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GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Flag Forms Ahead of BOE Talk


There is a likelihood that the pair will break out higher after the latest BOE rate decision. 

Bullish View

Bearish View

The GBP/USD price tilted lower ahead of the upcoming Bank of England (BOE) decision and after the relatively weak ADP jobs data. The pair is trading at 1.3885, which was slightly below the key resistance at 1.3958.

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Bank of England Decision Ahead

The BoE will conclude its two-day meeting on Thursday. With the hawkish Andrew Haldane gone, analysts expect that the bank will leave its interest rates unchanged at 0.10%. Also, with the number of Delta variant cases rising in the UK, the bank will likely have a cautious tone. As a result, the bank will likely leave its quantitative easing policy unchanged.

Most importantly, the bank will likely focus on the recent UK inflation data. In May, the bank signalled that the headline Consumer Price Index would rise above 2% briefly and then retreat. However, the headline inflation has overshot the bank’s target in the three straight months.

In June, the headline CPI rose to 2.5%, which was the highest level since 2018. Analysts expect that the rate will rise to about 4% as commodity prices and supply shortages remain. The GBP/USD price will likely rise if the bank delivers a relatively hawkish tone and vice versa.

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