GOLD IS BEING OFFERED AT $30 PER OUNCE DISCOUNT IN DUBAI: BBG

TRADERS OFFERING STEEP DISCOUNTS AS BUYERS UNWILLING TO PAY HIGH SHIPPING, INSURANCE COSTS WITH NO DELIVERY GUARANTEE AND TO AVOID INDEFINITE STORAGE COSTS: INFINITYHEDGE

QATAR'S ENERGY MINISTER SAYS THAT THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST COULD BRING DOWN THE ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD

QATAR SAYS GULF MAY BE FORCED TO STOP ENERGY EXPORTS IN WEEKS

QATAR SAYS OIL COULD SOAR TO $150 WITHIN TWO TO THREE WEEKS: FT

QATAR SAYS PRODUCTION IN QATAR WILL NOT RESTART UNTIL THERE IS A COMPLETE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES: INFINITYHEDGE

Energy fund manager Eric Nuttall: We are experiencing the largest loss of oil supply in history (3X bigger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo).

If the Strait remains closed we are losing ~450MM Bbls per month. That exceeds the entirety of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is not some small supply interruption...this is historic in magnitude and consequence

U.S. Treasury eased oil sanctions on the Russia, allowing Indian refineries to buy the millions of barrels of Russian crude on floating storage until early April

Markets, Policymakers and Public drastically underreacting to the severity of the situation

RUSSIA IS PROVIDING IRAN INTELLIGENCE TO TARGET US FORCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, OFFICIALS SAY – WASHINGTON POST: INFINITYHEDGE

US FEB. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE -92K M/M; EST. +59K

US FEB. TWO-MONTH PAYROLL NET REVISION SUBTRACTS 69k

US FEB. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.4%; EST. 4.3%

BIGGEST MONTHLY DECLINE IN PAYROLLS SINCE OCTOBER

PRIVATE PAYROLLS -86K, WORST SINCE DEC 2020

TRUMP: NO DEAL WITH IRAN EXCEPT UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER

TRUMP: AFTER SURRENDER, IRAN CAN SELECT GREAT,ACCEPTABLE LEADER

TRUMP: MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)

BLACKROCK’S $26 BILLION PRIVATE CREDIT FUND LIMITS WITHDRAWALS: BBG

SHAREHOLDERS REQUESTED 9.3% BUT MANAGEMENT CAPPED AT 5%

PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS BRACE FOR REDEMPTION WAVE AS BLACKROCK, BLACKSTONE, BLUE OWL FACE RECORD WITHDRAWAL REQUESTS

BLACKSTONE FLAGSHIP PRIVATE CREDIT FUND FULFILLED RECORD "7.9% OF SHARES" EARLIER IN WEEK WITH FIRM AND EMPLOYEES STEPPING IN TO OFFSET: INFINITYHEDGE

BLACKROCK SHARES DOWN 6%

IRGC SPOKESMAN CHALLENGES TRUMP TO HAVE US VESSELS ESCORT OIL TANKERS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - IRANIAN STATE MEDIA: INFINITYHEDGE

OIL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY GAIN IN DECADES: INFINITYHEDGE

U.S. crude soared 35.63% for the biggest weekly gain in the history of the futures contract dating back to 1983. Brent jumped about 28% for its biggest weekly gain since April 2020

Goldman Sachs: Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions for the Strait of Hormuz emerge by then

DUBAI-BOUND FLIGHTS HOLDING AFTER REPORTED DRONE STRIKE NEAR DUBAI AIRPORT - FLIGHTRADAR: INFINITYHEDGE

DUBAI AUTHORITIES CONFIRM FALL OF A SHRAPNEL FRAGMENT FROM INTERCEPTION

IRAN'S PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN SAYS INTERIM LEADERSHIP COUNCIL APPROVED THAT NO ATTACKS OR MISSILE STRIKES WILL BE CARRIED OUT AGAINST NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, UNLESS AN ATTACK AGAINST IRAN ORIGINATES FROM THOSE COUNTRIES

TRUMP: IRAN HAS APOLOGIZED AND SURRENDERED TO ITS MIDDLE EAST NEIGHBORS DUE TO RELENTLESS U.S. AND ISRAELI ATTACK

TRUMP: TODAY IRAN WILL BE HIT VERY HARD!

TRUMP SAYS US WILL CONSIDER TARGETING NEW AREAS, PEOPLE IN IRAN WAR

IDF HAS STARTED STRIKING IRANIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE: N12

ABOUT 30 TANKERS CONTAINING OIL IN THE TEHRAN AREA WERE HIT

SEVERAL OIL DEPOTS IN TEHRAN HAVE BEEN TARGETED

IN RESPONSE IRGC TARGETING OIL REFINERIES IN ISRAEL: INFINITYHEDGE

TRUMP ON TROOPS FOR IRAN NUCLEAR SITES: MAYBE AT SOME POINT

MUJTABA KHAMENEI BECOMES THE NEW SUPREME LEADER OF IRAN: INFINITYHEDGE

TRUMP BEFORE THIS ANNOUNCEMENT: KHAMENEI'S SON IS UNACCEPTABLE TO ME

STATE DEPT. SAID TO ORDER DIPLOMATS IN SAUDI ARABIA TO LEAVE UNDER MANDATORY DEPARTURE ORDERS - NYT: INFINITYHEDGE

MIDDLE EAST WAR UPDATE: INFINITYHEDGE

Israel, US, Iran are widening targets to non-military infrastructures

U.S. & Israel:
- burning ~$1b/day
- discussing deployment of forces on ground to seize Iran's uranium
- considering 3rd aircraft carrier to deploy in region
- targeted more sites including major israeli strikes on oil depots in iran

Iran:
- said it will continue its attacks on U.S. sites in neighboring countries
- targeted THAAD radars: 4 AN/TPY-2 damaged/destroyed per CNN: 2 in UAE, 1 in Saudi Arabia, 1 in Jordan; each costs ~$500M & described as "the heart of the THAAD battery"

Other:
- EU states warned of a global interceptor shortage
- All Major Media reports that investigations points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike that killed girls

Gulf Countries:
- intercepted more drones/missiles in multiple waves all week
- UAE President in rare public comment confirmed UAE is "in a time of war"
- unofficial reactions: This is Netanyahu's war...This isn’t the Gulf’s war & we shouldn’t fall for the Israeli bait the way the US did

Water infra precedent:
- US allegedly struck a freshwater desalination plant in Iran, cutting water supply to 30 villages; Iran's FM said that US set this precedent, not Iran
- ~100M people across the region dependent on desalination facilities

Hormuz:
- stil effectively closed, only Iran-linked sanctioned tankers crossing; Just 9 empty supertankers remain available in the Persian Gulf, once loaded, there is no buffer left; the next forced production shutdown phase could begin within days
- Iraq Oil Output Plunges About 60%; UAE, Kuwait Start Oil Output Cuts; Saudi Arabia raised prices
- U.S. steps to ease prices so far: (1) General license for Indian refiners to buy Russian oil at sea; (2) Bessent: "We may un-sanction other Russian oil; (3) $20B DFC reinsurance, experts say all three are "marginal" without reopening Hormuz; shipowners say crew safety, not insurance, is the real barrier; industry consensus: naval convoys may just "put a target on ships' backs"
- Ships declaring themselves Chinese to dodge attack; China has told major refiners to suspend exports of diesel & gasoline
- Japan reportedly considering tapping national reserves
- EU diesel futures up 50%+ in one week, biggest weekly move on record; jet fuel exceeded $200/barrel; LNG Asia Pacific shipping rates up 529%; Japan/Korea LNG up 106%

Inflation:
- GS: If oil prices increase by $10 & remain elevated for 3 months, US yoy headline CPI inflation would likely rise from 2.4% in Jan to 3% in May
- JPM: each 10% increase in oil..translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation & a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth

Outlook:
- GS: if Hormuz stays blocked through March, oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147 & $200 now described as "no longer unthinkable" by the FT: infinity-hedge

S&P Credit Scenarios:
- Low-moderate (~2 wks conflict): Brent $75–85/bbl; 30–70 bps risk premium; temporary disruption; no banking stress
- Moderate-high (~1mo): Brent $85–100/bbl; 15% of global crude + 20% of LNG trade affected; 100–150bps premium; capital outflows from regional banking system
- High credit impact (>1 month): Brent sustained above $100/bbl; storage challenges + production shutdowns amplify price further; 250–500bps risk premium; deposit outflows, asset quality stress, governments unable to backstop banks

Russia: oil & gas revenues had declined ~25% in the prior year, Hormuz closure has reversed this entirely. US issued a waiver allowing India to buy Russian crude, creating the extraordinary situation of a wartime US president subsidizing Russian energy revenues to manage a crisis his own war created: infinityhedge

OIL RISES ABOVE $100 A BARREL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2022: INFINITYHEDGE