Important dynamics to know ahead of $SPCX trading open:

- 4.20% float with 70bps greenshoe — total supply d1 4.9% (most likely)
- $1 move is $13b — $13.19b after greenshoe
- 20% sold to retail investors, 10% to foreign investors
- Elon owns 40.5% and is locked 1y
- 20% cliff unlocked in mid August (if stock trades 30% above IPO then 30% or $379b of value)
- $5b Blackrock order, can assume at least 2 other large orders from gulf states hence 20% of the circulating supply is locked roughly — bringing greenshoe adjusted circulating float to ~4.06%
- No short selling allowed from all the insiders/SPV participants, no hedging flow
- Fast entry in Nasdaq-100 is in 15 days (guaranteed $7b buying pressure, up to $23b across all trackers)
- No S&P 500 fast track
- SPCX options will be live Tuesday 16th
- No margin trading allowed first days on brokerages
- Limit only orders pre open
- No overnight market on the first day
- Trading halt bounds are 20% of the first 15min and last 25min of the trading day, otherwise 10%

Have not participated into the IPO, will simply to look for weakness in $SPCX either later in the day or next week and go for shorts on $RDW and $ASTS. We don't anticipate to see weakness in the first 2 weeks.
Overall should be constructive for $NQ as new margin is added to brokerages.

Fed Press Conference Takeaways:

Tldr: THE GOOD NEWS FOR YOU IS WE HAVE A TASK FORCE FOR THAT

1. Short statements.
2. No forward guidance.
3. Warsh said financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data not on "how will the Fed react to that incoming data"
4. FOMC ‘unambiguously and unanimously’ going to deliver 2% inflation. We'll fix five years of misses on inflation, warsh said
5. Warsh announced task forces that will look into several areas and make recommendations for improvements by yod: communications, the balance sheet, use of data sources, productivity and jobs, and the Fed’s inflation framework
6. On Balance Sheet: will review the benefits and risks of the current ample reserves regime and the composition of the balance sheet.
7. On Data Sources: will evaluate new info sources & consider methodological changes to improve data-gathering.

*WARSH EXPERIENCES WORST ‘FED DAY’ S&P 500 PERFORMANCE FOR A NEW CHAIR SINCE 1994

*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN TWO FED RATE HIKES BY THE END OF 1Q 2027

https://x.com/i/status/2068339640461897926 haih is this our reality?