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Geopolitical Update

🇷🇺 U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh for their first direct talks on ending the Ukraine war, with Kyiv and European allies excluded.

Moscow demanded NATO formally revoke its 2008 pledge of future membership for Ukraine. The meeting follows President Donald Trump's recent phone call with Vladimir Putin, raising concerns that the U.S. may make concessions unfavorable to Ukraine. U.S. officials argue they are acknowledging geopolitical realities, while Kyiv insists no deal can be made without its participation. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated NATO’s non-admission stance is insufficient. The discussions may pave the way for a Trump-Putin meeting, signaling potential shifts in U.S.-Russia diplomacy.

🇮🇱 Israel will begin indirect negotiations with Hamas this week on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced.

The talks, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., were initially set for February 2 but faced delays. Israel demands Gaza’s complete demilitarization and rejects any continued Hamas presence. Despite past uncertainties, Saar confirmed Israel’s commitment if discussions remain constructive. The first phase of the ceasefire, which began on January 19, has facilitated hostage exchanges. Israel aims to secure the release of six living hostages and four deceased individuals. Meanwhile, Israel will allow mobile homes for displaced Gazans amid widespread destruction from the ongoing conflicts.

Reuters

The upcoming US-Russia meeting is expected to have a significant impact on the gold market. If the discussions lead to an end of the ongoing war conflicts, we could see a substantial correction in gold prices, potentially in the range of 10-15%. Such a development would likely reduce geopolitical tensions, causing the safe-haven demand for gold to decrease.

In the months following a resolution, gold prices may stabilize, with no major movements anticipated. While there might be some tariff impacts, they are expected to be short-lived and not cause long-term disruptions in the gold market.

Let's see how these events unfold and their impact on gold.

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