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Forwarded from Clash Report
BREAKING: Iran fired ballistic missiles on ALL Gulf countries except for Oman.
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Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that Iranian missile attacks targeted US military bases around the region, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
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🚨 Reminder

Trump in 2011:
"Our president will start a war with Iran because he has no ability to negotiate. He's weak and he's ineffective."
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran's strategy is likely to weather the attacks and maintain a steady stream of defensive missile strikes on US and proxy facilities around the region.

This forces the US to expend huge amounts of offensive weapons and interceptors that are already in short supply, depleting stockpiles and not only compromising the pace of operations against Iran, but undermining its capacity to wage war and proxy war everywhere else it is projecting power and seeking primacy.

Depleted interceptors will allow Iran to deal severe damage to US and proxy military infrastructure across the region, further complicating ongoing operations and raising their costs in the process.

Economic damage in the region, especially regarding oil will probably hurt China much more than the US, so the US doesn't even care about that - and maybe might even encourage it.

Iranian resilience and attrition of US munitions will be key in this conflict.
Iranian Red Crescent Society says 201 people killed, 747 wounded in Iran: Report
A spokesperson for Iran’s Red Crescent Society has told Mehr news agency that US and Israeli attacks have hit 24 of Iran’s provinces, killing  at least 201 people and wounding 747 people.
The spokesperson said that more than 220 Red Crescent teams are present at the targeted sites, and rescue operations continue.
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Trump's 'diplomacy' was seemingly a mere window dressing to buy time ….

Al Jazeera's Marwan Bishara on the joint attack by Israel and the US on Iran:

"The war was launched this weekend, not because there was a breakdown in the negotiations, rather because there was a breakthrough in the negotiations."
Reuters:

Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say.

Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.
The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached $73 a barrel on Friday for its highest since July, buoyed by growing concern over the potential attacks that arrived a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.
Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20% of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
"We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait," Parmar said.
Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel.
200,000 barrels of Russian oil destined for Cuba diverted, while a boat of guns from Florida pass by the US coastguard without issue. The US tries to starve the Cuban people to create unrest while allowing terrorists passage to the island to provoke it
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Fifteen US aircraft have left the Rota and Moron military bases in southern Spain since the U.S. and Israel launched weekend attacks on Iran, maps by flight tracking website FlightRadar24 showed on Monday.
Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said Spain would not allow its military bases, which are jointly operated by the U.S. and Spain but under Spanish sovereignty, to be used for attacks on Iran, which Spain has condemned.
🇩🇪 FOCUS:

Gas prices up 50% following the suspension of liquefied natural gas production in Qatar.
LNG giant halts production, shocking Europe.
The escalation in the Middle East is putting massive pressure on energy markets: State-owned producer Qatar Energy has temporarily halted its LNG production. The disruption of one of the world's most important liquefied natural gas suppliers could trigger the biggest disruptions on the global gas market since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Europe and Asia are particularly affected, as many countries are heavily reliant on LNG deliveries from Qatar.
The reaction on the stock markets was correspondingly sharp. On the European wholesale platform, prices for TTF natural gas contracts rose by almost 50 percent at times on Monday. The current price is around 47 euros per megawatt hour. 
According to the analysis firm ICIS, prices could rise to as high as 90 euros if the production outage and possible supply disruptions persist for a longer period of time.
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CNN:

🤡 Trump said, “the biggest surprise” has been Iran’s attacks against Arab countries in the region: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Of Iran’s attacks on them, he said “that was probably the biggest surprise.”


Trump didn't expect Iran would fight back
WaPo:

An Iranian drone strike on a hotel in Bahrain injured two U.S. Defense Department employees, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Washington Post.
“Two U.S. DOW personnel were injured,” the cable said, referring to the Department of Defense.
The cable, which was sent Sunday, did not provide further details. The State Department did not comment. The Defense Department did not immediately respond to requests for more information.
It was not immediately clear what hotel the U.S. personnel were at when they were injured. The Crowne Plaza hotel, a luxury property in Manama, Bahrain’s capital, was struck Sunday morning. It was also unclear whether the injured personnel were civilians or service members.
In a statement released Sunday, the U.S. Embassy in Bahrain advised U.S. citizens “that hotels might be a target for attacks, and encourages U.S. citizens to avoid hotels in Manama.”
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Israeli strikes on Lebanon kill 52 people, wound 154 others
Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed at least 52 people and wounded 154 others, the Lebanese government said in an updated toll.
An earlier casualty toll shared by the Health Ministry said 31 people were killed and 149 wounded.
The bombings of southern and eastern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs have also displaced more than 28,500 people, according to the government’s disaster and management unit.
He has a nerve to say that after unleashing unprovoked war against Iran! 🤡

Netanyahu:

"You see the difference. The tyrants of Tehran target civilians, we target the tyrants of Tehran to protect civilians."
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Forwarded from Clash Report
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Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:

We entered the negotiations to prove to the whole world that their intention was to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran; their intention was hostile.

And they could not claim that we requested negotiations and the Islamic Republic did not accept.

We also negotiated so that it would be clear that the truth was with us, so that ultimate proof would be established for the whole world.

Our own people would also understand that it wasn't the Islamic Republic that caused the war by refraining from negotiations.

Because there was a question: if we hadn't negotiated and a war had broken out, everyone might have thought to themselves that if we had negotiated, the war wouldn't have happened.
Forwarded from Clash Report
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Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:

In the past, we have repeatedly warned regional countries that if America enters a war with us, it cannot remain limited to just us and America; it will involve the whole region.

Not because we want to regionalize it, but because American bases and facilities are spread across our region.

From our point of view, those bases are legitimate targets—because they belong to the country attacking us, even if they claim they are not being used against Iran.

America is targeting parts of our country every day—hospitals and schools. More than 160 innocent schoolgirls were killed by American bombs and missiles.

And we’re told we shouldn’t strike their regional bases just because a specific base didn’t participate?

What kind of talk is this?
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Rubio said the objective of the Iran campaign is to wipe out Iran’s navy and ballistic missile capacity.

From “they can’t have nukes”
to
“they can’t have any means to defend their borders, period.”

And then Israel spent the day bombing all Iranian police stations so they also couldn't maintain order domestically either.
"Failed State" status is the goal - same as Syria and Libya and Yemen.
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🤡 Merz really said this:

"Israel a Victim of Unjust War like Ukraine"
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European gas prices surpassed the $700 mark on Tuesday, driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other.

According to the London Stock Exchange (ICE), the price of April futures contracts at the TTF center in the Netherlands rose to approximately $711 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, or €59.015 per megawatt-hour (based on the current euro-dollar exchange rate; ICE prices are expressed in euros per megawatt-hour), according to Sputnik.

European gas prices had already surged by 50% on Monday, reaching $585 per thousand cubic meters, following Qatar Energy's announcement of a suspension of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production due to an attack on its facilities.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump claims he's open to supporting armed groups inside Iran...

This has been going on for decades, the US prepared years ahead of time for this and has repeatedly used armed groups within and along Iranian borders to destabilize and undermine peace and stability for Iran.

It isn't a matter of if the US uses militants this time to launch a campaign inside Iran after shaping operations end, it is a matter of when and whether or not Iran's internal security is resilient enough to neutralize them.

Iran has applied its mosaic defense strategy to fighting both externally and inside its borders - the question is how well will this strategy hold up against ongoing strikes meant to degrade and overcome it.

Trump is telegraphing the next phase of operations and preparing the public for a version of reality in which US pre-planned terrorism/violence looks more "organic."
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