https://www.tradingview.com/x/raZ7Cpz6/

High Probability of the direction

This time I won't cover the technical analysis of bitcoin again. I will look forward for the technical analysis of the bitcoin dominance in the market because like what we've known that the bitcoin's price is highly correlated with the bitcoin dominance in the crypto space.

Following my previous analysis about this dominance, we can see that there are 2 important patterns to watch both on the macro and micro level. The first important pattern for the macro level is the form of the uptrend channel. The dominance is still trending inside this channel whatsoever although it's now trending slightly above the lower support trend line.

The 2nd pattern is the bearish flag pattern (yellow) of current dominance and I even called this pattern since the dominance was around 66.42%. Specifically for this pattern, the dominance has given us a brief confirmation of this pattern comes true.

The main idea that I want to say here is that the confirmation of bearish flag on micro level has given the confirmation that the bears are gaining a huge strength to potentially breaks the lower support trend line on macro level up trend channel. With current condition, there might be a high probability that the dominance will push lower to breaks the current support. And if this happens, we'll see the dominance to test the white support trend line again which is around 50% level.

The weaken of the bitcoin dominance simply means the weaken of the bitcoin's market capitalization comparing to the total market cap in this crypto industry. Meaning that there is possible huge money outflow to occur in the future. With a huge money outflow means there will be a thickening in supply which will drive the price down.

🎓#SpotTrade 🎓
🎓 $SOL / BTC - View Chart

🔸Signal Info: Solana
Rank: #2030 - Cap not calculated
Exchange: Binance (Trade)
Direction: LONG

🔸Analysis: Sol has only recently listen on Binance, and it is receiving quite the wave of volume that is commonly seen when a new project hits the scene. The asset us up with substantial gains for traders who were holding the coin before it arrived, but with this volatility and price discovery going on, there is a good chance that we can make some quick profit on this trade.

Initial targets are priced within the nearest two Fib bands. The final target skips one level to round off at about +50%. We are looking at the chart at the right time, we anticipate a swing and will load some orders while that takes place.

🔸Current Price: 9 950sats
❇️Entry: 9 700sats, 9 360sats
🎯Take Profit: 11 095sats, 12 360sats, 14 395sats
♦️Stop Limit: 8 815sats (-7.42%)

PS - Like our work on Tradingview

🎓#SpotTrade 🎓
🎓 $OGN / BTC - View Chart

🔸Signal Info: Origin Protocol
Rank: #335
Exchange: Binance (Trade)
Direction: LONG

🔸Analysis: The very volatile OGN token is sitting right above an irresistible buy entry zone. The setup has been laddered down to the horizontal support, and the stop sits just inside the 10% loss threshold. The PXI indicator has a crossover inbound.

🔸Current Price: 3 140sats
❇️Entry: 3 165sats, 2 975sats
🎯Take Profit: 3 770sats, 4 560sats, Open
♦️Stop Limit: 2 795sats (-9.15%)

PS - Like our work on Tradingview

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4Zt4jMth/

The Hardest decision, Divergence and the delay of the bear

Hello all, I want to give the update of current bitcoin's condition especially from the intraday perspective. In this analysis I want to give more highlight on the 4 hours chart which showed us a crucial sign.

Talking about the crucial factor that may affect the price of the bitcoin, the most important factor on this 4 hours chart that is just the basic of the chart is that we haven't seen any sign of the bearish divergence especially in the RSI which I use this indicator as a very important indicator to show me the first ever sign at the upcoming potential bearish moves. Here we can see, if we compare the price with the RSI moves, we haven't seen any act of higher high on the price and lower high on the RSI. We may see this in the upcoming moves.

The 2nd most important thing that the yellow region may become the strong support zone during this scenario. The range of this yellow region may between the $6800 -$6600 region. A lot of price action has occured around this area in the last 1 month. Beside, there might be an action of breaking out of the white resistance trend line at current condition.

If those condition above is true, we might see the delay of bearish moves with the price might have a test toward the next resistance area before it continue the downside movement. For short term, I can see a potential moves higher to the white region which is the golden pocket zone but for the longer term, I'm still on my current bearish bias with potential target toward $3000 or lower.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/97oqajTW/

#XBTUSD Nothing has changed so far, still same Targets for me.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bYzMbKGk/

#XBTUSD First Target cleared at $7150, Hold for more, New SL at $7050 Now. Price 1.7% Up from Entry thats 17% on 10x 👍🏻

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j3fcrLLr/

#XBTUSD Second Target Cleared at $7250, with 26% ROE, 12 mins in hourly close, if it close above $7163.00 things might go extra ordinary for Bulls, However a 4Hr Close or Daily Candle close above $7163.00 will be a good confirmation. 👍🏻

https://www.tradingview.com/x/t6U5g7Hu/

Happy Sunday fellas! Just want to give a quick review of bitcoin in the 1 week time frame. The price is currently entering again the white zone as the resistance zone based on the weekly and looking at current momentum on the lower time frame (which I've mentioned on the previous post), There is still big possibility for the price to continue push higher. We can see that the yellow region is the area of liquidation where usually a lot of short positions getting liquidated to fake out the early short position.

1. For long term, waiting for the price to touches this yellow region to enter the next short position.
2. For short term, Still holding long position as mentioned above with the target of the golden pocket zone and with the trailing stop has been activated.

A quick flip from long to short is expected when the price touches the yellow region

A little sneak peak into the trend lines I'm looking at right now.

🎓#SpotTrade 🎓
🎓 $WRX / BTC - View Chart

🔸Signal Info: WazirX
Rank: #161
Exchange: Binance (Trade)
Direction: LONG

🔸Analysis: The very volatile WRX token Has just broken out of this clean symmetrical wedge pattern. The retest on the up trending line is taking place as we speak, and with any luck we can get our entry filled on at a good price.

The stop on this trade is set rather tight, while initial profit triggers are set to form a flat top wedge which could be the next formation we trade within before another breakout will be required.

🔸Current Price: 1 982sats
❇️Entry: 1 938sats
🎯Take Profit: 2145sats, 2630sats, Open
♦️Stop Limit: 1 845sats (-4.78%)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2ErgTpyL/

Assuming parallel channel and the key levels

Happy Monday and happy new week. Welcome to the first day of the next beautiful week hopefully. Let's come back to the technical analysis of bitcoin again.

Looking at the chart applied, the price of bitcoin has formed a parallel channel. Because of this parallel channel, there are some levels that may we consider as the key levels for bitcoin.

1. The first key level is at current level which price are trending at. Like what I've always anticipated on some of previous analysis, current level is having an alignment with the previous price action, median line of the channel, golden pocket and the 1000 moving average on daily time frame. With all of this confluence factors, I will expect a liquidation area of yellow will be touched during a potential choppy condition.
2. The 2nd key level is at $9121 region which is the next area of resistance if the price can breaks through current resistance level. This area however is the area of confluence between the previous price action and the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Beside, there is high probability of this level will have an alignment with the upper line of the channel when the price has the continuation trend toward this region.
3. The 3rd key level is at around $5200 - $4900 region as the previous candle's body of the swing low candle. This area however is the area of interest of the swing trader which is waiting for opening their long position. If the price gets a rejection at current area of resistance, I do believe that the price will have a leg down to at least this area of support or even lower to the $4000 region which could have an alignment with the lower line of the channel.

These are the key levels that I will anticipate for now. I'm still staying on my current bias which is potentially bullish on a short term but still feel pessimistic for longer term. That's why I'm more leaning toward the downside for long term. Short term, we still can see a push toward the liquidation zone.

Trading & Investing Tips

There are 2 extreme forces in the crypto market, those that are thinking Bitcoin is going to a new all-time high in a matter of weeks/months and those that are calling Bitcoin at new $1-2k.

When you state your opinion that your either bullish or bearish, people associate you with one of these two groups.

Very few people actually understand that there are traders which define bullishness and bearishness in a totally different way.

If you hold Bitcoin, you’re bullish on it as an investment and timeframe is few years.

Being bullish in the long term doesn’t mean you can short it and make a profit on a $200 down move.

If you want to trade crypto, distinguish being longterm bullish from actual setups you’re trading.

The reason I am talking this is the upcoming halving. Most people are longing on short term timeframes without the actual setup saying that they’re bullish because of halving.

Right?

There’s no correlation between halving and short term price action.

Halving is positive for investors because it decreases selling pressure over months and years and makes Bitcoin more scarce.

It can’t prevent Bitcoin from dropping 5% - 8% or 12% in a single daily candle.

Be very cautious about what you’re doing before and after halving. Whales can easily take advantage of immaturity that’s currently in the crypto market and profit on some nice 10% crash while all of you take halving for reason for being long.

No matter if it’s halving, coronavirus pandemic, Third World War, your trading decisions have to be based on the trade setups.

Define the direction, find where you can enter with reasonably tight stop loss and that’s it. Wait for the outcome that will either be a win or loss.

Huge fundamental events should be a trigger for your investing strategies.

The first time since 2017, I sold my Bitcoin at $8k before coronavirus hit the news. Actually, it was the day before the big market crash.

Did I buy the bottom?

Not even close but I bought 3 days after once the capitulation was over.

That wasn’t a trade but a decision based on my investing strategy. First time for a while, I felt scared so I decided to take some risk of from my crypto portfolio and sell half of it until I feel comfortable holding it again.

I suggest the same thing to you.

If halving is really bullish, then find the way to put more fiat in Bitcoin but your trades should be the product of profitable market setups, not positive or negative market events.

If we see a 10-12% market crash just before or after halving, the reason is stated here. Too many immature longs in the market longing not even knowing the actual reason for it.

So be cautious and trade the setups that can give you 2-3 reward of the risk you’re putting in. If you can’t get that setup, simply wait for it and don’t FOMO in!

Absolutely delighted to see it tap the first target. Heading lower boys and girls

Patience always pays off, nothing fancy, simple charts, extraordinary profits!

*Explained: What is WTI crude and why is it falling faster than Brent crude?*

Oil markets witnessed a historic moment on Monday when WTI crude for May delivery fell more than 100 percent, settling at around -$37/bbl indicating that producers would have to pay traders to take oil off them.

Difference between Brent and WTI Crude

WTI or Western Texas Intermediate is extracted from oil fields in the United States. It is primarily extracted in Texas, Louisiana and North Dakota and is then transported via pipeline to Cushing, Oklahoma for delivery. Cushing was a major spot for oil for decades, and has been the delivery spot for contracts and price settlements for WTI for more than 30 years. It contains 0.24% of sulfur. WTI futures contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)

Brent crude is extracted from oil fields in the North Sea. ‘Brent Crude’ refers to a blend of four crude oils - Brent, Forties, Osberg, and Ekofisk which together are known as BFOE. It contains 0.37% of sulfur. Brent futures contracts are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London.

Why did WTI futures fall so much?

Just like any other commodities, WTI has future contracts expiring every month. For WTI, the current month expiry was on April 21. Also, remember these contracts have to be settled physically.

This means the buyer of a futures contract will have to take delivery of physical crude, if he is still holding the contract at expiry. This delivery is to be taken at Cushing. There are also speculators who have not contracted for storage of the incoming crude. In a usual scenario, they would have easily sold the contract in the market.

However, considering the times we are in, there were no buyers for this contract due to sharp fall in oil demand in the US and also globally. Refiners do not have enough capacity to the store the crude, airlines and transport is shut. The storage at Cushing is nearly full and even transportation through pipeline does not look like a feasible option due to lack of demand. Hence, anyone who cannot take the actual delivery will sell it at whatever price they are getting it, even If it is negative.

Why does Brent not fall so much?

Brent futures expire on April 30. The sell off seen in WTI is not happening in Brent simply because Brent crude contracts settle in cash. Thus, any speculator can take them to their expiry without being forced to sell at any price, a “luxury” not available in WTI crude futures. Another reason is that Brent Brent essentially draws its oil from more than a dozen oil fields located in the North Sea. It is close to water and hence can be stored in tankers, while WTI, because of its landlocked nature, is quite far from the nearest water body. So transportation of WTI crude is an issue, more so in these times.

Why is Brent preferred over WTI?

WTI usually trades at discount to brent. WTI is the benchmark for oil prices in the US, while the rest of the world - and nearly two-thirds of all oil contracts traded - are on Brent. This makes Brent the global benchmark. The preference for Brent crude today stems from the fact that it may be a better indicator of global oil prices

How could the OIL drop impact the other markets?

What we saw yesterday is something we never witnessed before, an insane drop of OIL futures to negative -$37 which is more than 300%.

The first thing that we can learn from it is that Bitcoin is definitely not the most volatile asset. If SEC still doesn't approve Bitcoin ETF while keeping OIL's, there's definitely another reason for not doing that.

The only question is, how many banks were long on OIL. A few banks being on the wrong side of the trade when it came to US mortgage-backed securities in 2008 triggered a severe global financial crisis.

This could trigger a world bank crisis bigger than 2008 especially because this is not only the US but the whole world.

When dozens of investment banks around the world start filing bankruptcy who is going to want to keep their savings in a bank especially when bail-ins are now legal?

I'm very curious about who was on the wrong side of yesterday's drop because the loss would be huge.

Don't be one of these who will say, the global financial system is crashing, long Bitcoin. Yes, all these factors are positive for Bitcoin in the long term but the current fear can easily negatively impact the price of Bitcoin and cause 5-10-15% drop in the market.

Distinguish trading and investing decisions when looking at fundamentals.

Whatever happens, everything they were saying about Bitcoin is happening to their favorable assets.

Keep holding Bitcoin!

🎓#Commodities 🎓
🎓 $CL1! / USD - View Chart

🔸Signal Info: Light Crude Oil Futures
Exchange: NYMEX
Direction: Short

🔸Analysis: The price on oil is experiencing historical levels of volatility. What we are looking at here is a 30 minute chart with a fib scale drawing across the daily high and low. From $22.58 at the open down to 6.50 at the low.

The price spent less than 5 minutes down at that level before bouncing back up the the inner channel, and finding support at the 0.382 fib level.

We are going to attempt a short position at the confluence with the falling channel and the 0.5fib line.

The opportunities for gains and losses here are absolutely massive. This is however ultra levels of risk, and these positions should get monitored very closely. Even a 1% stop loss could be an excessive when trading at x50 or x100 leverage. Be careful and watch for confirmations and trends on the lower time frames.

🔸Current Price: $13.12
⬇️Short Entry: $14.95
🎯Take Profit: $13.11, $11.56
♦️Stop Limit: N/A

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pmAlnBS0/

MACD ticking down, Down for everything!

Hello all, here we go again with the bitcoin update for the daily time frame. Let's get into it!

The most important thing is that the price has already shown a rejection toward the crucial area here. This crucial area has been anticipated in the previous post. The median trend line of the channel and 1000 moving average are acting as a strong resistance whatsoever. Yesterday's drop from the $7300 to the low of $6800 is showing us the indication of the bears are losing a lot of strength.

The 2nd most important thing that we can see is that the MACD histogram has shown us a ticking down to near the 0 level. Once we see any sign of the histogram to tick below this 0 level which means entering the negative area, we might expect a further drop toward the next support area around $5000 region.

Looking at the above facts, we can conclude that there are a big possibility of the bears to attack the price to even lower region. The $5000 - Interim swing low will become the point of interest of most swing trader to enter their long position. But for now, it will be safer to accumulate your short position.

Things seem to be moving according to the plan, the possibility of a small movement towards $7,000 is not eliminated. We strongly recommend using a small portion of your portfolio and leverage under 20X with the appropriate stops

These are my current biases on bitcoin.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wziqtHvN/