Capital Market Authority said it would continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis.
β’ Short-term. Brent could surge to $80-100+ on open, if no de-escalation.
β’ 2026 average. Brent projected to average $63.85 per barrel.
β’ Short-term. Risk-off expected on Monday open; equities could drop 1-2% initially (or more if escalation), shift to safe havens (treasuries, gold). Volatility high due to oil spike fears.
β’ 2026 average. S&P 500 projected to end 7,500-7,700, driven by earnings growth and AI/economic resilience.
β’ Short-term. Further downside risk to $60k if broader equities tank; potential quick recovery if contained.
β’ 2026 outlook. No major 2026-specific forecasts updated post-conflict, so check out the recent post.
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William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that prolonged conflict affecting supply could cause oil prices to jump to around $100, potentially adding 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation.
The conflict could also add to demand for US Treasuries whose yields have been falling in the past few weeks.
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β’ βThey would soon have missiles capable of reaching America.β
β’ βThe Iranian regime had missiles capable of striking Europe.β
β’ βIran refused to stop developing nuclear weapons.β
β’ βWe projected 4β5 weeks, but it may take longer.β
β’ βWe are ahead of schedule.β
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