It finally feels like we’ve moved past the phase of local liquidity alignment — and that’s usually the moment when risk assets and alts wake up. So what caught our attention first? A mix of macro signals, equities, and crypto flows.

🏛 Macro: the shift is already happening

Everyone’s debating whether the Fed will cut in December. During the shutdown markets were fully pricing in easing — but right after, Fed officials flipped hawkish again, triggering a sharp selloff.
Yet within a month expectations for easing back to 3.5–3.75% recovered, and dip-buying returned.

Reverse Repo has collapsed to multi-year lows since September — banks are no longer parking spare liquidity at the Fed. The mechanism for draining liquidity is basically broken. Money is tight.

Labor market? Stabilizing. November NFP came in strong: +119K vs +53K expected, unemployment barely moved (4.4% vs 4.3%). That’s a positive bullish direction.

📈 Equities: early sparks

After portfolio rebalancing and forced stock cashout by managers, big tech is still flexing.

NVIDIA beat expectations for Q4 FY2025 with 93% YoY growth in data-center segment, pushing revenue +3.8% and EPS +4%. Even with a temporary bear market, AI demand isn’t slowing.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which historically move in sync, have been climbing steadily since Nov 28 (+0.54% / +0.65% today). Green light at the end of the tunnel.

🔥 Crypto: Solana leads the flow

Since the Solana ETF launch, we’ve barely seen any outflows. Net inflows have hit $619M — about 1% of SOL’s $80B market cap — all since Oct 28.

Two clear patterns compared with the price movement:
▪️Buyers accelerate as SOL resumes its uptrend.
▪️Market cooling with strong price drops -> Institutions stay patient on big dips, waiting for perfect entries.

Daily active Solana addresses are climbing too — 2–2.5M on average.
Meanwhile, the memecoin machine keeps printing: 5+ new Solana meme tokens launched every minute — most of them with zero fundamentals.

But the key: Solana’s infrastructure has evolved. Creating a token today is cheap like dirt🫠 and instant, so retail prefers launching its own contracts rather than gambling on someone else’s and to be a naked pro with a skill gap in 2-3 years. This shift is driving actual activity — not just chasing the next 100x hype coin.

📉 Dollar weakening ahead?

We expect further DXY softening. No major macro data is coming before the next Fed meeting — making the bullish scenario for the next few months increasingly likely.