🇮🇷🇦🇫Iran's Afghan policy

🔴The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is managing relations with the Taliban under an “engagement without recognition” approach. While maintaining its official stance that power in Kabul should be inclusive, Tehran continues negotiations, balancing geopolitical interests with efforts to stabilize its eastern border regions.

🔴Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s January visit to Kabul sent a clear signal: despite withholding formal recognition, Tehran is open to case-by-case cooperation with the Taliban. Discussions centered on security, water rights, and the status of Afghan migrants. The trip marked the first high-level official visit since 2017, underscoring the pragmatism of Iranian diplomacy.

🔴Water distribution along the Helmand River remains one of the most sensitive issues in Iran-Afghanistan relations. With worsening water scarcity in Iran’s eastern provinces, adherence to the 1973 water treaty is strategically critical for Tehran. Any Afghan noncompliance is viewed as a national security threat, and the issue is routinely raised in bilateral talks.

🔴Afghan migration is another priority for Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. Over 3 million Afghans reside in Iran, many undocumented, according to the Iranian Interior Ministry. While Tehran frames its policy as humanitarian, it has intensified efforts to repatriate some migrants. Reports of deportations and border tensions frequently surface, though Iranian officials dismiss these claims as exaggerated or inaccurate.

🔴Tehran is closely monitoring power dynamics within the Taliban, particularly the balance among competing factions. With no common line, Iran prioritizes dialogue with pragmatic figures open to stable engagement. This strategy allows Tehran to retain flexibility and avoid overreliance in bilateral ties.

🔴The IRI sees economic cooperation with Afghanistan as a tool to expand regional influence. Key priorities include trade, energy exports, food supplies, and infrastructure projects, with special focus on transit routes like the Chabahar port to access Central Asian markets. However, the Taliban’s lack of international recognition, sanctions, and Afghanistan’s instability hinder progress.

🔴Protecting Afghanistan’s Shiite population is a top priority for Iran. Despite attacks on Shiite mosques by ISIS-Khorasan (IS-K), Tehran has refrained from directly blaming the Taliban, opting instead to express concern. This measured stance reflects its aim to keep communication channels open with Kabul while offering symbolic support to Shiite communities.

🔴Iran’s Afghan policy remains cautious yet focused. By prioritizing risk mitigation and influence preservation in a volatile environment, Tehran positions itself as an adaptable player in the region’s shifting landscape.

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