🇺🇸🏦 As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? US interest payments on debt rising fast w/US debt-to-GDP at 122%.

“As interest costs go up in the US, you get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, cause higher debt issuance, which cause further bond liquidation, which cause higher rates, which put us in an untenable fiscal position," Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC.

📎 Holger Zschaepitz

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Discovered camouflaged MLRS of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

🇺🇸🏦 Many do not understand the implications of US debt service costs rising.

For nearly 20 years, it was effectively free for the US to issue debt as debt service costs were ~1.5%.

Now, debt service costs have doubled to 3% and will rise toward 5% as rates skyrocket.

To put this in perspective, 5% on $33 trillion is ~$1.7 trillion PER YEAR on interest expense.

As deficit spending rises, rates are also rising as the US issues trillions in bonds to cover the deficit.

It's a never ending cycle of borrowing to spend which is driving rates higher and leading to interest expense being 20% of US revenue.

There is no long-term plan.

📎 The Kobeissi Letter

🇺🇸🏦 12-month trailing total of federal receipts is down to $4.176T as of August, down from $4.931T for the 12 months ending Nov. 2022. But don't you dare say we are in a recession. These data lag the SP500 by ~12 months, so it should start turning up soon.

📎 Tom McClellan

🇺🇸🏦 Levered hedge funds have been one of biggest marginal buyers of USTs in recent months as part of the relative value basis trade.

Last month, "a senior exec at one of the world's largest HF's" told FT "If hedge funds stopped buying USTs, I don't know who would buy them."

📎 Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🏦 Foreign share of UST T-Bill holdings (green line in top chart) from 50% in 2015 to 23% now.

Foreign share of UST note & bond holdings (green line in bottom chart) from 63% in 2009 to 33% now.

📎 Luke Gromen

🇺🇸📝 In 1985, the defecit in the USSR was 2% of GDP. By 1990, it had climbed to 10%, but Soviet bonds were still rated as strongly as Canadian or Italian bonds. In 1991, despite super majorities in nine of the 15 Republics voting to keep the USSR together under the auspices of the New Union Treaty, the defecit increased to 30% of GDP and the Union collapsed under the weight of mass inflation.

For those wondering where the United States currently is, it’s at about 8% of GDP and that’s without the widely expected Recession hitting yet.

🇵🇸🇮🇱 Dead Israeli cargo

🇮🇱🇵🇸Evening arrivals in the Gaza Strip

🇱🇧🇺🇲🇮🇱 The Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, in response to the deployment of warships of the US and Israeli navies in the Eastern Mediterranean, showed its Noor anti-ship missiles.

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Fresh footage of the work of the Israeli Armed Forces in the Gaza Strip.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Former soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine take the oath to Russia and will now serve in the Russian Armed Forces.

🇷🇺🇵🇸❗️The evacuation of Russian citizens from the Gaza Strip is expected in the coming days, a diplomatic source told TASS.

“There is reason to believe that in the next day or two, Russians will be evacuated from the Gaza Strip,” the agency’s interlocutor said.

🇩🇪 🏭 📉 Industry Production In Germany Declined In September For The Fourth Time In A Row

💥 Industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% in September compared to the previous month, the fourth monthly decline in a row, according to government figures released on Tuesday — A decline steeper than analysts had expected.

💥 The average forecast anticipated only a 0.1% decline in September, according to the report from Germany's Federal Statistical Office.

💥 In the third quarter as a whole, industrial production fell by 2.1% compared to the previous quarter.

💥 The decline was felt across the board, with the exception of the construction industry, which stagnated, all sectors recorded declines.

💥 The production of industrial goods and energy production both fell by 1.7%.

💥 German banker, Jens-Oliver Niklasch, remarked that weak domestic demand and an uncertain global economy continue to be a burden on German industry, with things unlikely to improve in the short term.

📎 SOURCE

@the_inf0link

🇮🇱🇺🇦❗️Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky postponed his visit to Israel indefinitely, The Times of Israel newspaper reported, citing an Israeli diplomatic source.

Adam Tooze writes that the «special military operation” against the Gaza Strip will plunge the Israeli economy into a severe crisis.
360 thousand reservists have been mobilized - this is 8% of the country’s entire workforce. For comparison: this is as if 6 million people were mobilized in Russia (75 million workforce X 0.08).

“Credit card data suggests that private consumption in Israel has fallen by almost a third. Spending on leisure and entertainment fell by 70%. Tourism, the mainstay of the Israeli economy, has died completely . Flights have been cancelled. Offshore, the Israeli government has ordered Chevron to halt production at the Tamar gas field, costing Israel $200 million a month in lost profits,” Tooze writes.

Adam Tooze uses a simple example to show the Israeli administration's opposite approach to the Gaza Strip towards the West Bank, controlled by collaborationist government led by Abbas.
Under Netanyahu, there has been a very active inclusion of Palestinians from these territories in the Israeli labor market. In 2022, about 200 thousand Palestinians worked in Israel (in 2002 - less than 50 thousand), of which 80 thousand were in construction.

By the way, after the start of the «operation” in Gaza, the Israeli administration blocked access to work for the vast majority of Palestinians from the West Bank, and this is another 5% of the country’s labor market. Many construction projects in Israel will simply stop without Palestinian
workers.
@CIG_telegram

https://t.me/ziglerart/151

🇮🇱🇵🇸❌Israel will not agree to a humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip until the hostages held in the enclave are released - Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant