'd reduce debt by upto ₹3k cr this year. *Further deleveraging*. Guys just think of this. Debt reduction of 3k cr means *reduction in interest burden by ~300 cr per annum.* Count that as ₹300 cr profit per annum or ₹75 cr extra profit per annum.

*Direct jump of EPS by ₹1* 😊😊😊

A plethora of other good news in the pipeline:
1) R.Com resolution
2) RInfra becoming debt free
3) Promoters announcing increasing stake in the firms.

Just imagine the insanely deep undervaluation this stock possesses.

During IPO, zero portfolio. Today when it's available at even lesser than 1/100th of the valuation, nobody wants it (Inspite of it having a 6GW operating portfolio). The moment Current Assets And Current Liabilities wide mismatch of ₹10k cr fixes, the Stock would reflate in no time.

I missed to buy this GEM at ₹1. But no worries, I caught it at ₹4. Heck, even below ₹10 or even ₹15 it's deeply Undervalued, let alone ₹1. Two companies with ALMOST CERTAIN chances of survival: RInfra & *RPower.* 😊

Provided things go as planned, in the long run, RPower even possesses the potential reach

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a very beautiful answer to the foolish lady from the educated lady 🤣


NDTV: Why Tax Vaccines, Nirmala Sitharaman Explains After Mamata Banerjee Note.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/covid-19-after-mamata-banerjee-letter-nirmala-sitharaman-explains-tax-on-vaccines-2438283#publisher=newsstand

Selling

Fincare Business Services(Holding company Fincare small Finance Bank)

Total Quantities - 5 Lakhs.

Share Price - 103(1 Lakh lot size), 107(25k Lot Size)

ISIN - INE957R01017

ROFR Shares

It Will takes 2 to 2.5 months for the transaction.

For more Details please connect

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/fincare-sfb-to-file-ipo-papers-this-week/articleshow/82448056.cms

Plus advance introductory fees payable to us@2/sh