🇷🇺🇺🇦❗Ukrainian media reports about an air strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces on Zmeiny Island in the Black Sea.
🇩🇪⛽️ Germany's energy-intensive industries (red line) continue to suffer, with production falling in May sharply. The impact of the energy crisis in Europe is not over. There's a reason why EU gas demand remains so lackluster.
- Javier Blas
- Javier Blas
🇫🇷🌾 Cumulative food inflation since 2021 has been around 21%, while nominal spending on food only rose 5%, giving us this deeply negative real food consumption chart.
- Boris Kovacevic
- Boris Kovacevic
🇫🇷🌾 Nice chart showing collapse of food consumption as % of disposable income. Looks like a 2% (!) drop in a year. Nothing like it on record (put that in Z-score space!). With 22% increase in food prices, many are finding it too expensive to maintain previous consumption levels.
- Philip Pilkington
- Philip Pilkington
🇪🇺⛽️ We have consistently said that the EU energy crisis is not over. Last year, Europe had 6 months of Russian gas and little competition for LNG from China, which was in COVID lockdown. Neither is true of this year. There is no Russian gas, and China is back on the LNG market.
- Multipolarity Podcast
- Multipolarity Podcast
🇺🇸🏦 The commercial real estate crash is happening.📉
Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%.
Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for US Economy.
- Nick Gerli
Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%.
Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for US Economy.
- Nick Gerli
🏦🌐 Actual defaults, as opposed to paper losses on government debt, are starting to climb. Credit cards and commercial property loans first to go. In EU banks are issuing ultra-safe debt to plug funding gap left by central bank rescinding its QE programs.
- Philip Pilkington
- Philip Pilkington
🏦🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley thinks that US commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies will surge after a 30% decline in office property values; almost $1.5trn of US CRE debt comes due before the end of 2025. This could easily cause a serious banking crisis, with the epicentre in regional banks (see chart, left, showing the concentration of CRE in regional banks). However, as we have said many times, it would also cause problems for *cities*, given their revenue reliance on real estate and commercial taxes (see table, right, showing NYC revenue breakdown).
- Multipolarity Podcast
- Multipolarity Podcast
Media is too big
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Video from the phone of a Ukrainian soldier who, together with his brothers-in-arms, occupied one of the trenches near Pyatikhatki, carefully mined in advance by our sappers.
As a gift to the opponents, a mine MON-50 with remote detonation was left, which was the last thing that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine saw in their lives.
After the detonation of the trap, our artillery began to pile on the enemy who occupied the trenches, which completed the fate of the survivors.
As a gift to the opponents, a mine MON-50 with remote detonation was left, which was the last thing that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine saw in their lives.
After the detonation of the trap, our artillery began to pile on the enemy who occupied the trenches, which completed the fate of the survivors.
🇺🇸💵 King Dollar For How Long?
The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 73% to 58% over the last two decades.
Considering the currency exchange rates, dollar’s actual share is 47%.
Since Russia decided to de-Nazify Ukraine, dollar’s share has fallen precipitously.
Worldwide dedollarization has just begun in earnest. The US will feel the pinch soon. For now, high interest rates are saving the USD.
- SL Kanthan
The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 73% to 58% over the last two decades.
Considering the currency exchange rates, dollar’s actual share is 47%.
Since Russia decided to de-Nazify Ukraine, dollar’s share has fallen precipitously.
Worldwide dedollarization has just begun in earnest. The US will feel the pinch soon. For now, high interest rates are saving the USD.
- SL Kanthan
🇺🇸🏦⛽️ US shale has represented ~90% of global oil production growth over the past 10 yrs.
That means this [Chart] is foreshadowing reduced oil production, which means this is foreshadowing stagflation, NOT deflation.
When the bond market figures this out, things are gonna get interesting.
- Luke Gromen
That means this [Chart] is foreshadowing reduced oil production, which means this is foreshadowing stagflation, NOT deflation.
When the bond market figures this out, things are gonna get interesting.
- Luke Gromen
Intel Slava Z
🇺🇸🏦⛽️ US shale has represented ~90% of global oil production growth over the past 10 yrs. That means this [Chart] is foreshadowing reduced oil production, which means this is foreshadowing stagflation, NOT deflation. When the bond market figures this out…
🌐⛽️ Conventional oil production has now unequivocally rolled over. Unconventional production, the only source of growth in global oil supply over the last 12 years, has also significantly slowed. The only growing non-OPEC basin is the Permian in West Texas. Never before has oil supply growth been so geographically concentrated. Six counties in West Texas are now 100% responsible for all global production growth.
- GoRozen
- GoRozen
Gorozen
Hubbert's Peak is Finally Here
In this blog, G&R discusses why they believe Hubbert's Peak is finally here.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 The world seems a lot more chaotic after three years of Biden than it did before, even under the often volatile Donald Trump.
- UnHerd
- UnHerd
UnHerd
It’s too late for Joe Biden to make friends with China
Janet Yellen had a pretty successful trip in Beijing at the end of last week. The US Treasury secretary highlighted that, in spite of recent tensions, the two countries set a record in 2022 for bilateral trade. She also emphasised the need to coordinate on…
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Ever more stories are emerging which suggest that US restrictions on China's access to chips is far more painful for US businesses than expected. One point to note here: this industry is extremely capital intensive. Losses in revenue might hobble US companies' ability to compete.
- Multipolarity Podcast
- Multipolarity Podcast
🇺🇸🇨🇳 An inevitable outcome of the post-71 structure of USD reserve status - US had to cease making things (like semiconductors & Navy ships) in favor of exporting USTs.
Once China stopped buying USTs on net in 2014, structure of USD reserve status needed to change (to one w/a neutral reserve asset).
The US can maintain the international trade value of the USD (& therefore the real value of bonds), or it can produce more of the goods it needs here (letting inflation run very hot for a few years, crushing the real value of bonds), but it cannot do both.
- Luke Gromen
Once China stopped buying USTs on net in 2014, structure of USD reserve status needed to change (to one w/a neutral reserve asset).
The US can maintain the international trade value of the USD (& therefore the real value of bonds), or it can produce more of the goods it needs here (letting inflation run very hot for a few years, crushing the real value of bonds), but it cannot do both.
- Luke Gromen
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Vladimir Putin made a number of statements regarding the "grain deal" and its future. Brief theses:
❗️ Nothing has been done for Russia as part of the grain deal - a one-sided game.
❗️ We voluntarily extended the grain deal many times, enough in the end .
❗️ Russia will extend the grain deal only when the promises made to it are fulfilled .
❗️ Nothing has been done for Russia as part of the grain deal - a one-sided game.
❗️ We voluntarily extended the grain deal many times, enough in the end .
❗️ Russia will extend the grain deal only when the promises made to it are fulfilled .
🇷🇺🇺🇦 The moment of a powerful explosion in Krivoy Rog.