Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts
New Normal
Steven Zeng at Deutsche Bank notes the stunning (but hardly surprising) reality that Treasury borrowing is "now on par with levels during the 2020-2021 pandemic".
"Both weaker fiscal positions and Fed QT are contributing factors. With a growing view that the Fed may lengthen the duration of QT, and annual deficits projected at around $1.7-$1.8 trillion over the next few years, these issues are unlikely to go away soon."
"At the same time, a widening mismatch between supply and demand for USTs could exacerbate the issue through increased debt interest expenses."
This will continue as the Treasury repays its debts, and there is no way I can imagine it absent structurally persistent inflation and high yields.
Steven Zeng at Deutsche Bank notes the stunning (but hardly surprising) reality that Treasury borrowing is "now on par with levels during the 2020-2021 pandemic".
"Both weaker fiscal positions and Fed QT are contributing factors. With a growing view that the Fed may lengthen the duration of QT, and annual deficits projected at around $1.7-$1.8 trillion over the next few years, these issues are unlikely to go away soon."
"At the same time, a widening mismatch between supply and demand for USTs could exacerbate the issue through increased debt interest expenses."
This will continue as the Treasury repays its debts, and there is no way I can imagine it absent structurally persistent inflation and high yields.
Intel Slava Z
New Normal Steven Zeng at Deutsche Bank notes the stunning (but hardly surprising) reality that Treasury borrowing is "now on par with levels during the 2020-2021 pandemic". "Both weaker fiscal positions and Fed QT are contributing factors. With a growingโฆ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? US interest payments on debt rising fast w/US debt-to-GDP at 122%.
โAs interest costs go up in the US, you get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, cause higher debt issuance, which cause further bond liquidation, which cause higher rates, which put us in an untenable fiscal position," Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC.
๐ Holger Zschaepitz
โAs interest costs go up in the US, you get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, cause higher debt issuance, which cause further bond liquidation, which cause higher rates, which put us in an untenable fiscal position," Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC.
๐ Holger Zschaepitz
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๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ Discovered camouflaged MLRS of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Intel Slava Z
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? US interest payments on debt rising fast w/US debt-to-GDP at 122%. โAs interest costs go up in the US, you get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, causeโฆ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Many do not understand the implications of US debt service costs rising.
For nearly 20 years, it was effectively free for the US to issue debt as debt service costs were ~1.5%.
Now, debt service costs have doubled to 3% and will rise toward 5% as rates skyrocket.
To put this in perspective, 5% on $33 trillion is ~$1.7 trillion PER YEAR on interest expense.
As deficit spending rises, rates are also rising as the US issues trillions in bonds to cover the deficit.
It's a never ending cycle of borrowing to spend which is driving rates higher and leading to interest expense being 20% of US revenue.
There is no long-term plan.
๐ The Kobeissi Letter
For nearly 20 years, it was effectively free for the US to issue debt as debt service costs were ~1.5%.
Now, debt service costs have doubled to 3% and will rise toward 5% as rates skyrocket.
To put this in perspective, 5% on $33 trillion is ~$1.7 trillion PER YEAR on interest expense.
As deficit spending rises, rates are also rising as the US issues trillions in bonds to cover the deficit.
It's a never ending cycle of borrowing to spend which is driving rates higher and leading to interest expense being 20% of US revenue.
There is no long-term plan.
๐ The Kobeissi Letter
Intel Slava Z
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Many do not understand the implications of US debt service costs rising. For nearly 20 years, it was effectively free for the US to issue debt as debt service costs were ~1.5%. Now, debt service costs have doubled to 3% and will rise toward 5% as ratesโฆ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ 12-month trailing total of federal receipts is down to $4.176T as of August, down from $4.931T for the 12 months ending Nov. 2022. But don't you dare say we are in a recession. These data lag the SP500 by ~12 months, so it should start turning up soon.
๐ Tom McClellan
๐ Tom McClellan
Intel Slava Z
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? US interest payments on debt rising fast w/US debt-to-GDP at 122%. โAs interest costs go up in the US, you get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, causeโฆ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Levered hedge funds have been one of biggest marginal buyers of USTs in recent months as part of the relative value basis trade.
Last month, "a senior exec at one of the world's largest HF's" told FT "If hedge funds stopped buying USTs, I don't know who would buy them."
๐ Luke Gromen
Last month, "a senior exec at one of the world's largest HF's" told FT "If hedge funds stopped buying USTs, I don't know who would buy them."
๐ Luke Gromen
Intel Slava Z
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Levered hedge funds have been one of biggest marginal buyers of USTs in recent months as part of the relative value basis trade. Last month, "a senior exec at one of the world's largest HF's" told FT "If hedge funds stopped buying USTs, I don't know whoโฆ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Foreign share of UST T-Bill holdings (green line in top chart) from 50% in 2015 to 23% now.
Foreign share of UST note & bond holdings (green line in bottom chart) from 63% in 2009 to 33% now.
๐ Luke Gromen
Foreign share of UST note & bond holdings (green line in bottom chart) from 63% in 2009 to 33% now.
๐ Luke Gromen
Intel Slava Z
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Foreign share of UST T-Bill holdings (green line in top chart) from 50% in 2015 to 23% now. Foreign share of UST note & bond holdings (green line in bottom chart) from 63% in 2009 to 33% now. ๐ Luke Gromen
๐บ๐ธ๐ In 1985, the defecit in the USSR was 2% of GDP. By 1990, it had climbed to 10%, but Soviet bonds were still rated as strongly as Canadian or Italian bonds. In 1991, despite super majorities in nine of the 15 Republics voting to keep the USSR together under the auspices of the New Union Treaty, the defecit increased to 30% of GDP and the Union collapsed under the weight of mass inflation.
For those wondering where the United States currently is, itโs at about 8% of GDP and thatโs without the widely expected Recession hitting yet.
For those wondering where the United States currently is, itโs at about 8% of GDP and thatโs without the widely expected Recession hitting yet.
Intel Slava Z
๐บ๐ธ๐ฆ Foreign share of UST T-Bill holdings (green line in top chart) from 50% in 2015 to 23% now. Foreign share of UST note & bond holdings (green line in bottom chart) from 63% in 2009 to 33% now. ๐ Luke Gromen
๐จ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ Some in markets are saying China are dumping US Treasuries to firm up the yuan. But Chinese inflation is zero and export growth has been flat this past year. Seems pretty obvious that theyโre dumping US dollar assets after Russian reserve seizures. ๐ต๐๏ธ
๐ Philip Pilkington
๐ Philip Pilkington
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๐ต๐ธ๐ฎ๐ฑ Dead Israeli cargo
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๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธEvening arrivals in the Gaza Strip
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๐ฑ๐ง๐บ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ The Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, in response to the deployment of warships of the US and Israeli navies in the Eastern Mediterranean, showed its Noor anti-ship missiles.
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๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ Fresh footage of the work of the Israeli Armed Forces in the Gaza Strip.
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๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ฆ Former soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine take the oath to Russia and will now serve in the Russian Armed Forces.