๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ง๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—บ ยฎโ„ข
28.1K subscribers
288 photos
3 files
17 links
In this Long term call monthly 1-3 call given holding period 1-3yrs
More premium Multibagger jackpot call msg me @Shortterm_bot

I am not SEBI registered analyst All the stocks are educational purpose,consulting your financial advisor before buying
Download Telegram
Key risks and concerns

๏ฎ Dependence on third-party vendors for manufacturing of own brands (73% revenue share) ๏ฎ Rising competition from other offline and online value retailers ๏ฎ Inflationary risks and inability to pass on price hikes ๏ฎ Sales concentration in select states ๏ฎ Follow-on stake sales from promoters (private equity-backed) and a lack of clarity on long-term ownership
๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿ’ฏ1
Multi-category, own-brand portfolio acts as a strong moat for VMM

๏ฎ VMM has successfully established a diverse and expanding portfolio of 26 own brands across key consumption baskets, with revenue contribution from these brands steadily rising to 73% by FY25. ๏ฎ In FY25, 19 of VMMโ€™s own brands surpassed INR1b in sales, with six brands exceeding INR5b, demonstrating strong brand acceptance. VMMโ€™s own brands typically offer the lowest opening price points, which makes them attractive for value-conscious consumers. ๏ฎ VMM operates a 100% private label portfolio across menโ€™s, womenโ€™s, and kidsโ€™ fashion, covering a wide range of categories such as denim, ethnic wear, innerwear, and sportswear. ๏ฎ The company has significantly expanded its own brand offerings in GM under the โ€˜Tandemโ€™ brand for home appliances, introducing products such as air fryers, garment steamers, sound bars, and kitchen tools. ๏ฎ VMMโ€™s private labels account for ~35% of its FMCG revenue and hold ~45% share in categories where they are present. Moreover, the volume share is significantly higher, given the 20-50% price discount vs. leading brands.
๐Ÿ‘2โค1๐Ÿ’ฏ1
Valuation and view

๏ฎ We expect VMM to post a revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 19%/20%, driven by: 1) ~13% CAGR in store additions, 2) consistent double-digit SSSG, and 3) modest operating leverage benefits. ๏ฎ Given VMMโ€™s debt-free balance sheet, robust cost controls, and tight working capital management (~15 days net-working capital), we expect ~24% PAT CAGR. ๏ฎ Over FY25-28, we expect VMM to generate a cumulative OCF/FCF of ~INR32b/ INR23b, which should enable accelerated store expansions. ๏ฎ We believe the companyโ€™s diversified category mix, ownership of opening price points, significant contribution from its own brands, and lean cost structure provide it with a strong moat against intense competition from both offline and online value retailers. ๏ฎ We initiate coverage on VMM with a BUY rating and a TP of INR165, premised on DCF-implied ~45x Sepโ€™27E pre-IND AS 116 EV/EBITDA (implying ~31x Sepโ€™27E reported EBITDA and ~69x Sepโ€™27E P/E). Our DCF-implied multiples are at ~4-7% premium to VMMโ€™s average trading multiples since the listing. ๏ฎ Based on our reverse DCF analysis (10.5% risk-free rate, 6.5% terminal growth rate), our TP of INR165/share implies ~11%/13% revenue/pre-INDAS 116 EBITDA CAGR over FY25-50E, driven by ~115 store additions annually and ~4% CAGR improvement in store productivity. ๏ฎ Despite strong performance since the listing (up 75% from IPO price), we believe the risk reward remains attractive (bull: INR210/share; bear: INR120/share)
๐Ÿ”ฅ5๐Ÿ‘2โค1๐Ÿ’ฏ1
Vishal Mega Mart 90-110
Expected level 135
Support 88
โค8โšก6๐Ÿ‘2๐Ÿ’ฏ2
The Ramco Cements Limited Company Details Report

The Ramco Cements Limited is a flagship company of the Ramco Group and is headquartered in Chennai. It is an Indian cement manufacturer with an installed annual production capacity of 24.3 MTPA (million tonne per annum) and 15.9 MTPA of clinker capacity as on 31st March 2025 and ready-mix concrete has installed capacity of 56 m3 per hour. The satellite grinding units are promoted very near to the market so that the distributors can meet demand of the consumers locally. It catered to more than 9,400 dealers and more than 23,500 sub dealers as on 31st March 2024. Its regional distribution of cement capacity as on 31st March 2025 was as follows- 50% Tamil Nadu, 33% Andhra Pradesh, 9% West Bengal, 8% Odisha and 1% Karnataka It manufactures and markets OPC (Ordinary Portland Cement) grade to multiple types of blended cement, ready mix concrete and dry mix products. The company has integrated cement plants and grinding units situated in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka and Odisha. The integrated cement and grinding units' capacity state wise as on 31st March 2024 was Tamil Nadu 51%, Andhra Pradesh 31%, West Bengal 9%, Odisha 8% and Karnataka 1%. Major cement brands of the company are Ramco Supercrete, Ramco Supergrade, Ramco Sulphate Resisting Cement and Ramco SuperFast. Its captive power capacity stood at 166 MW of wind power, 175 MW of thermal power plants capacity and 43MW waste heat recovery system (WHRS) 43 MW as on 31st March 2024. Green power capacity increased to 211 MW as on 31st March 2025.
๐Ÿ”ฅ2
#SALES #GROWTH

The company generated a revenue of โ‚น8,518 cr in FY25, it decreased by 9% YoY. The sales volume during the period stood at 18.5 MT (including 0.33 MT from construction chemicals), it was higher by ~1% on a YoY basis. In the same period, blended realization declined by 10% YoY to โ‚น4,604 per tonne. Share of Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and B2B sales in FY25 was as followsโ€“ 31% and 34%, respectively. In FY25, the cement capacity was increased by 1.3 MTPA toto 24 MTPA. In FY24, the sales volume of cement increased by 21% YoY and stood at 18.1 MT. The revenue registered was โ‚น9,376 cr up by 15% YoY. The cement capacity utilization for the FY24 is at 83%. In Kolimigundla railway siding will be commissioned in September 2024. The new units for dry mix products in Andhra Pradesh is ready for commercial production and another unit in Orissa is expected to be commissioned in September 2024.
โค1๐Ÿ‘1
#EBITDA #GROWTH

In FY25, EBITDA per ton was โ‚น690, lower by 20% on a YoY basis. The company generated an EBITDA of โ‚น1,595 cr in the same period, it de-grew by 20% YoY. The cost of producing a tonne of cement reduced by 7% YoY to โ‚น3,915. Lower EBITDA can be attributed to lower realisation in South and East markets. In FY24, the EBITDA stood at โ‚น1,595 cr and EBITDA per ton stood at โ‚น867 compared to โ‚น796 in FY23. The power & fuel cost per ton of cement for FY24 has decreased to โ‚น1,389 compared to โ‚น1,771 in FY23. The change in utility of sale of wind power to captive use has also helped to reduce the overall power cost. The overall green power usage has significantly improved from 22% in FY23 to 34% in FY24 in view of change in utility of wind power to captive purposes. Cost of raw materials increased by 5% YoY from โ‚น903 to โ‚น948 per ton for the current year due to inflationary impact on procurement cost.
๐Ÿ”ฅ1
#PAT #GROWTH

In FY25, they generated a PAT of โ‚น268 cr. On a YoY basis PAT declined by 32%. During the period, finance cost and depreciation increased by 10% and 8% YoY, respectively. Increase in finance cost and depreciation was on account of commissioning of new capacity. During the quarter and year ended 31st March 2025, PAT included profit on sale of investments and surplus land of โ‚น199.4 cr (after consolidation adjustments) and profit on sale of investment and surplus land amounting, which was accounted as exceptional item. In FY24, the PAT stood at โ‚น394 cr. There was an increase in finance cost & depreciation on account of commissioning of units in JPM Line III, Kolimigundla, R RNagarLine III and Dry Mortar Plants.
๐Ÿ‘1
#EBITDA #MARGIN

In FY25, EBITDA margin contracted by 222 bps YoY to 14.5%, this was on the back of reduced realisation along with a 109 bps YoY reduction in gross margin, which stood at 32.5%. Furthermore, employee cost as a percentage of net revenue from operations increased by 59 bps YoY to 6.5%; logistics cost increased by 209 bps YoY to 24.3% and other expenses increased by 53 bps YoY to 11.6%. However, power and fuel cost decreased by 209 bps YoY to 24.3%. Average lead distance during the year was 260 km v/s 280 km in FY24 and rail share of cement dispatches was ~9%, an increase of 100 bps YoY. In FY24, the EBITDA margin 16.7% v/s 14.5% in FY23. Decreasing fuel and power cost led to an positive impact on the EBITDA margins, Higher demand during the year led to higher plant capacity utilization which led to higher operating leverage.
๐Ÿ‘1
#PAT #MARGIN

For the year ended 31st March 2025, PAT margin was 3.1%, it contracted by 105 bps YoY. Effective tax rate during the period was lower to 16% due to deferred tax expense, however there was zero current tax liability. In FY24, the PAT margin remained flat on a YoY basis at ~4.2%. Effective tax rate during the year was ~27% as against 28% in FY23.
๐Ÿ”ฅ1
#ROCE

In FY25, return on capital employed is envisaged to reduce due to reduced profitability lead by a weak demand environment. In FY24, the EBIT stood at โ‚น958 cr and capital employed was at โ‚น12,298 cr. EBIT increased by ~34% and during the same period increase in capital employed was ~7% due to which the ratio improved by ~164 bps on aYoYbasis to 8.2%.
๐Ÿ‘1
#ROE

As on 31st March 2025, net worth increased by 3% YoY to โ‚น7,442 cr and net profit decreased by 32% YoY to โ‚น268 cr. For the year under review, ROE is anticipated to be ~3.7% due to reduced profitability and asset turnover ratio. In FY24, the net worth was at โ‚น7,238 cr and the net profit stood at โ‚น394 cr. The ratio registered a slight increase from 5.07% in FY23 to ~5.6% in FY24. Increase in ROE was due to higher financial leverage and marginally better asset utilization.
๐Ÿ”ฅ1
#COMPANY #POTENTIAL

โ€ข India is the second largest producer and consumer of cement, with a capacity of ~670 MTPA. The industry is an essential contributor to the Indian economy, providing employment to millions of people and driving infrastructure development. As per Crisilโ€™s estimate, Indian cement companies expanded its capacity by 33-35 MT in FY25. (Source : CRISIL Research) โ€ข Indiaโ€™s per capita cement consumption is 250 kg, far below Chinaโ€™s 1,600 kg, offering substantial growth potential. Cement demand inIndia is expected to grow 1.2x to 1.5x of GDP. In FY26, Indiaโ€™s GDP is envisaged to grow at ~6.5%. โ€ข InSouthern region, during the first two months of FY26, the average cement prices improved by โ‚น30-โ‚น35 per bag in trade and โ‚น60โ‚น70 per bag in non-trade. In the eastern region, trade price remain flat whereas non-trade price improved by around โ‚น10 per bag from the exit prices of March 2025. The management believes the prices would sustain amid rising pace of cement capacity additions/consolidation in Southern region. โ€ข In the FY26 Budget, allocation for capex is at โ‚น11.2 lakh cr besides โ‚น1.5 lakh crore as 50-year interest-free loans to states for infrastructure development. Personal income tax reductions is also expected to boost consumption. Industrial activity is expected to rebound on the back of higher government spending. Normal monsoon predictions could boost farm incomes, driving demand for rural housing. Urban housing is expected to regain momentum, owing to a low base, interest rate cuts and improved pace of execution under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojanaโ€“ Urban. The government has allocated ~โ‚น78,000 crore towards PM Awas Yojana in FY26. โ€ข In February 2025, Government of Tamil Nadu (TN) increased royalty on limestone to โ‚น160 per tonne. Ramco Cement produced ~50% of its clinker (key raw material limestone) in TN, resulting in additional cost implication of ~โ‚น200 per tonne of cement produced in TN.

โ€ข TheBharatmala projectโ€“ The government has set a target to lay down 60,000 kms of road with a total outlay of โ‚น6.9 lakh crore out of which 34,800 km are targeted in Phase 1. Till March 2024, road projects spanning 17,411 km have been built under Phase 1. As of FY24, out of a total length of 34,800 km (Bharatmala Phase I), 27,391 km have been awarded (including approved but not awarded), 17,411 km have been constructed and total capital outlay has been โ‚น8.75 lakh crore. โ€ข Government of Indiaโ€™s National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), decade of infrastructure, ~$4 trillion investment expected. Highways (~15,000 km/year), ports, bullet trains, rail/metro, renewables will push the demand.
๐Ÿ‘3
#COMPANY #OUTLOOK

โ€ข In Kolimigundla, construction of railway siding is complete, and commissioning is under progress. The siding is expected to be available for usage during Q1 FY26. โ€ข Thecapacity expansion of construction chemicalโ€™s unit in Odisha is expected to be commissioned before June 2025. โ€ข Thecompanypropose to double the clinker capacity in Kolimigundla to 6.3 MTPA and double the cement capacity to 3 MTPA with 15 MWofWHRSatanestimated project cost of โ‚น1,250 cr. This expansion is scheduled to be commissioned in FY26. The aggregate installed capacity of company would reach 19 MTPA for clinker and 30 MTPA for cement by FY26. Along with the ongoing capex they will also look for opportunities to de-bottleneck existing facilities and adding grinding capacities in existing locations with nominal capex. โ€ข It have proposed to install waste heat recovery system (WHRS) plant with a capacity of 10 MW in Ramasamy Raja Nagar at an estimated cost of โ‚น153 cr and is scheduled for commissioning by July 2025. In Kolimigundla, WHRS capacity of 15 MW will be commissioned along with Kiln Line-2, thaking the total WHRS capacity to 68 MW by FY26. The total green power capacity as on 31st March 2025 was 211 MWandwillbe236 MWbytheendFY26. โ€ข Thecompanyhasso faracquired 54% of mininglandand 13% of factory lands for green field project in Karnataka. โ€ข During FY25, the company has monetized โ‚น460 cr out of targeted value of โ‚น1,000 cr towards disposal of non-core assets. The company will use the said proceeds to reduce its debt and to meet its capex requirements. The company is on track to achieve the target before July 2025 as committed earlier.
โšก4๐Ÿ‘1
The Ramco Cements Limited 880-925
Expected level 1100
Support 800
๐Ÿ”ฅ5๐Ÿ’ฏ3๐Ÿ‘2