Key events coming next week:

- Tuesday, Dec 16 - Rate of unemployment & Nonfarm Payrolls in US

- Thursday, Dec 18 - CPI results & Initial Jobless Claims

- Friday, Dec 19 - Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision (Lately it has some impacts on the global market due to yen hedge trades)

Crypto Market Update – 16 Dec 2025

TLDR
US labour data is the key catalyst this week. Weak payrolls may revive rate-cut expectations, but cuts driven by economic weakness are usually negative for BTC and risk assets.
Inflation is secondary this week. Expected near 3.0 percent YoY and unlikely to move markets unless there is a surprise.
A Bank of Japan rate hike to 0.75 percent is expected and largely priced in; only hawkish guidance increases downside risk.
Broader risk-off signals, including equity softness and gold strength, point to a possible BTC retest of the low 80Ks.
The long-term bullish view remains intact. The 74K–82K zone is seen as an attractive accumulation area ahead of a potential 2026 rally.

Data This Week
On Tuesday, markets receive delayed US labour data for October and November combined. Estimates imply very weak job growth, with unemployment expected around 4.6 percent. Powell has stated payrolls may be overstated by around 60K, meaning headline gains could actually mask job losses.
If labour data is weaker than expected, January or March rate cuts could come back on the table. However, rate cuts caused by labour-market stress are historically bearish in the short term for risk assets.
On Thursday, inflation data is released. Core and headline inflation are expected near 3.0 percent YoY. Only a material surprise would meaningfully move markets.

Bank of Japan – Friday
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. The hike itself is priced in, with the key risk being hawkish forward guidance that signals further tightening.
Historically, BTC has pulled back following BoJ rate hikes due to yen carry-trade unwinds:
On March 19, 2024, BTC fell about 9 percent the following day but recovered within a week.
On July 31, 2024, a surprise hike led to a roughly 25 percent drop over six days, with recovery taking around ten weeks.
On January 24, 2025, BTC declined about 5 percent initially and was roughly 27 percent lower five weeks later.
Markets are better positioned now, so a major shock is less likely, but hawkish BoJ guidance could still pressure BTC in the short term.

Market Backdrop
Equities are showing signs of fatigue and volatility remains elevated.
Gold strength suggests defensive positioning.
BTC flows remain unsupportive, increasing downside risk into this week’s macro events.

What This Means for Crypto
Strong labour data would likely confirm no near-term Fed cuts, pressuring risk assets.
Weak labour data could bring cuts back into view, but cuts driven by economic weakness tend to be bearish in the short term.
Either outcome keeps volatility elevated this week.

Strategic View
Short term, a risk-off bias and macro-driven volatility dominate.
Medium term, a bottoming process into December and January is likely.
Long term, the outlook for 2026 remains constructive, supported by expected fiscal easing and monetary accommodation.
A high-conviction accumulation zone is seen between 74K and 82K if reached with clear capitulation signals.

Final Take
This is a macro-heavy, high-risk week for crypto. US labour data is the primary driver, with Bank of Japan policy a secondary risk.
A move into the low 80Ks would be painful in the short term but attractive from a long-term perspective. Patience now may set up strong positioning for upside into 2026.

UK inflation cools to 3.2 in November
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/17/uk-inflation-cools-to-3point2-in-november.html

🇺🇸US CPI and Initial Jobless Claims data just released.

➡️CPI (YoY)
Previous : 3.0% | Forecast : 3.1% | 🟢Actual : 2.7%

➡️Initial Jobless Claims
Previous : 236K | Forecast : 224K |🟢Actual : 224K

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