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The Israelite Population in the Roman Province of Judaea during the 1st Century AD

https://www.academia.edu/145245296/

Abstract (click to expand):

This study investigates the proportion of the Israelite-descended population within the Roman province of Judaea during the 1st century AD. Using archaeological data, biblio-historical texts, and demographic modelling, the paper reconstructs long-term population trajectories from the Persian period (5th century BC) through the Hasmonean and early Roman periods. Population baselines are established for Yehud (12,000-30,000 in 432 BC), Samaria (43,000 in 432 BC), and Idumaea (100,000-200,000 in 177 BC), with growth projected under worldwide and regional rates (0.12%-0.21% per annum). The ethnic composition of Samaria before the Assyrian deportation campaigns is assessed through settlement archaeology, pig-avoidance patterns, architectural markers, and Biblio-historical testimonies. Some of these are also used to assess the Assyrian deportations and Hasmonean conversions. Results suggest that, of an estimated total provincial population of c. 552,000 by the mid-1st century AD, approximately 35,000-120,000 individuals (6.4-21.8%) retained at least partial Israelite ancestry, whilst as much as 95% of the population of Judaea may have adhered to Judaean customs and religion (being thus considered Judaean). Stricter definitions of "pure" descent yield a narrower range of 19,000-74,000 (3.5-13.4%). Biblical figures, if taken at face value, produce higher proportions (17.5-29.9%), though archaeological modelling, and Biblio-historical context, suggests that the Biblical figures for the people who returned to Jerusalem from exile in Babylonia, are merely snapshots that don't account for the later expulsions of foreigners, their offspring, and those who cohabited with them, under the regimes of Ezra and Nehemiah, as described later in the Biblical record. All the preceding figures are to some degree overestimates. This research highlights the gap between ethnic ancestry and religious-cultural identity in late Second Temple-and Roman-period Judaea. This has profound implications for the narratives surrounding the ethnogenesis and historical claims of various Jewish diaspora groups.

Manuscript may be subject to future updates.

@J_Oosthuizen

Hightlights:
• Archaeological estimates suggest 6.4-21.8% of the population of Roman-period Judaea retained at least partial Israelite ancestry.
• In spite of this, archaeological estimates suggest as much as 95% of the population of Judaea may have adhered to Judaean customs and religion.
• Archaeological estimates using stricter definitions of "pure" Israelite descent yield a narrower range of 3.5-13.4%.
• Archaeological estimates suggest over 50% of the population of Roman-period Judaea was of Idumaean origin.
• Key Conclusion: There is a profound gap between ethnic ancestry and religious-cultural identity in late Second Temple- and Roman-period Judaea, which has significant implications for narratives concerning Jewish diaspora groups.

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