Intel Slava Z
πΊπ¦πΆ Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has a piece on the demographic situation there. βͺοΈ Ms. Libanova predicts Ukrainian TFR was only 0.90 in 2022 & may be as low as 0.70β¦
Admin Comment: To the last Ukrainian, indeed...
πΊπΈπ¦ Interesting comment from a BoA analyst. If the full implications of interest rare hikes get baked into financial markets interest payments would rise by the equivalent of Japanese and German GDP combined. Post-QE global economy is way over-leveraged!
- Philip Pilkington
- Philip Pilkington
Intel Slava Z
πΊπΈπ¦ Interesting comment from a BoA analyst. If the full implications of interest rare hikes get baked into financial markets interest payments would rise by the equivalent of Japanese and German GDP combined. Post-QE global economy is way over-leveraged! β¦
UnHerd
Is a 2008-style credit crisis imminent?
As a slew of banks wither from the Federal Reserveβs tight money policies, the noose is finally tightening in credit markets. Monetary policy impacts the economy in two ways. First, it makes the cost of credit β the interest rate β more expensive, which discouragesβ¦
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π·πΊπΊπ¦ The defeat of the Ukrainian armored personnel carrier YPR-765 by an FPV drone.
π·πΊπΊπ¦ FPV drone strikes of the 1st Slavyansk brigade on a tank and infantry fighting vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Avdeevka direction.
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π·πΊπΊπ¦ Accurate work of a sniper pair of DPR on the Ukrainian military.
π©πͺπ΅π±πΊπ¦β‘Germany terminates an agreement with the Polish authorities on the repair of Leopard 2 tanks transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Poland - Handelsblatt.
The reason for this step is called inadequately overpriced by 10 times from Poland. According to the German publication, about half of the Leopard 2 tanks delivered to Ukraine are already damaged.
Each tank requires several hundred hours of work to repair, so a service center on the border of Poland and Ukraine had to solve this problem. However, now, apparently, options for repairing damaged German equipment are being considered in other countries.
The reason for this step is called inadequately overpriced by 10 times from Poland. According to the German publication, about half of the Leopard 2 tanks delivered to Ukraine are already damaged.
Each tank requires several hundred hours of work to repair, so a service center on the border of Poland and Ukraine had to solve this problem. However, now, apparently, options for repairing damaged German equipment are being considered in other countries.
π·πΊπΊπ¦βUkrainian media reports about an air strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces on Zmeiny Island in the Black Sea.
π©πͺβ½οΈ Germany's energy-intensive industries (red line) continue to suffer, with production falling in May sharply. The impact of the energy crisis in Europe is not over. There's a reason why EU gas demand remains so lackluster.
- Javier Blas
- Javier Blas
π«π·πΎ Cumulative food inflation since 2021 has been around 21%, while nominal spending on food only rose 5%, giving us this deeply negative real food consumption chart.
- Boris Kovacevic
- Boris Kovacevic
π«π·πΎ Nice chart showing collapse of food consumption as % of disposable income. Looks like a 2% (!) drop in a year. Nothing like it on record (put that in Z-score space!). With 22% increase in food prices, many are finding it too expensive to maintain previous consumption levels.
- Philip Pilkington
- Philip Pilkington
πͺπΊβ½οΈ We have consistently said that the EU energy crisis is not over. Last year, Europe had 6 months of Russian gas and little competition for LNG from China, which was in COVID lockdown. Neither is true of this year. There is no Russian gas, and China is back on the LNG market.
- Multipolarity Podcast
- Multipolarity Podcast
πΊπΈπ¦ The commercial real estate crash is happening.π
Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%.
Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for US Economy.
- Nick Gerli
Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%.
Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for US Economy.
- Nick Gerli
π¦π Actual defaults, as opposed to paper losses on government debt, are starting to climb. Credit cards and commercial property loans first to go. In EU banks are issuing ultra-safe debt to plug funding gap left by central bank rescinding its QE programs.
- Philip Pilkington
- Philip Pilkington
π¦πΊπΈ Morgan Stanley thinks that US commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies will surge after a 30% decline in office property values; almost $1.5trn of US CRE debt comes due before the end of 2025. This could easily cause a serious banking crisis, with the epicentre in regional banks (see chart, left, showing the concentration of CRE in regional banks). However, as we have said many times, it would also cause problems for *cities*, given their revenue reliance on real estate and commercial taxes (see table, right, showing NYC revenue breakdown).
- Multipolarity Podcast
- Multipolarity Podcast