🌐🛢️Oil Headed for $150 Without US Support for More Drilling, Shale CEO Says

Oil is headed as high as $150 a barrel unless the US government does more to encourage exploration, according to Continental Resources, the shale driller controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm.

Crude output in the Permian Basin will one day peak as it already has in rival shale regions such as the Bakken region of North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas, Continental Chief Executive Officer Doug Lawler said during an interview with Bloomberg TV. Without new production, “you’re going to see $120 to $150” oil, he said.

“That’s going to send a shock through the system,” he said. Without policies encouraging new drilling, “you’re going to see more pressure on price.”

- Bloomberg

🇷🇺🛢️ Russian Oil Is Trading Closer to $100 Than the G-7’s Price Cap

Russian oil is continuing to rise, defying an increasingly redundant price cap put in place by the Group of Seven and its allies.

Crude from the country’s western ports has rallied along with headline futures in recent days, Argus Media Ltd. data show. Russia’s flagship Urals grade is trading at $85.35 a barrel from the Baltic port of Primorsk and $86 from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

🇷🇸👶 Serbian births for the first eight months of 2023 have increased 0.33% year on year. Considering the annual decline in the female fertile population this is a very decent result. TFR will likely be ~1.7 this year. Much higher than Croatia, Albania, or Bosnia.

- Aaronal16

🇷🇸👶 The fertile population in Serbia will decrease by over 160k in the next 10 years, possible even to 200k with emigration. If Serbia can hold their births at their 2022 level (62,7k) by 2032 they should have a TFR of 1.8-1.85

- dzonibravo

🇨🇳📈 China Industrial Profits Jump Sharply as Economy Stabilizes

- Christophe Barraud

🇨🇳📈 China is stronger than you think

1. Foreign investors selling (top left)
2. "True" FDI inflows strong (bottom left)
3. Weak exports are cyclical (middle top)
4. Manufacturing & services ok (middle bottom)
5. Electricity consumption ok (right top)
6. Vehicle sales ok (right bottom)

- Robin Brooks

🪖🇺🇦 Ukraine has the worst demographics in the world.

If there are reports of manpower shortages already and daily videos of men being snatched off the streets, then how do they plan on fighting this war for years?

- From Kherson

🪖🇺🇦 Hundreds of flags - each one of them bearing the name of a local Ukrainian soldier killed in action during the war - were placed today by family members at a small memorial ceremony in Lvov. Realizing the implications, the authorities cancelled the event after an hour.

- Armchair Warlord

🪖🇷🇺🇺🇦 Either Russia has massively ramped up glide bomb production, or Ukrainian air defenses have degraded to the point that KABs can now reach the frontline.

840 FAB-500s per month delivers as much explosives as 1,200 152mm shells per day, without even taking into account the effects of precision.

- TNG5

🇺🇸📉 New Orleans bracing for major threat to drinking water supply

Salt water creeping up the Mississippi River is threatening the drinking water supply in New Orleans for the first time in more than 30 years.

The water supply for more than 1.2 million people is expected to become unsafe to drink by late October. If contaminated, it could be weeks or months before freshwater returns, unless there is significant rainfall, leaders say.

- Axios

🇺🇸🌾 Mississippi River Near Historic Lows Putting Grain Exports at Risk

The Mississippi River at near historic lows & what that means for grain exports, bulker operations & the importance of the river in American trade.

- YouTube

🇬🇧🇦🇺🇺🇸👶 Bad demographic news for the Anglosphere/FVEY countries shaping up this year. Based on at least the first three months of births for 2023 the US will have the lowest TFR on record of ~1.63, Canada lowest low sub 1.3, Australia & New Zealand both sub 1.6. UK sub 1.5.

- Aaronal16

🇺🇸👶 Projections show the percentage of childless women age 44 & older in the US may rise close to, or even exceed, the all time high reached by women born in the early 1900s, who faced numerous headwinds. The cohort born in the late 1980s is giving them a run for their money.

- Aaronal16

🇺🇸 ❌️ 🇹🇷 A U.S. jet fighter shot down a Turkish drone in Syria after it was deemed a threat to U.S. forces in northeast Syria, a person familiar with the episode told WSJ

• A US official said they were aware that it was a Turkish drone

📎 Ragip Soylu

https://archive.ph/0wFzI

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Ukraine is ‘freaking out’ as Kevin McCarthy chaos threatens US aid

“We are freaking out. For us it is a disaster,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a senior Ukrainian MP who chairs the committee on the country’s integration with the European Union.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-mccarthy-united-states-speaker-war-russia-invasion-weapons-ammunition

🌐🏭 A summary of the latest PMI surveys for manufacturing industry worldwide.
50+ ➡️ expansion
sub-50 ➡️ contraction
Russia🇷🇺 at the top, US🇺🇸-ve, Germany🇩🇪 at the bottom!

- Tony Norfield