How would i play the JUP airdrop:

TLDR: Long wif and wen ( meme coins)

- at 40c and 1bn airdrop, thats a 400m stimulus onto the SOL ecosystem
-$JUP token is priced adaquately at 40c, i personally think fair value at ~50c.
Which will give its the same comp valuation as UNI/ETH
- at 50c they would raise about 50m


Price action when launch
- we can take precedent from $WEN
- $WEN pumped and stabilised around 50-60% from ATH
- this will be a good entry point to re-enter into JUP ( use JUP to set limit orders)

400m stimmy where will it go?
- assumed ~half claimed thats still a 100-200m cashflow
- 1) withdraw to CEX/USDC: unlikely due to cult/degen nature of SOL community, no binance listing yet too
- 2) sell to $SOL: maybe but it will not move prices
- 3) (LIKELY) sell to other memecoins: at 200m liquidity thats 5-6x of $WIF or $WEN token and should ~2x the coins, and etc

!) downside risk is VCs buying up the supply because they are underallocated to the JUP and SOL eco at large

back of envelop

WEN airdrop launch retraced -60% from ATH before resume up

Majors stuttering but sol up - should see some rotational plays to other L1s.
(Liquidity and profit taking)

In my prev life working in a fund, solunavax has always been a winning formula.

Actually sol and cfx up which means that some markets are still playing catch up

My bet is on L1.

Major rotations have been memes, AI, Gaming and L1.

AI and gaming catalyst ended this week, meme ran already. So L1s best bet

Funding rate flat now - good entries towards btc halving.

Eth might lag again given the low likelihood of any quick etf approval.

Relative valuations based on "% distance" from ATH is the best estimate on how far an alt can run/mean revert

The biggest joke about eth is there is no memes there

IMO, $BOME peaked. MMs and CEXs too anxious to squeeze out every cent out of retail meme hystericals.


Token listed waay too fast too early. Insiders cash out in huge profits. Tokens no time to form a community. And, poor rr for new entrants.

Gd meme though, even better next wk

Will see $ARB leading any rebound, since seller would have sold. And hedges unwounded.

Seeing some leading narratives for next 30 days:
- btc halving: btc eco
- HK conference: China narrative tokens
- Eigenlayer: restaking rwa

hope all is safu

bitcoin halving = perps acct halving

anyway, couple of things in can do in volatile markets:
- rotate to the fastest horse (meme coins, $WIF)
- rotate to tokens that "constantly" make holders money ( AI coins, $BNB, $PENDLE)

To find them:
- we focus on ETH and BTC crosses, the good ones would have hit range bottom ($SOL), and rebounded from some support
- follow your intuition, if some tokens feel super cheap to you they prob are

housekeeping:
- if your perps account super red, might be good to close and open the position again to reset the red: retain winning mindset and easier to plan your liquidation points/ position size.

if history is any guide - i think its silly not to be sufficiently deployed in alts post april