Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts
Oil and Water
Rabobank Global Strategist Michael Every began a Tuesday note aptly named "Oil and Water" by acknowledging the value of "oil and water (routes)" in an inflationary, multipolar world: "Especially as Yemen’s Houthis have attacked ships carrying cargo via the Red Sea or Arabian Gulf. Welcome to how the world used to work before British, then US, naval supremacy. This is what a multipolar world is going to look like..."
Michael Every laments that it’s only reactive to attacks on shipping, not proactive at the source: "That maintains the risk for more shipping to divert from Suez round the Cape of Good Hope: if so, global carriers would only be able to make 3-4 Asia-Europe roundtrips per year, not 4-5, a massive structural drop in supply capacity. The Financial Times warns , including the drought in Panama cutting passages there and geopolitical risk threatening the Suez."
The Rabobank report appropriately followed an article out of the FT titled ‘Global pre-Christmas trade at risk from twin canal crises’, which warned of a synergistic supply shock from both the Panama drought and, of course, ongoing geopolitical risks near the Suez.
The FT notes that "Switching routes from Panama to Suez adds five days to journeys between New York and Shanghai... If more shipowners avoid the Suez Canal and take the long route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope for journeys between the same cities, this could add an additional six days to their journey."
At least 167 ships crossed the canal during the first week of December this year, compared with 238 last year. Authorities have for the first time reduced the number of crossings, which by February will be limited to only 18 ships a day.
Multiple shipowners have already applied surcharges of hundreds of dollars per container for exporters sending goods through Panama, as the cost of using the canal increased by up to millions of dollars per ship passage. Hapag-Lloyd announced an upcoming “war risk surcharge” of up to $80 for all shipments to and from Israel.
Rabobank Global Strategist Michael Every began a Tuesday note aptly named "Oil and Water" by acknowledging the value of "oil and water (routes)" in an inflationary, multipolar world: "Especially as Yemen’s Houthis have attacked ships carrying cargo via the Red Sea or Arabian Gulf. Welcome to how the world used to work before British, then US, naval supremacy. This is what a multipolar world is going to look like..."
Michael Every laments that it’s only reactive to attacks on shipping, not proactive at the source: "That maintains the risk for more shipping to divert from Suez round the Cape of Good Hope: if so, global carriers would only be able to make 3-4 Asia-Europe roundtrips per year, not 4-5, a massive structural drop in supply capacity. The Financial Times warns , including the drought in Panama cutting passages there and geopolitical risk threatening the Suez."
The Rabobank report appropriately followed an article out of the FT titled ‘Global pre-Christmas trade at risk from twin canal crises’, which warned of a synergistic supply shock from both the Panama drought and, of course, ongoing geopolitical risks near the Suez.
The FT notes that "Switching routes from Panama to Suez adds five days to journeys between New York and Shanghai... If more shipowners avoid the Suez Canal and take the long route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope for journeys between the same cities, this could add an additional six days to their journey."
At least 167 ships crossed the canal during the first week of December this year, compared with 238 last year. Authorities have for the first time reduced the number of crossings, which by February will be limited to only 18 ships a day.
Multiple shipowners have already applied surcharges of hundreds of dollars per container for exporters sending goods through Panama, as the cost of using the canal increased by up to millions of dollars per ship passage. Hapag-Lloyd announced an upcoming “war risk surcharge” of up to $80 for all shipments to and from Israel.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (FRANCISCVS)
⚓️ 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 U.S. Navy Assets Converge on Yemen
🔶️ Ford carrier strike group & Bataan amphibious ready group en route; U.K. & French destroyers arrive; Standing up International Task Force
📎 Ian Ellis
🔶️ Ford carrier strike group & Bataan amphibious ready group en route; U.K. & French destroyers arrive; Standing up International Task Force
📎 Ian Ellis
Intel Slava Z
⚓️ 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 U.S. Navy Assets Converge on Yemen 🔶️ Ford carrier strike group & Bataan amphibious ready group en route; U.K. & French destroyers arrive; Standing up International Task Force 📎 Ian Ellis
🇺🇸🇾🇪🚢 Wait until they find out the regional US base in Djibouti is in easy missile range from Yemen, and once NATO steps in there's zero reason for the Houthis to further refrain from striking it.
📎 Armchair Warlord
📎 Armchair Warlord
Intel Slava Z
⚓️ 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 U.S. Navy Assets Converge on Yemen 🔶️ Ford carrier strike group & Bataan amphibious ready group en route; U.K. & French destroyers arrive; Standing up International Task Force 📎 Ian Ellis
🇺🇸🇾🇪📝 It really is incredible watching the U.S. expose its top assets in this reckless of a manner.
All of their logistics are exposed here, and the Houthis have just demonstrated that ASBMs work. That should be ringing alarm bells in Washington, especially given the USN already concedes the Houthis have one of the best Anti-Ship missile forces in the world.
All of their logistics are exposed here, and the Houthis have just demonstrated that ASBMs work. That should be ringing alarm bells in Washington, especially given the USN already concedes the Houthis have one of the best Anti-Ship missile forces in the world.
Intel Slava Z
🇺🇸🇾🇪📝 It really is incredible watching the U.S. expose its top assets in this reckless of a manner. All of their logistics are exposed here, and the Houthis have just demonstrated that ASBMs work. That should be ringing alarm bells in Washington, especially…
🇮🇷🇺🇸📝 Can we also acknowledge how masterfully Iran is working its proxies?
The only two American carriers in the region are now tied down either protecting Israel or protecting shipping on the other side of the Arabian peninsula. The only American combat power now directly facing Iran is in fixed positions that would die in the first 30 minutes of an actual war by thousands of Iranian ballistic missiles.
The only two American carriers in the region are now tied down either protecting Israel or protecting shipping on the other side of the Arabian peninsula. The only American combat power now directly facing Iran is in fixed positions that would die in the first 30 minutes of an actual war by thousands of Iranian ballistic missiles.
🇺🇦 A wiretap was found in the office of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, Ukrainian media report citing their sources in the SBU.
As stated, the device was found today during “preparing the premises for work.” The found device was made from elements of an unknown type, so it is not yet possible to establish who planted the wiretap.
As stated, the device was found today during “preparing the premises for work.” The found device was made from elements of an unknown type, so it is not yet possible to establish who planted the wiretap.
🇺🇦 The deputy head of the State Special Transport Service of Ukraine, Colonel Viktor Zhigunov, and three of his subordinates died in the accident, reports UkroSMI.
Media is too big
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 A combat mission of a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces with two FAB-500M62 with UMPC against a target in the Krasnolimansk direction.
🇮🇱🇵🇸 In Israel, they proposed clearing Gaza and turning it into a museum like in the Auschwitz concentration camp
“Send all Gazans to refugee camps in Lebanon and level the entire sector so that it becomes an empty museum like Auschwitz ,” said David Azoulay, head of the city of Metula in northern Israel.
The gusto with which Israel talks about the destruction of the Palestinians, as well as the horrifying analogies, suggest “unlearned history lessons” on the part of the Jews there.
“Send all Gazans to refugee camps in Lebanon and level the entire sector so that it becomes an empty museum like Auschwitz ,” said David Azoulay, head of the city of Metula in northern Israel.
The gusto with which Israel talks about the destruction of the Palestinians, as well as the horrifying analogies, suggest “unlearned history lessons” on the part of the Jews there.
🇪🇺🇭🇺⚡️EU members are considering the possibility of depriving Hungary of its voting rights in order to conclude an agreement on the allocation of funds to Ukraine - FT with reference to European diplomats
🇺🇲🇺🇦 Negotiations on Ukraine in the Senate have failed again, writes the Wall Street Journal. The issue is unlikely to be resolved before Catholic Christmas, the newspaper suggests.
According to her, yesterday a negotiating group met in the Senate to discuss tightening migration policy, but a compromise could not be reached.
This is precisely the issue that Republicans are demanding that Biden resolve - in exchange for a vote for the aid package to Ukraine.
"That has further weakened the chances of any vote before Christmas. The lack of a breakthrough by the self-imposed weekend deadline underscored the difficulties facing Senate negotiations, even after the Biden administration signaled it was willing to make significant concessions on immigration policy." , says the article.
However, many Republicans who did not participate in the discussions "have expressed skepticism about any deal in recent days."
According to her, yesterday a negotiating group met in the Senate to discuss tightening migration policy, but a compromise could not be reached.
This is precisely the issue that Republicans are demanding that Biden resolve - in exchange for a vote for the aid package to Ukraine.
"That has further weakened the chances of any vote before Christmas. The lack of a breakthrough by the self-imposed weekend deadline underscored the difficulties facing Senate negotiations, even after the Biden administration signaled it was willing to make significant concessions on immigration policy." , says the article.
However, many Republicans who did not participate in the discussions "have expressed skepticism about any deal in recent days."
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🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel has discovered the largest Hamas tunnel under the Gaza Strip.
The IDF says it is four kilometers long and the entrance is located just 400 meters from the Erez crossing, which Gazans use daily to enter Israel.
It is curious that for the construction of tunnels Hamas allegedly uses a homemade roadheader, and all mechanical work is as automated as possible.
The dimensions of the structure allow it to accommodate civilian and military cargo, as well as a large number of people. The interior is equipped with ventilation, water and electricity.
The IDF says it is four kilometers long and the entrance is located just 400 meters from the Erez crossing, which Gazans use daily to enter Israel.
It is curious that for the construction of tunnels Hamas allegedly uses a homemade roadheader, and all mechanical work is as automated as possible.
The dimensions of the structure allow it to accommodate civilian and military cargo, as well as a large number of people. The interior is equipped with ventilation, water and electricity.
🇵🇸🇮🇱 The Pope declared Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip terrorism, condemning the massacre of Palestinian civilians.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Everyday work of our soldiers in Marinka.