🇺🇸📉 The U.S. has issued $1.8 trillion in Treasuries so far this year which is already the 2nd highest yearly amount in history behind only 2020

📎 Barchart

📝🇺🇸 Lessons from History

While trying to induce a revolution in America, the French ended up inducing a revolution against themselves by going bankrupt with all of their Imperial adventures. We saw similar actions by the European powers as their colonial empires collapsed after World War II, and the interventions of the USSR in its waning years are well known, from Afghanistan to Angola.

There is a lesson there, in the necessity of restraint, of the limits of military force and of the necessity of genuine diplomacy, IF American elites are willing to learn it. I doubt they will, however.

The current American political elite are beholden to too many interests and, regardless, have descended into gerontocracy, unable to conceptualize their glory days are over. Their replacements in newer generations grew up in the Unipolar moment and thus have no psychological ability to understand that time has ended and thus lack the means to adapt accordingly.

This explains much of what we see nowadays around the World.

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🇮🇱❗️Israeli intelligence had no information about the preparation of an attack by the Palestinian Hamas movement, American and Israeli officials told The New York Times. They called it an intelligence failure.

The newspaper notes that Hamas managed to “suppress” Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system. It was overloaded with “a barrage of inexpensive but deadly missiles,” writes the NYT, specifying that the missile defense system itself is already ten years old.

⚡️🇮🇷🇮🇱 “Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, some capable of striking as far as Israel and southeast Europe.

For the past decade, Iran has invested significantly to improve these weapons’ precision and lethality. Such developments have made Iran’s missile forces a potent tool for Iranian power projection and a credible threat to U.S. and partner military forces in the region.

Iran is also a major hub for weapons proliferation, supplying partner/proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Syria’s al-Assad regime with a steady supply of missiles and rockets, as well as local production capability.”

📎 Missile Threat Project

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 If the U.S. and Israel stumble into a conflict with Iran, it will be unlike anything either has faced since the 1970s

Iran not only has the capability to strategically bombard Israel proper in response to aggression thanks to deep stocks of munitions, its missile force is also sophisticated to the point it could cripple the U.S. CENTCOM assets in the wider region.

This means not only destroying U.S. bases in places like Iraq or Bahrain, but also closing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to oil shipping. This would likely collapse the Western economies, due to their dependence on foreign oil.

It’s easy to imagine the collapse in U.S. prestige and power projection capabilities that would follow such a conflict, particularly if Iran is able to sink American carriers, as they have the capacity to do.

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 I think this needs to be underlined - the Israelis have taken more casualties in the last [48 hours] than they did in the preceding twelve years of skirmishing with Hamas et al in Gaza, and they were suffered in the heart of Israel.

Never mind 1973, this is a 1948 moment.

📎 Armchair Warlord

🇮🇱 🇺🇦 As the conflict intensifies, the Western world faces a choice: Israel or Ukraine. - Patricia Marins

"If Hezbollah were to engage the IDF forces with its entire arsenal, which includes rockets ranging from 100mm to 620mm with a range of over 150km, modern anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), and numerous Iranian drones, it is likely that Israel would demand significant support in terms of weaponry.

Still their strongest advantage would be the presence of thousands of militants with military experience from Syria and Yemen. This poses a significant challenge for the Israeli army, which primarily consists of professionals without real combat experience and a high number of conscripts, what push Israel to demand the use of a substantial amount of long-range weapons and ammunition.

In recent days, the US has started sending weapons to the IDF. However, the capacity of the US and Western countries, in general, is limited due to the significant deliveries being made to Ukraine.

The issue here is not solely about shells; the Russian invasion has caused a global rush to source materials for various defense industries worldwide. This includes chemicals for explosives, metals, and plastics needed for fuses and artillery shell casings.

If the Israeli conflict intensifies, there could potentially be a shortage of 20mm-40mm ammunition, which theroduced in Western countries has a rate of around 30-40 million rounds per year. This might not be enough considering the high rate of fire of these calibers in an intense conflict.

Furthermore, if Iran decides to maintain a high rate of weapons supply to Hezbollah, the situation could worsen.

Since the 90s, the Israeli industry has greatly downsized, from 140,000 employees to the current workforce of 30,000-40,000.

For example, Elbit Systems, produces only a few tens of thousands of artillery shells annually.

If the Israeli conflict truly escalates, the Western world may come to a point where it has to choose between supplying Israel or Ukraine. The reality is that the Westersn cannot sustain both conflicts simultaneously, so diplomatic solutions must be sought for one of them.

But the situation isn't any better for the Russians. Israel may indeed seek assistance from Russia, particularly due to the significant influence of Soviet immigrants in the establishment of the Israeli defense industry, where they still keep ties to both governments.

In fact, this situation will highlight the importance of defense suppliers from countries that do not have immediate conflicts, such as Turkey, India, Brazil, and South Africa."

📎 Patricia Marins

🇮🇱🇮🇷❗️ Israel does not have evidence of Iranian involvement in the operation of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Politico reports, citing American and Israeli officials.

“We have no evidence or evidence (of Iranian involvement),” Israeli Defense Force spokesman Major Nir Dinar told the publication, adding that, according to the Israeli side, “the Iranians were not surprised” by Hamas’s actions.