🇷🇺🇺🇦 Trophies of our soldiers, captured during the assault on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov region.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 The British edition of The Telegraph regretfully reports that in order to achieve success, Ukrainian troops must break through the defense line, the depth of which is up to thirty kilometers, which consists of minefields, anti-tank ditches, equipped with long-term firing points, infantry positions, "dragon's teeth", powerful artillery batteries and other delights. The length of this line is more than 900 kilometers. The publication makes a fair conclusion that the mission is impossible. And the battles are now taking place only at the front line, and the Ukrainian assault groups are far from able to reach them.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 336 marine brigade burning Ukrainian equipment in Zaporozhye region
🇷🇺 Friends, if someone expected that the Ukrainian offensive would be repulsed without temporary loss of some villages or some advanced positions, then you are far from military topics. The initiative was and still remains with the enemy, who calculated the forces and means for a successful breakthrough of our front. As expected in an offensive, the enemy threw more infantry and equipment into battle than we had on the defensive. Despite this, the goals of the enemy’s offensive plan to break through our front and enter the operational space failed in the first 3 days with huge losses for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In the first two days in the Zaporozhye direction, we lost two positions, which we returned on the third day. In the South-Donetsk direction, the enemy is loudly declaring progress in some areas, most of which was the territory of the gray zone. Regular military work is going on.
In the first two days in the Zaporozhye direction, we lost two positions, which we returned on the third day. In the South-Donetsk direction, the enemy is loudly declaring progress in some areas, most of which was the territory of the gray zone. Regular military work is going on.
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🇺🇦🇷🇺 Kiev closed the discharge of water at the Dnieper hydroelectric power station for an offensive in the Kherson direction.
The termination of the discharge at the Dnieper HPP will lead to the maximum shallowing of the Dnieper River along its entire course (in particular, in the Kherson region). This will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to force the riverbed to the south.
The termination of the discharge at the Dnieper HPP will lead to the maximum shallowing of the Dnieper River along its entire course (in particular, in the Kherson region). This will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to force the riverbed to the south.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇲 Destruction by the Lancet of an American Oshkosh M-ATV
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV tank with a KMT-7 mine trawl in the Zaporozhye direction
Analysis of the current situation:
On the whole, I’m pretty unbothered by things and the following map shows why; the AFU has yet to reach the first major defensive line despite their successes today. Their struggles to advance so far have been against the screening line, which is pretty ominous for their prospects given the fact the Russian defensive lines are classic echelon defense and more fortified than what they have yet faced.
So, what exactly happened today? As multiple other channels noted, the weather turned sour over the battlefield and rains have begun. This has limited drone recon for artillery spotting, Lancet strikes and also restricted fixed wing close air support. It’s no coincidence the AFU has made its largest gains to date at precisely the same moment the aforementioned issues started for Russia; they took the window and are leveraging it for all its worth. Bad news for the AFU is the weather forecast suggests it will only rain for another 24-36 hours and rapidly turn sunny thereafter. Russian air advantage will be back with the predictable results.
As for what happens next, the AFU might be able to use the remaining window to advance up to the main defensive belt in this sector. Problem is, as of yesterday, visually confirmed losses are already at 10% in many vehicle categories. Generally speaking, at 15-20% losses, units become combat ineffective.
The losses haven’t been equally distributed of course, so the AFU still retains several reserve units to employ, but these losses before the main defensive belt paint a pretty negative picture for their future prospects as previously stated. Noticeably, reports from both sides have largely stopped mentioning the AFU 47th Brigade in the last 24 hours and a lot of the confirmed losses were by them over the past week. This is an indication they might have been exhausted already, which is pretty big as they were one of the Western trained and equipped brigades selected for offensive.
On the whole, I’m pretty unbothered by things and the following map shows why; the AFU has yet to reach the first major defensive line despite their successes today. Their struggles to advance so far have been against the screening line, which is pretty ominous for their prospects given the fact the Russian defensive lines are classic echelon defense and more fortified than what they have yet faced.
So, what exactly happened today? As multiple other channels noted, the weather turned sour over the battlefield and rains have begun. This has limited drone recon for artillery spotting, Lancet strikes and also restricted fixed wing close air support. It’s no coincidence the AFU has made its largest gains to date at precisely the same moment the aforementioned issues started for Russia; they took the window and are leveraging it for all its worth. Bad news for the AFU is the weather forecast suggests it will only rain for another 24-36 hours and rapidly turn sunny thereafter. Russian air advantage will be back with the predictable results.
As for what happens next, the AFU might be able to use the remaining window to advance up to the main defensive belt in this sector. Problem is, as of yesterday, visually confirmed losses are already at 10% in many vehicle categories. Generally speaking, at 15-20% losses, units become combat ineffective.
The losses haven’t been equally distributed of course, so the AFU still retains several reserve units to employ, but these losses before the main defensive belt paint a pretty negative picture for their future prospects as previously stated. Noticeably, reports from both sides have largely stopped mentioning the AFU 47th Brigade in the last 24 hours and a lot of the confirmed losses were by them over the past week. This is an indication they might have been exhausted already, which is pretty big as they were one of the Western trained and equipped brigades selected for offensive.
Intel Slava Z
Analysis of the current situation: On the whole, I’m pretty unbothered by things and the following map shows why; the AFU has yet to reach the first major defensive line despite their successes today. Their struggles to advance so far have been against the…
🇷🇺🇺🇦 AFU continues to struggle against the screening line of the Russian defensive belt, and have yet to reach the forward main line.
Intel Slava Z
Analysis of the current situation: On the whole, I’m pretty unbothered by things and the following map shows why; the AFU has yet to reach the first major defensive line despite their successes today. Their struggles to advance so far have been against the…
Addendum:
While the current poor weather has enabled the AFU advance, it’s also imposed operational constraints that will have negative consequences once the rains stop.
As others have noted, the past 24 hours have seen the AFU advance largely restricted to the lowlands where the local main (paved) road is. This is likely because the rains and resulting mud restrict their off road mobility.
As a result, they are forming a bulge surrounded by Russians with the high ground advantage for artillery on two sides and are in largely open terrain once the rains stop and Russian air power returns. This will have predictable results…
While the current poor weather has enabled the AFU advance, it’s also imposed operational constraints that will have negative consequences once the rains stop.
As others have noted, the past 24 hours have seen the AFU advance largely restricted to the lowlands where the local main (paved) road is. This is likely because the rains and resulting mud restrict their off road mobility.
As a result, they are forming a bulge surrounded by Russians with the high ground advantage for artillery on two sides and are in largely open terrain once the rains stop and Russian air power returns. This will have predictable results…
Intel Slava Z
🇺🇸🇺🇦 By far the funniest thing about this offensive so far is how all of the Western Twitter “experts” have cope and seethe threads up today trying to explain away the AFU losses incurred so far. Noticeably, they all have the same talking points, were posted…
As a final closing thought for now, we noted the other day there was a pretty obvious ad hoc Ukrainian propaganda effort underway on Twitter to downplay their losses. A lot of the same culprits are now doing an obvious effort to play up their gains today.
They’re making a lot of sensational claims, they’re throwing out terms, etc but in total there’s a noticeable lack of supporting evidence and many of their claims are outright contradictory. Case in point, I’ve seen it claimed the dam that was destroyed today cut off Russian troops in one of the villages…the Pro Ukrainian accounts seem to have forgot that they had previously announced they controlled the village in question, so one wonders how exactly those two statements can be true at the same time.
Main takeaway all should have right now is that, despite their successes, they’ve categorically failed to achieve any sort of operational breakthrough.
They’re making a lot of sensational claims, they’re throwing out terms, etc but in total there’s a noticeable lack of supporting evidence and many of their claims are outright contradictory. Case in point, I’ve seen it claimed the dam that was destroyed today cut off Russian troops in one of the villages…the Pro Ukrainian accounts seem to have forgot that they had previously announced they controlled the village in question, so one wonders how exactly those two statements can be true at the same time.
Main takeaway all should have right now is that, despite their successes, they’ve categorically failed to achieve any sort of operational breakthrough.
Intel Slava Z
Addendum: While the current poor weather has enabled the AFU advance, it’s also imposed operational constraints that will have negative consequences once the rains stop. As others have noted, the past 24 hours have seen the AFU advance largely restricted…
🇷🇺🇺🇦 “One of the worst parts about this counteroffensive is that 🇺🇦 has started it without proper AD or air support and is knowingly sacrificing its men in hopes to achieve at least some tactical breakthroughs along the frontline by throwing bodies against well prepared 🇷🇺 defenses.”
- Olga Bazova
- Olga Bazova