⚠️🌎 The risk indicator for a potential global conflict from Goldman Sachs has been rapidly increasing since 2021, reaching its highest level since the 1960s.

📬 Today's Calendar — July 21, 2026

New Zealand will release its consumer inflation CPI data for Q2 2026 at 01:45 Moscow time. The UK will report its unemployment figures for May at 09:00 Moscow time. The Eurozone and Germany will present the ZEW Economic Sentiment for July at 12:00 Moscow time. The US will announce ADP Employment data at 15:15 Moscow time. Russia's consumer inflation expectations will also be reviewed. Additionally, the US will report API oil inventories at 23:30 Moscow time.

The State Duma will consider a cryptocurrency bill in its second and third readings.

Earnings reports include Novartis at 08:00 Moscow time, and General Motors, Hasbro, 3M, Halliburton, Ally Financial, Northrop Grumman, Charles Schwab, and Interactive Brokers at various times throughout the day.

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🌎 The current exchange rates are as follows: USDCNY stands at 6.76, while USDTRUB is at 81.9.

⚠️🇮🇷 The United States has launched airstrikes against Iran for the tenth consecutive night, while Iran retaliates by targeting U.S. assets in the region. Mediators have presented a new proposal for a 10-day ceasefire to both the U.S. and Iran. The Trump administration is currently reviewing this offer. — AXIOS

🌎 Politico reports that the G20 summit in 2027 will be held in Manchester.

🚫 China is contemplating tightening export controls on AI models and AI chips, according to the Financial Times. The potential measures aim to regulate the export of advanced technologies more strictly, reflecting growing concerns over national security and technological competition. For further details, visit the original article here: FT.

🚨 New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q2 2026 shows a notable rise in inflation. The quarter-on-quarter increase is recorded at +1.5%, surpassing expectations of +1.4% and up from the previous +0.9%. Year-on-year, inflation stands at +4.1%, exceeding the anticipated +4% and significantly higher than the earlier figure of +3.1%. This marks a considerable acceleration in inflation rates in New Zealand for the second quarter.

💥🇷🇺 The IMOEX index is experiencing an unusual rise during the morning session. Some stocks have already hit their upper limits.

🚨🇺🇸 A federal court has paused the $110 billion merger between Paramount and Warner Bros. The lawsuit claims the merger would "destroy competition" in Hollywood. The current restraining order is in effect for 14 days, with a hearing set for August 3 on a motion for a preliminary injunction that could halt the deal for the duration of the legal proceedings.

💥✴️ Spot inflows into BTC ETF rose again yesterday, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of increases, according to SoSoValue. BTC is currently trading at the upper boundary of a very "tight" two-week consolidation.

💥 Former President Donald Trump has agreed to an ethics provision in the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act, removing the last major hurdle for a Senate vote. Many market participants believe that once the CLARITY Act is fully enacted, institutional demand for cryptocurrencies will surge, potentially driving the market bullishly in the long term. Bitwise recently reported that some of their large institutional clients are awaiting the approval of the CLARITY Act to enter the crypto space.

🇷🇺 Consumption of steel in Russia is slowing its decline, but analysts do not expect an increase in demand until at least the fourth quarter of 2027, according to a report by Kommersant.

🇷🇺 Russians are increasingly utilizing credit lines from Microfinance Organizations (MFOs). According to the Central Bank, by the first quarter of 2026, citizens owed 86 billion rubles in such products. This figure is nearly four times higher year-on-year, as reported by Izvestia.

💥🛢🇷🇺 Several Russian oil refineries have resumed fuel sales on the exchange. Wholesale trading volumes have begun to rise, unsatisfied demand is decreasing, and the situation at some gas stations is stabilizing. — Ъ

🚀 Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI has announced plans to conduct an IPO in Hong Kong. The company recently launched its open-source model Kimi K3, which boasts 2.8 trillion parameters, making it the largest AI model in the world, according to the developer. In the United States, concerns have arisen, with the emergence of the Kimi K3 model being described as a "DeepSeek 2.0" moment for America.

🛢 Experts forecast Brent crude oil prices to rise between $100 and $120 due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, according to a report by Izvestia.

🚨🇹🇷 The Turkish lira has hit a new all-time low against the US dollar.

🌎 The volume of hedge fund "leverage" on markets has reached a historical record, according to data from the Federal Reserve.

🌾 Global wheat prices have been rapidly increasing since early July. Russian wheat exports in July may reach their lowest levels since 2017 due to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Sea of Azov, a route for at least a quarter of export capacities. Russia remains one of the largest wheat exporters in the world.

🇷🇺 The Russian Ministry of Finance has postponed the placement of government bonds (ОФЗ) indefinitely. Rising rates in the debt market and aggressive demands from investors have led to this decision. Given the ambitious borrowing plans, a repeat of the trillion-ruble floaters issued two years ago cannot be ruled out. — Ъ