Good Morning !!

Good Morning!

You might be wondering why there have been fewer updates lately. It’s important to understand that not trading is also a form of trading. By staying out, you avoid unnecessary positions driven by impulse, especially that dopamine-driven urge which often leads to poor decisions. Learning to control this is a key edge.

We are likely approaching the later phase of this correction. This is one of the most challenging periods to navigate, and I understand that we’re all going through it together. In such weak market conditions, even the best setups tend to fail more frequently. It’s wiser to wait for the market to turn favorable rather than force trades.

Currently, I’m observing early signs of divergence, several quality stocks are holding steady while the small-cap index continues to weaken. This is typically when relative strength begins to emerge, often indicating early signs of a potential bottoming process.

For us, March remains a crucial month. I expect some clarity to emerge within this week as the volatility settles. Until then, the focus should strictly be on building a strong watchlist of quality names rather than active trading.

Stay patient. Stay prepared. 🤞🏻📊

#CHENNAIPETRO is 20% up 🚀✅

Selective Buying #CHENNAIPETRO

Good days are coming ✅🚀
Today portfolio is up more than index 📊✅

#CNXSMALLCAP

This is the phase where portfolios are built and not avoided.

We are approaching the final leg of the correction, with 14000–14500 acting as a probable exhaustion zone. One last flush is likely, and that’s where the real opportunity lies.

The chart reflects a long-term rising trendline support, and price is gradually moving towards it. A move into this zone would allow:

Valuation excess to normalize

Weak hands to exit

Strong accumulation to begin

Key Perspective:
This is not panic territory — this is a structured, systematic correction within a broader uptrend.

Markets are doing what they are supposed to do: reset, rebalance, and prepare for the next leg.

What should you do?

Focus on high-quality names in strong sectors

Start staggered accumulation, not aggressive buying

Avoid reacting to news-driven volatility

Stay aligned with structure, not sentiment

The narrative will shift — it always does. Right now, it’s fear. Soon, it will be opportunity.

Big money is made in phases like this — not in euphoric breakouts.

No need to panic..! This was bound to happen. 🤞🏻✅

This chart is important for us to act 🤞🏻✅

#CNXSMALLCAP
Understanding the direction is important, I am not at all excited by the oversold bounce of the market. This is structure on daily chart.

Levels to consider deployment 14400-14600.

#NIFTY
Nifty - 22000-22200 leg downside. Now not much room left for downside.

Once we reach these levels - we can then expected this correction to end and market reversal. We will get clear picture by this month end.

Good Morning!!

Have patience - We are almost there. 14400-14600 - CNXSMALLCAP

Market Perspective — Understand the Phase 📊

We all know the kind of pain the market is putting everyone through right now and the reality is, everyone is in the same boat. 😅🤞🏻

But if you step back and observe objectively, the market is currently undergoing a major value correction.

It is very important not to get carried away by external noise - whether it’s negative news flow, geopolitical tensions, or war headlines. These factors may increase the intensity of the correction, but they are not the reason behind it.

This correction was long overdue. 📉

Now, if we rely on data and historical market behavior, there are strong indications that we are approaching the bottom phase:

✅ Nearly 80% of stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average — this is a classic sign of capitulation / panic zones

✅ The 40-day advance-decline ratio is at one of the worst readings — historically a contrarian signal for bottom formation

✅ FII positioning shows 85–90% net short exposure — which can lead to:
→ Panic bottom
→ Followed by sharp short covering rally

✅ If you study breadth and diffusion indicators, almost every indicator is at extreme bearish levels
→ When everything turns bearish together, it usually signals exhaustion, not continuation

✅ If we compare Gold vs Nifty / Gold vs Smallcap, equities have already seen a massive value correction in real terms
→ This makes equities one of the most attractive asset classes currently

✅ Also, from a time-cycle perspective, markets typically correct for 500–600 days, and we are already within that window

Putting all of this together, the data strongly suggests that we are very close to a market bottom — possibly within 1–3 weeks.

However, one final phase is often required — the flush out of weak hands.

For that, markets typically break key psychological and technical levels, triggering panic and forced selling. Based on current structure:

🎯 Small Cap Index: Critical zone at 14,400 – 14,600
🎯 Nifty: Critical zone at 21,800 – 22,000

A breakdown below these levels can:

✅ Trigger final capitulation
✅ Create ideal risk-reward for FIIs to cover shorts
✅ Mark the formation of a durable bottom

So understand the game.

Don’t get trapped in headlines, war panic, or noise-driven sentiment. Markets move on structure, positioning, and liquidity — not emotions.

This is not the phase to panic. This is the phase to prepare, observe, and gradually position for the next cycle.

Thank you.

Tomorrow we might see a good day. But again major trend is not changed yet.

Understand one simple thing — markets don’t bottom out quietly. They bottom out in panic.

Right now, what we’re seeing is just noise. Every day there’s some news — one day positive, one day negative — and the market is just reacting to that with gap ups and gap downs. This kind of behaviour is very normal in uncertain or war-like situations. High volatility, no clear direction.

But this is not how a real bottom is formed.

A proper bottom comes when there is fear everywhere — when people start giving up, when there’s forced selling, when it feels like the market will keep falling. We haven’t seen that kind of panic yet.

So what should we do?

Honestly, not much.

If you have good trades, it makes sense to book profits instead of getting caught in this volatility. And when it comes to deploying fresh money — better to wait. No need to rush in the middle of this noise.

Let the market settle, let the panic come, and then we act.

For now, the levels to watch remain the same:
Smallcap Index around 14,600–14,800
Nifty around 21,800–22,000

Till then, patience is the edge.