🇷🇺🎖️ The sailors of the reconnaissance ship "Ivan Khurs" who distinguished themselves in repelling the attack of naval drones north of the Bosphorus Strait will be presented for state awards.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The Armed Forces of Ukraine may attempt a counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye region in the next 5-7 days, - Balitsky

The enemy is conducting "serious artillery preparation," the head of the region said.

🇷🇺 Advertising video for contract service in the RF Ministry of Defense. It can be noted that over the past year the quality of campaign products has increased significantly.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Destruction of the ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Terny, DPR.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡Visual infographics on the manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed by Wagner units from March 2022 to May 2023.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 An explosion is reported in Kramatorsk.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Lancet kamikaze drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles. Presumably, the combat vehicles belonged to the RDK militants

🇷🇺🇸🇦 “In our states, both in the Russian Federation and in the Kingdom, they do not accept attempts from outside to bring some specific Western values to our countries. They may soon marry animals, but this does not mean that we should follow their principles. There, probably, someone is already grunting in anticipation. But nevertheless, both the Saudis and the Russians have an unequivocal position of preserving our traditional values,” Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev following his visit to Saudi Arabia.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun preliminary operations as part of the counteroffensive, but it will take quite a long time for it to gain momentum, adviser to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president Mikhail Podolyak said in an interview with The Guardian.

🇦🇲🇦🇿 Not even a decade ago Azerbaijan had a TFR above 2.0 while Armenia had a TFR of ~1.6. If birth trends for 2023 hold then their TFR levels will have flipped and Armenia will end the year with a TFR of ~1.9 and Azerbaijan ~1.6. Incredible shift in such a short period of time.

- Aaronal16

🇦🇱👶 Albanian births in the first quarter are down by an incredible ~15%. Albania saw only 5,164 births in Q1 of 2023 compared with 6,056 recorded during the first quarter of last year. Likely approaching Italian level TFR.

⚫️ Even when taking Albania’s high emigration rate into consideration TFR was 1.4 last year and will likely be sub 1.3 this year. @BirthGauge makes these adjustments and estimated 2022 Albanian TFR at 1.4 rather than the official sub 1.3 for that year.

⚫️ So any way you slice it Albanian TFR is in really bad shape. The country’s population is likely to go below 2M before 2050 and Albanian politicians are largely ignoring this demographic crisis.

- Aaronal16

🇷🇸🇦🇱 Serbia has played the long game and won, with most recent data suggesting their TFR is around 1.7 per woman as compared to Albanian fertility crashing to lowest low levels.

With Albania and Kosovo seeing low fertility and mass emigration, restoring control over Kosovo will come naturally soon enough.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 American news outlet 19FortyFive: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way

▪️ Based on a likely fire superiority of 10-to-1 on the Russian side, Ukraine no doubt suffered considerably more casualties in those fights than the Russians. But even if the cost were equal, Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters and a major domestic industrial capacity to produce all the ammunition they may require.

▪️ Even bigger than the dearth of ammunition and equipment for Ukraine, however, is the number of trained and experienced personnel they’ve lost. Many of those skilled troops and leaders simply cannot be replaced in the span of mere months.

“I assess there is currently no likely path for Ukraine to achieve a military victory. Continuing to fight in that hope may perversely result in them losing even more territory.”

- Link to archived article

🇺🇸🏦 The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield has moved up to 5.40%, its highest level since January 2001. A year ago it was at 1.03% and two years ago it was at 0.01%.

- Charlie Bilello

🇺🇸🏦 U.S. Debt Crisis

“The government has always raised the debt ceiling in the past - and likely will again. What matters here is the amount of time it takes to do so. The longer the resolution to raise the debt ceiling is pushed back, the higher Treasury rates will jump. But why does this matter to you? Well, it all boils down to confidence—investors' confidence in the United States' ability to honor its debt obligations.

If that confidence wavers, debtholders will demand higher rates to compensate for the perceived risk. And guess what? Those rising Treasury rates have a direct impact on mortgage rates, pushing the dream of affordable housing further out of reach.”

- Genco Substack