Trade Idea for CAD/CHF Based on Technical Analysis

Overview

The CAD/CHF 4-hour chart showcases a detailed technical analysis with various significant levels, patterns, and channels marked. The chart includes harmonic patterns, major channel boundaries, and key reversal zones. This analysis suggests a strategic approach to trading based on the observed patterns and price action.

Key Observations

Harmonic Patterns:

Multiple harmonic patterns (marked A-B-C-D) indicate potential reversal points. These patterns provide clues about future price movements based on historical price action.

Channel Analysis:

The chart highlights a major descending channel with upper, middle, and lower bands. The price respects these channel boundaries, often reversing at these levels.
An inner downtrend band is also marked, providing a narrower focus within the broader channel.

Key Levels:

Year High at 0.69723 and several quarter highs (e.g., 0.68267, 0.67511) mark significant resistance points.
Quarter Low at 0.63259 acts as a strong support level.
Major Turn Levels and Choch Zones (Change of Character) indicate critical areas where the market's trend could shift.

Reversal Zones:

Bullish reversal zone around 0.64900 with multiple reasons for support, including major turn level, inner downtrend band, and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Bearish reversal zone around 0.66150, highlighted as a potential area for bearish price action.

Trade Setup Theory

Trend Analysis:

The overall trend within the major channel is bearish, as indicated by the downward sloping major channel upper and lower bands. This suggests looking for short opportunities at resistance levels within the channel.

Reversal Opportunities:

Bullish Reversal:

Consider looking for long opportunities around the 0.64900 area, where multiple indicators suggest strong support. This area aligns with the inner downtrend band's lower boundary, a major turn level, and Fibonacci retracement zones, making it a high-probability reversal zone.

Bearish Reversal:

Watch for short opportunities near the 0.66150 level, identified as a bearish reversal zone. This area is reinforced by a confluence of technical factors, including previous high points and the upper band of the inner downtrend channel.

Pattern Confirmation:

Look for price action signals confirming the reversal patterns at these key levels. This could include candlestick formations, divergence on momentum indicators, or a break and retest of significant support/resistance levels.

Risk Management:

As always, ensure proper risk management by setting appropriate stop-loss levels. These should be placed beyond the reversal zones to avoid being stopped out by temporary price spikes.
Consider the potential reward-to-risk ratio before entering the trade to ensure it meets your trading criteria.

Ref: HR-FX-GBPUSD-251020-01

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Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Tactical Bearish
Session: London
Date: 20 Oct 2025

Retail Summary:

GBP/USD continues to reject trendline resistance near 1.2740.
With markets cautious ahead of November’s UK Budget and the dollar holding firm, the pair looks set for a corrective pullback toward 1.26 in the short term.

Institutional Colour:

Sterling remains capped by descending resistance as traders price mild fiscal restraint and slower UK growth expectations.
Dollar demand stays defensive on steady US yields and cautious risk sentiment.
Relative yield support limits deeper losses, keeping this as a tactical short, not a structural bearish view.

Technical Setup:

We look for a slowdown in upside momentum and bearish candles forming below 1.2740 as confirmation to enter short.
A sustained bullish close above the trendline would invalidate the setup.
If the short triggers successfully, downside targets align with the 68 % retracement zone near 1.2632.

Event Watch (Consensus):

Date Event Forecast Prev Impact
23 Oct UK PMI (Composite) 50.2 50.4 Med
31 Oct BoE Rate Decision 5.25 % 5.25 % High
13 Nov UK Autumn Budget — — High
14 Nov US CPI YoY 3.2 % 3.5 % High

Key Levels:

Resistance 1.2740 | Support 1.2590 – 1.2620

🕒 Data as of 09:30 BST | For educational use only

Analyst: Alexander Holt – Senior FX Strategist (G10 Currencies)

As part of our broader USD-strength thematic view, our EURUSD short position initiated two weeks ago remains active. The position continues to align with our macro framework, supported by persistent yield divergence and cautious sentiment across the euro bloc.

Current Position Status:
• Direction: Short
• Notional Value: £86,876.52
• Current P/L (All): +£15,331.76 (+21.43%)
• 1D Change: -£57.79 (-0.07%)
• Last Price: 1.17

No additional entries should be made at this stage. This position remains under active monitoring, with ongoing reassessment of fundamental and technical parameters.

We will provide further updates as the trade progresses or if structural factors necessitate adjustment.

Here’s what the GBPUSD setup looks like now, you can compare the before and after.

Ref: HR-FX-USDJPY-251104-01

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Pair: USD/JPY
Bias: Tactical Bullish
Session: London
Date: 4 Nov 2025

Retail Summary:

USD/JPY continues to hold its ascending structure, with buyers defending trendline support near 152.60.
As long as this pivot holds, we expect a recovery toward 155.60, roughly 290 pips of upside potential.

Institutional Colour:

Dollar strength remains underpinned by resilient U.S. yields and safe-haven demand, while the yen struggles to attract inflows given ongoing Bank of Japan policy divergence.
The pair’s technical structure remains intact, a break below trendline support would invalidate the setup, but the bias stays higher while the 152.60 zone holds.

Technical Setup:

We look for buy confirmation on stabilisation near 152.60, with targets toward 155.60.
A clean daily close below the trendline would cancel the trade idea.

Event Watch (Consensus):

Date Event Forecast Prev Impact
6 Nov U.S. ISM Services PMI 53.0 53.6 Med
8 Nov Fed Chair Speech — — High
12 Nov Japan GDP QoQ −0.3 % −0.1 % High
14 Nov U.S. CPI YoY 3.2 % 3.5 % High

Key Levels:

Support 152.60 | Resistance 155.60

USDJPY UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oqIpsphN/

FREE SIGNAL

ASSET: USDCHF

DIRECTION: BUY

TP: 0.81704 (79 pips)

SL: 0.80580 (28 pips)

Charts closed. Coffee on.

Remember, balance is part of the process, clear mind = clear trades.

Enjoy your weekend traders.

We remain long on GBPCHF

When the markets open we will look to lock in profits and adjust SL to 1.05670 (Just below the current pivot)

Currently running at 79 pips

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CipOpk4e/

Got some absolute 🔥 setups coming your way!

Clean confluence, clear risk, and serious potential this week.

Do you want to receive notification of when to enter and exit this trade setup (stop loss included)? Tap here

DO NOT ENTER UNTIL CONFIRMATIONS HAVE BEEN MET!

We are awaiting confirmation before entry on NZDUSD, firstly we will wait for price to enter our safe zone level 0.56728 - 0.56810 (highlighted grey). Once a 4 hour candle has gone into our safe zone we will now wait for our first confirmation which will be for candle to retrace back down and close below 0.56617 once we have this confirmation we can make our short entry.

Once entered we will have a two step take profit to break-even structure placed for the trade. Our take profit 1 will be positioned at 0.56067 (50%) once hit we will have half the position closed out and remainder running with stop loss at break-even and take profit 2 at 0.55355. Completion of full trade will net you 4.44%.

NOTE OF INVALIDATION:

Do not enter trade if you see ANY 4 hour candle close above the safe zone limit 0.56811

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PgJnkYiT/

We are almost within the zone of play, still waiting for the last confirmation to begin making our NZDUSD short entry.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yltbg0fH/

Good afternoon team, jumping on the charts shortly, let’s get a trade together today! 🌴 ☀️

USDCAD: Short Setup Building

We're watching a strong base of structural support form off our LE level at 1.42133, and price is respecting it cleanly.

The trigger: a decisive 4H candle close above 1.42133 confirms buyers are defending the level. That's our green light for the push higher into supply.

The play: sell the rally into the 1.42698 region (aligned with the 118% extension), targeting ~100 pips to the downside. 🎯

The bias is clear. Let the level prove itself, then fade the move into resistance.

This is the setup. Members get the execution: exact entry, stop loss, take profit, and live updates as the trade plays out. If you want the full trade the moment we pull the trigger, message @halbergresearch and we’ll add you.

EURUSD: Long Setup Loading

Anyone else seeing this long? 👀

Price is ranging inside a clean 4H ascending channel, and bullish momentum is building at every low. Buyers keep stepping in earlier each time.
We are not chasing this. The plan is patience: we want to see a confirmed bounce from 1.13802. That reaction is our green light to go long.
The target: 1.14901, a move worth 0.96% and over 100 pips.

The macro backs the technicals. The ECB has turned hawkish with its first rate hike in three years and another potentially on the table this month, while soft US jobs data keeps pressure on the dollar. Rate momentum favours the euro.

This is the setup. Members get the execution: exact entry, stop loss, take profit, and live updates as the trade plays out. If you want the full trade the moment we pull the trigger, message @halbergresearch and we'll add you.

We are ready for the Asia Market open in a few hours. There’s a few setups in the pipeline already for next week.

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AUDUSD: Long Setup Building

Not ready for entry yet. We are still awaiting confirmations.

Price has been climbing a clean ascending channel since June, and we want to trade with it, not against it.

The plan: we are watching for a retracement into the 0.69389 - 0.69237 region. A reaction from that zone, inside the channel, is what puts this trade on. No confirmation, no entry.

The targets: profits split into two. First 0.69996, then 0.70818, a move worth over 1.1% from the entry zone.

The macro backs the long. The RBA has hiked three times this year and stayed hawkish on inflation, while soft US jobs data has markets pulling back Fed tightening bets. The rate differential leans in the Aussie's favour.

Be the first to get this trade notification when we are ready to enter with stop loss and take profit levels.

EURUSD update.

Confirmations were met and entry was taken as planned. Currently sitting at +56 pips and holding strong.

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