⚡️🇮🇷🇮🇱 “Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, some capable of striking as far as Israel and southeast Europe.

For the past decade, Iran has invested significantly to improve these weapons’ precision and lethality. Such developments have made Iran’s missile forces a potent tool for Iranian power projection and a credible threat to U.S. and partner military forces in the region.

Iran is also a major hub for weapons proliferation, supplying partner/proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Syria’s al-Assad regime with a steady supply of missiles and rockets, as well as local production capability.”

📎 Missile Threat Project

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 If the U.S. and Israel stumble into a conflict with Iran, it will be unlike anything either has faced since the 1970s

Iran not only has the capability to strategically bombard Israel proper in response to aggression thanks to deep stocks of munitions, its missile force is also sophisticated to the point it could cripple the U.S. CENTCOM assets in the wider region.

This means not only destroying U.S. bases in places like Iraq or Bahrain, but also closing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to oil shipping. This would likely collapse the Western economies, due to their dependence on foreign oil.

It’s easy to imagine the collapse in U.S. prestige and power projection capabilities that would follow such a conflict, particularly if Iran is able to sink American carriers, as they have the capacity to do.

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 I think this needs to be underlined - the Israelis have taken more casualties in the last [48 hours] than they did in the preceding twelve years of skirmishing with Hamas et al in Gaza, and they were suffered in the heart of Israel.

Never mind 1973, this is a 1948 moment.

📎 Armchair Warlord

🇮🇱 🇺🇦 As the conflict intensifies, the Western world faces a choice: Israel or Ukraine. - Patricia Marins

"If Hezbollah were to engage the IDF forces with its entire arsenal, which includes rockets ranging from 100mm to 620mm with a range of over 150km, modern anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), and numerous Iranian drones, it is likely that Israel would demand significant support in terms of weaponry.

Still their strongest advantage would be the presence of thousands of militants with military experience from Syria and Yemen. This poses a significant challenge for the Israeli army, which primarily consists of professionals without real combat experience and a high number of conscripts, what push Israel to demand the use of a substantial amount of long-range weapons and ammunition.

In recent days, the US has started sending weapons to the IDF. However, the capacity of the US and Western countries, in general, is limited due to the significant deliveries being made to Ukraine.

The issue here is not solely about shells; the Russian invasion has caused a global rush to source materials for various defense industries worldwide. This includes chemicals for explosives, metals, and plastics needed for fuses and artillery shell casings.

If the Israeli conflict intensifies, there could potentially be a shortage of 20mm-40mm ammunition, which theroduced in Western countries has a rate of around 30-40 million rounds per year. This might not be enough considering the high rate of fire of these calibers in an intense conflict.

Furthermore, if Iran decides to maintain a high rate of weapons supply to Hezbollah, the situation could worsen.

Since the 90s, the Israeli industry has greatly downsized, from 140,000 employees to the current workforce of 30,000-40,000.

For example, Elbit Systems, produces only a few tens of thousands of artillery shells annually.

If the Israeli conflict truly escalates, the Western world may come to a point where it has to choose between supplying Israel or Ukraine. The reality is that the Westersn cannot sustain both conflicts simultaneously, so diplomatic solutions must be sought for one of them.

But the situation isn't any better for the Russians. Israel may indeed seek assistance from Russia, particularly due to the significant influence of Soviet immigrants in the establishment of the Israeli defense industry, where they still keep ties to both governments.

In fact, this situation will highlight the importance of defense suppliers from countries that do not have immediate conflicts, such as Turkey, India, Brazil, and South Africa."

📎 Patricia Marins

🇮🇱🇮🇷❗️ Israel does not have evidence of Iranian involvement in the operation of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Politico reports, citing American and Israeli officials.

“We have no evidence or evidence (of Iranian involvement),” Israeli Defense Force spokesman Major Nir Dinar told the publication, adding that, according to the Israeli side, “the Iranians were not surprised” by Hamas’s actions.

🇺🇲🇮🇱❗️The United States does not plan to send troops to Israel, White House spokesman John Kirby said. The first military aid has already been sent.

🇮🇱🇵🇸❗️The Gaza Ministry of Internal Affairs reported attacks on the Rafah checkpoint on the border with Egypt, and also stated that the Egyptian side asked to evacuate people from there. An Egyptian security source told German news agency DPA that the crossing point was closed until further notice.

The Rafah crossing opened in 2005 following the Palestinian-Israeli agreement. This is the only checkpoint between the Gaza Strip and the outside world, besides those on the border with Israel that are not operational.

🇩🇪🇵🇸❗️The German Prosecutor General's Office has launched an investigation into the Palestinian Hamas movement on suspicion, including murders and hostage-taking, which may include German citizens, the Bild newspaper reported, citing its own sources.

🇮🇱🇵🇸 The number of civilian deaths in the Gaza Strip has reached 788. More than 4,000 were injured of varying degrees of severity.

Israel has announced that it is beginning a new wave of shelling of the Gaza Strip.

🇮🇱🇵🇸❗️The IDF press service reports that 123 soldiers and officers of the Israeli army were killed during the fighting.

🇮🇱🇵🇸 A resident of Gaza captured the close arrival of a controlled JDAM bomb on a multi-story building. Based on its size, it was the heaviest version of the JDAM, the GBU-31, weighing 2,000 pounds. The operator was lucky, he survived.