๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ง๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—บ ยฎโ„ข
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In this Long term call monthly 1-3 call given holding period 1-3yrs
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In the industrial business, oil & gas is one of the major revenue contributors. In the power space, it manufactures critical components for application in conventional & renewable energy and even builds capabilities in renewable energy, which is further strengthened by acquisition of JS Auto Cast which is a leading player in the space. In the resources (oil & gas, construction & mining) space, it is manufacturing critical, high-end construction and mining components and highly durable products for use in extreme applications. It is exploring potential for sub-systems, leveraging wide construction equipment component manufacturing competence of JS Auto Cast. In the defence & aerospace segment, it is a long-standing supplier of critical components to Indian defense establishments and global aerospace players. It is manufacturing artillery systems and armored vehicles for Indian defense forces; rotating and landing gear components for global aerospace players. In rail & marine, it is a leading railway engine components manufacturer for domestic and global markets and even has capability of supplying developed turbochargers for rail applications. In the general engineering space, it is manufacturing durable products for a range of heavy engineering applications. In the Automotive segment, it is Indiaโ€™s largest auto component exporter and is amongst worldโ€™s leading powertrain and chassis components manufacturer having front-line design and engineering, dual shore manufacturing and full-service supply capabilities. It supplies its products to leading global automotive OEMs and tier I suppliers. The companyโ€™s international business consists of the steel and aluminium forging of its subsidiaries in US and Europe. The Steel Forging business caters primarily to commercial vehicles, while the aluminum business supplies forgings for premium passenger cars and electric vehicles. The aluminum operations are engaged in the manufacture of chassis components for passenger cars, insulating the Company from any powertrain specific preferences of consumers.
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Revenue Geography wise
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#SALES #GROWTH

In FY25, net sales declined by 4% YoY to โ‚น15,123 cr - with Indian operations contributing at โ‚น10,326 cr, and overseas operations at โ‚น4,787 cr (Bharat Forge CDP GmbH, a step-down subsidiary in Germany, engaged in manufacturing of forged and machined components for CVs, PVs, and industrial applications had revenue of โ‚น1,689 cr. BF International, subsidiary located in England, involved in trading of forged & machined components for the automotive & industrial sectors. recorded revenue of โ‚น3,198 cr). New business wins across all key segments was ~โ‚น6,959 cr, including ~โ‚น5,000 cr in the defence segment, โ‚น1,685 cr under standalone operations, and ~โ‚น245 cr through JS Auto. The defence order book stands at ~โ‚น9,500 cr, highlighting strong opportunity pipelines both domestically and internationally. The aerospace business is growing at 15%-20% annually, driven by global OEM orders and new facility investments. The acquisition of AAM India enhances presence in the domestic passenger and light commercial vehicle market.
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#EBITDA #GROWTH

EBITDA GROWTH In FY25, the EBITDA stood at โ‚น2,694 cr and grew by 5% YoY. Profitability in the Indian operations remained stable, while overseas operations saw a slight decline. Raw material costs were largely favourable, though other expenses and employee costs rose on a YoY basis. It engages in the purchase of raw materials (steel) and the sale of scrap with Kalyani Steels Limited, with the estimated annual value of these transactions amounting to โ‚น1,500 cr. Additionally, transactions with Saarloha Advanced Materials Private Limited include the purchase of specialty steel, sale of scrap, and charges related to job work, machining, and subcontracting, with an estimated value of โ‚น3,000 cr for the year. 5 Year CAGR: 19.2%
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#PAT #GROWTH

PAT GROWTH In FY25, the net profit increased moderately by 1% to โ‚น917 cr. KPTL, a wholly owned subsidiary, holds a 64.29% stake in Tork Motors. Due to challenges in the two-wheeler EV market impacting Torkโ€™s operations, an impairment provision of โ‚น152 cr was recorded. Tax rate was 37%.
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#EBITDA #MARGIN

EBITDA MARGIN In FY25, the EBITDA margin increased by ~150 bps YoY to 17.8%. EBITDA margin from Indian operations was 26.9% (v/s 25.5% in FY24), while from overseas operations it was 1% (v/s 0.9% in FY24), taking the consolidated margins to ~17% levels.
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#PAT #MARGIN

In FY25, the PAT margin stood at 6.1% v/s 5.8% in FY24.

In FY24, the PAT margin stood at 5.8%. In 9M FY25, the PAT margin (excluding exceptional item) was 7% v/s 5.9% in 9M FY24.
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#ROCE

ROCE In FY25, the ROCE stood at 12.4%. Volume growth is being driven through improved utilization of existing capacity in India, with selective capacity expansion aligned to sector-specific growth prospects. As of early 2025, aluminium operations achieved 60%-65% utilization in Europe and ~60% in the United States, where performance continues to improve across key parameters. These initiatives are expected to lead to de-risked growth, improved asset utilization, and stronger return ratios.
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#ROE

In FY25, the ROE stood at 11.1%. Net worth rose pertaining to the QIP. Net worth of the company increased on account of rise in retained earnings. Higher capex & working capital requirements with tepid growth has led to dent on return ratio, which is envisaged to improve going forward. In Q3 FY25, it issued 1.25 cr equity shares through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) at โ‚น1,320/share (including a securities premium of โ‚น1,318/share), raising โ‚น1,650 cr. Out of the total proceeds, ~โ‚น1,100 cr was utilised during the period towards repayment of certain borrowings, general corporate purposes, and expenses related to the QIP issue. The unutilised amount of โ‚น550 cr has been parked in fixed deposits with banks.
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#Company #POTENTIAL

โ€ข The global automotive industry saw modest expansion in CY25. According to S&P Global Mobility estimates, global light vehicle sales reached 8.82 crore units, marking a 1.7% increase over CY24, supported by continued inventory restocking as supply chains stabilized. The European automotive market recorded the slowest growth among major regions, increasing by just 0.9%, with the EU specifically growing by 0.8%. Western Europe is expected to maintain this subdued momentum in CY25, with a projected growth of 1%. โ€ข The United States auto market registered a 2.2% increase in light vehicle sales in CY24, reaching 1.59 crore units. However, growth in CY25 is projected to moderate to 1.5%, amid policy uncertainties under the new administration. Although interest rates are expected to ease slightly, high vehicle prices and evolving trade policies-particularly concerning tariffs-may weigh on overall sales. In China, light-duty vehicle production stood at 3.13 crore units and sales at 3.14 crore units in CY24, reflecting YoY growth of 3.7% and 4.5%, respectively. The market continues to be supported by government incentives, competitive pricing of locally manufactured electric vehicles, and strong momentum in new energy vehicle (NEV) adoption. โ€ข The global automotive forging market is estimated to be valued at $48.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $74.29 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.9%. For CY24 specifically, the market is expected to be valued at ~$50.67 billion. The market is witnessing steady growth driven by rising demand for forged components such as engine parts, transmission gears, and chassis elements
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#COMPANY #OUTLOOK

โ€ข The U.S. commercial vehicle market in 2024 remained largely stable, with total new registrations for GVW 1-8 vehicles holding steady at 2.8 million-unchanged from 2023. However, this figure was still 2,00,000 units below pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. Notable market shifts included a decline in diesel and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, alongside a marked increase in hybrid and electric vehicle adoption. (Source: S&P Global) โ€ข In 2024, the U.S. commercial vehicle, Class 8 registrations declined by 11%, totalling 2,31,000 units, while Class 4 and 5 registrations rose by 7% and 9%, respectively. Government fleet registrations showed strong momentum, up 20% YoY. Cargo van registrations declined by 2% from 2023. Similarly, tractor truck registrations fell 18% YoY. The shift away from internal combustion engine (ICE) and diesel vehicles continued, with ICE commercial vehicle registrations down 7% since 2019-mainly driven by declines in pickups and cargo vansโ€”impacting the lease rental segment. Diesel vehicle registrations also dropped 2%, affecting both tractor and straight trucks. (Source: S&P Global) โ€ข In FY25, Indiaโ€™s defence exports reached a record โ‚น23,622 cr. The Ministry of Defence signed 193 contracts worth over โ‚น2,09,050 crore, with 177 contracts (92%) awarded to domestic industry. More than 14,000 items have been indigenised under the SRIJAN initiative, along with 3,000 items under the Positive Indigenisation Lists. India is targeting โ‚น3 lakh cr in defence production and โ‚น50,000 cr in exports by 2029. India now exports defence equipment to over 100 countries, with the USA, France, and Armenia emerging as the top buyers. (Source: PIB) โ€ข Currently, 65% of defence equipment is manufactured domestically-a significant turnaround from the earlier 65%โ€“70% import dependency-reflecting Indiaโ€™s growing self-reliance in the defence sector.
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Bharat forge 1000-1120
Expected level 1400
Support 850
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Transformer Sector Stocks

New Theme Emerging After the Bull Run in Railways & Defence Stocks!

With the strong rally in railway and defence sectors largely fueled by government initiatives, smart money is now eyeing Power Transmission as the next big opportunity.

Hereโ€™s why:

Example: Solar power is being generated in Rajasthan, and wind energy is thriving in Gujarat. But how does this clean energy reach far-off states and industries? The answer lies in Power Transmission โ€” the backbone of Indiaโ€™s energy infrastructure.

Recognizing its importance, the Government of India is set to invest โ‚น9 lakh crore in this sector between 2022 and 2032:

โ‚น4.25 lakh crore to be spent till 2027

โ‚น4.75 lakh crore planned for 2027โ€“2032

The investment will be distributed across:

Transmission Lines (35%) โ€” towers, cables, etc.

Substations (35%) โ€” transformers and equipment

HVDC Lines (20%) โ€” for long distance, high-efficiency transmission

This massive push is already translating into a surge in order books and revenues for companies operating in this space. The theme is gaining traction, and smart investors are taking note.

Key listed players in this space include:

โœ…Siemens

โœ…Hitachi Energy

โœ…GE Vernova

โœ…Transrail Lighting

โœ…TRIL (Transformers and Rectifiers India Ltd) etc.

โœ… Sterlite electric - unlisted

Keep an eye on this space โ€” Power Transmission could be the next major theme driving market returns!
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Good morning
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