📊 Bitcoin Market Cycle Update
Current ROI:
Here's how #Bitcoin’s ROI since cycle low compares to the last two cycles so far:
🔸 2015-2018: 5.90x
🔸 2018-2022: 10.47x
🔸 2022+ (current): 5.98x
The current cycle is 26.94% below the average ROI of the last two cycles (8.18x), highlighting the challenges of sustaining exponential growth as liquidity needs increase.
Bull Market Volatility:
Here’s how this bull market’s corrections compare to the previous cycles:
Average Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -7.68%
🔹 Overall: -16.24%
Max Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -26.25%
🔹 Overall: -71.15% (2011-2013)
This cycle stands out as the least volatile, with the mildest corrections compared to its predecessors.
Bitcoin’s evolution continues, balancing reduced volatility with steady growth as the market matures and becomes more institutionalized. 📈
Current ROI:
Here's how #Bitcoin’s ROI since cycle low compares to the last two cycles so far:
🔸 2015-2018: 5.90x
🔸 2018-2022: 10.47x
🔸 2022+ (current): 5.98x
The current cycle is 26.94% below the average ROI of the last two cycles (8.18x), highlighting the challenges of sustaining exponential growth as liquidity needs increase.
Bull Market Volatility:
Here’s how this bull market’s corrections compare to the previous cycles:
Average Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -7.68%
🔹 Overall: -16.24%
Max Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -26.25%
🔹 Overall: -71.15% (2011-2013)
This cycle stands out as the least volatile, with the mildest corrections compared to its predecessors.
Bitcoin’s evolution continues, balancing reduced volatility with steady growth as the market matures and becomes more institutionalized. 📈
The Week On-Chain 50, 2024
Bitcoin’s journey from the Genesis Block to $100k per BTC is a historic moment and a new high watermark in adoption. With 19.8M BTC mined, $131T in transfer volume processed, and 1.12B transactions, the $100k price milestone is yet another sign of Bitcoin's resilience.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin price crossed the $100k mark for the first time on 5 December, after 5,256 trading days, and hitting a market cap briefly exceeding $2 Trillion.
- Miners have earned a cumulative $71.49 Billion since inception, reflecting the network's robust security and economic incentives.
- The network has processed a total of 1.12 Billion transactions and settled $131.25 Trillion in transfer volume, with entity-adjusted figures providing an even clearer view of genuine economic activity.
- A breakdown of supply held by various cohorts highlights a broad distribution of Bitcoin ownership, ranging from retail investors to institutional-scale holders.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin’s journey from the Genesis Block to $100k per BTC is a historic moment and a new high watermark in adoption. With 19.8M BTC mined, $131T in transfer volume processed, and 1.12B transactions, the $100k price milestone is yet another sign of Bitcoin's resilience.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin price crossed the $100k mark for the first time on 5 December, after 5,256 trading days, and hitting a market cap briefly exceeding $2 Trillion.
- Miners have earned a cumulative $71.49 Billion since inception, reflecting the network's robust security and economic incentives.
- The network has processed a total of 1.12 Billion transactions and settled $131.25 Trillion in transfer volume, with entity-adjusted figures providing an even clearer view of genuine economic activity.
- A breakdown of supply held by various cohorts highlights a broad distribution of Bitcoin ownership, ranging from retail investors to institutional-scale holders.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin Spending Power Law: A New Predictable Framework
Glassnode's new research reveals how Bitcoin holder behavior follows a power-law decay, offering a groundbreaking perspective on coin age and spending probabilities.
Executive Summary
- Spending probability drops by a factor of 10 for every tenfold increase in coin age, creating a measurable and predictable pattern.
- Coins held for over 3-4 years rarely move, signaling either strong conviction or potential loss.
- A simple heuristic predicts with 98% accuracy that coins younger than 7 days will move, providing actionable short-term insights.
This framework enables investors to segment holders into behavior-driven cohorts and track market sentiment with greater precision.
Read more in the full research report here.
Glassnode's new research reveals how Bitcoin holder behavior follows a power-law decay, offering a groundbreaking perspective on coin age and spending probabilities.
Executive Summary
- Spending probability drops by a factor of 10 for every tenfold increase in coin age, creating a measurable and predictable pattern.
- Coins held for over 3-4 years rarely move, signaling either strong conviction or potential loss.
- A simple heuristic predicts with 98% accuracy that coins younger than 7 days will move, providing actionable short-term insights.
This framework enables investors to segment holders into behavior-driven cohorts and track market sentiment with greater precision.
Read more in the full research report here.
Looking at price performance, SOL outpaced both ETH and BTC for most of Q4 2024. However, since early December, ETH has taken the lead, outperforming the other two assets.
30-day performance:
ETH: +26.96%
BTC: +17.49%
SOL: +1.61%
A clear shift in momentum. 📊 https://glassno.de/4ggZUiw
Analyzing the weekly Realized Cap—a proxy for capital flow—SOL expanded faster than BTC and ETH until early December (over +5%).
Since then, BTC has taken the lead, with ETH outpacing SOL:
BTC: +1.89%
SOL: +1.11%
ETH: +1.03%
Capital flows and price trends have shifted. The tides have turned.
📊: https://glassno.de/4fkLyMz
30-day performance:
ETH: +26.96%
BTC: +17.49%
SOL: +1.61%
A clear shift in momentum. 📊 https://glassno.de/4ggZUiw
Analyzing the weekly Realized Cap—a proxy for capital flow—SOL expanded faster than BTC and ETH until early December (over +5%).
Since then, BTC has taken the lead, with ETH outpacing SOL:
BTC: +1.89%
SOL: +1.11%
ETH: +1.03%
Capital flows and price trends have shifted. The tides have turned.
📊: https://glassno.de/4fkLyMz
Solana vs Ethereum: Probing into the Demand Side
We can gauge demand-side momentum by tracking capital rotation via new investor activity, also known as Hot Realized Cap. The Hot Realized Cap measures the capital held by accounts active in the last 7 days.
1/ Solana Hot Realized Cap
For Solana, the positive market momentum coincided with a surge in its Hot Realized Cap starting in early October 2023.
📊: https://glassno.de/3BwmMvk
2/ Ethereum Hot Realized Cap
Unlike Solana, Ethereum's Hot Realized Cap did not see a significant spike off the 2022-2023 bear market floor. This demonstrates how demand for Solana outpaced Ethereum for most of 2024.
📊: https://glassno.de/3VHfhbE
3/ Demand Shift: SOL vs ETH
However, the recent period of ETH outperforming SOL has coincided with a surge in ETH's Hot Realized Cap starting in early November 2024.
New demand is clearly returning to ETH.
📊: https://glassno.de/49Lm8qy
We can gauge demand-side momentum by tracking capital rotation via new investor activity, also known as Hot Realized Cap. The Hot Realized Cap measures the capital held by accounts active in the last 7 days.
1/ Solana Hot Realized Cap
For Solana, the positive market momentum coincided with a surge in its Hot Realized Cap starting in early October 2023.
📊: https://glassno.de/3BwmMvk
2/ Ethereum Hot Realized Cap
Unlike Solana, Ethereum's Hot Realized Cap did not see a significant spike off the 2022-2023 bear market floor. This demonstrates how demand for Solana outpaced Ethereum for most of 2024.
📊: https://glassno.de/3VHfhbE
3/ Demand Shift: SOL vs ETH
However, the recent period of ETH outperforming SOL has coincided with a surge in ETH's Hot Realized Cap starting in early November 2024.
New demand is clearly returning to ETH.
📊: https://glassno.de/49Lm8qy
The Week On-Chain 51, 2024
Bitcoin continues trading above the psychologically important $100k price level, supported by a consistent inflow of capital. Long-Term Holders are capitalizing on this liquidity, taking the opportunity to distribute supply at scale, setting a new ATH in profit realized of $2.1B.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s price trajectory shows striking similarities across cycles despite vastly different market scales and dynamics.
- With price trading above $100k for weeks, Long-Term Holders are distributing supply, setting a new ATH in realized profit of $2.1B.
- Most profit-taking comes from coins aged 6m-12m, while older coins remain relatively dormant.
- New investors now hold a larger share of network wealth, reflecting robust demand and a shift away from longer-term HODLers.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin continues trading above the psychologically important $100k price level, supported by a consistent inflow of capital. Long-Term Holders are capitalizing on this liquidity, taking the opportunity to distribute supply at scale, setting a new ATH in profit realized of $2.1B.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s price trajectory shows striking similarities across cycles despite vastly different market scales and dynamics.
- With price trading above $100k for weeks, Long-Term Holders are distributing supply, setting a new ATH in realized profit of $2.1B.
- Most profit-taking comes from coins aged 6m-12m, while older coins remain relatively dormant.
- New investors now hold a larger share of network wealth, reflecting robust demand and a shift away from longer-term HODLers.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The proportion of Bitcoin wealth held within recently moved supply has started to increase meaningfully in recent months.
This occurs as coins held by Long-Term Holders are distributed to new investors, which in turn highlights a surge in new demand-side activity.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
glassno.de/41GJwn8
This occurs as coins held by Long-Term Holders are distributed to new investors, which in turn highlights a surge in new demand-side activity.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
glassno.de/41GJwn8
Get an x-ray view of profitability and profit-taking across key assets with the Profitability Map. Track assets with increasing 🔴 or declining 🟢 profitability to anticipate market sentiment shifts before price moves.
📈 DEXE remains highly profitable (1.49), with slowing profit-taking momentum (0.51) and a heating trend. A realized profit spike between Dec 2-9 was followed by modest activity, suggesting holders see potential value.
📉 YFII is strongly cooling, with both profitability and realized profits declining, reflecting reduced cash-out opportunities amid slowing momentum.
Typically a Professional plan dashboard, it's now available to Advanced plan users until March 31, 2025. Explore: https://glassno.de/map
📈 DEXE remains highly profitable (1.49), with slowing profit-taking momentum (0.51) and a heating trend. A realized profit spike between Dec 2-9 was followed by modest activity, suggesting holders see potential value.
📉 YFII is strongly cooling, with both profitability and realized profits declining, reflecting reduced cash-out opportunities amid slowing momentum.
Typically a Professional plan dashboard, it's now available to Advanced plan users until March 31, 2025. Explore: https://glassno.de/map
The last two years have been remarkable for Solana: a staggering price appreciation of +2,143%, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum on 344 out of 727 trading days since the FTX fall.
In our latest analysis, we utilize Glassnode’s new breakdown metrics for Solana to inspect and understand the underlying capital flows behind the dramatic ascent. Find out more: https://glassno.de/3Dqm9E9
We've enhanced our latest release of Solana to provide even better analytics: advanced metrics are live! Explore over 80 SOL metrics in Studio: https://glassno.de/SOL
In our latest analysis, we utilize Glassnode’s new breakdown metrics for Solana to inspect and understand the underlying capital flows behind the dramatic ascent. Find out more: https://glassno.de/3Dqm9E9
We've enhanced our latest release of Solana to provide even better analytics: advanced metrics are live! Explore over 80 SOL metrics in Studio: https://glassno.de/SOL
We observe that Solana has consistently maintained a positive net capital inflow since early September 2023, with only minor outflows during this period.
This sustained influx of liquidity has assisted in stimulating growth and price appreciation, achieving a remarkable peak inflow of $776M of new capital per day.
Discover more in our latest Solana research report👇
glassno.de/3Dqm9E9
This sustained influx of liquidity has assisted in stimulating growth and price appreciation, achieving a remarkable peak inflow of $776M of new capital per day.
Discover more in our latest Solana research report👇
glassno.de/3Dqm9E9
Capital Momentum: BTC vs ETH vs SOL
The chart below shows the monthly percent change in Realized Cap for Bitcoin (BTC),Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).
This metric acts as an indicator of the rate and direction of capital inflows or outflows for these assets.
Diminishing Momentum on Solana 📉
During the recent market downtrend, the monthly rate of change in Realized Cap for SOL has plunged below both BTC and ETH.
This indicates a faster decline in momentum for Solana compared to the other two assets.
Current monthly Realized Cap Change (%/30D):
• BTC: +10.87%
• ETH: +5.43%
• SOL: +2.19%
📊 https://glassno.de/49WGptl
The chart below shows the monthly percent change in Realized Cap for Bitcoin (BTC),Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).
This metric acts as an indicator of the rate and direction of capital inflows or outflows for these assets.
Diminishing Momentum on Solana 📉
During the recent market downtrend, the monthly rate of change in Realized Cap for SOL has plunged below both BTC and ETH.
This indicates a faster decline in momentum for Solana compared to the other two assets.
Current monthly Realized Cap Change (%/30D):
• BTC: +10.87%
• ETH: +5.43%
• SOL: +2.19%
📊 https://glassno.de/49WGptl
Despite the decline in Bitcoin price, the average Short-Term Holder continues to hold an unrealized profit (paper gain) of +7.9%.
Currently, their aggregate cost-basis resides at a value of $86.8k, marking this as a key region of interest for local price momentum.
For further information regarding the capital flows of the Short-Term Holder cohort, visit our Dashboard below👇
glassno.de/4gWoyVC
Currently, their aggregate cost-basis resides at a value of $86.8k, marking this as a key region of interest for local price momentum.
For further information regarding the capital flows of the Short-Term Holder cohort, visit our Dashboard below👇
glassno.de/4gWoyVC
1/ Cost Basis Distribution (CBD): A Key Insight for Investors
CBD measures the total Bitcoin supply held by addresses with an average cost basis within specific price ranges.
Key Observations:
- A dense cluster of supply exists between $88.1K-$103K.
- Since mid-December, we've been hovering near the lower band ($88.1K).
$98K buyers remain notably resilient despite market fluctuations.
- This region acts as a critical zone of interest for price action.
📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a
2/ The Air Gap: $70K-$88.1K
Above the dense cluster lies an "Air Gap" between $70K-$88.1K – an area with significantly lower supply concentration.
📉 Implication:
If the market enters a prolonged price contraction phase, this zone could act as a bottom discovery region, attracting new buyers eager to accumulate Bitcoin at a relative discount.
Keep a close eye on these levels—they hold the key to market resilience or deeper corrections.
📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a
CBD measures the total Bitcoin supply held by addresses with an average cost basis within specific price ranges.
Key Observations:
- A dense cluster of supply exists between $88.1K-$103K.
- Since mid-December, we've been hovering near the lower band ($88.1K).
$98K buyers remain notably resilient despite market fluctuations.
- This region acts as a critical zone of interest for price action.
📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a
2/ The Air Gap: $70K-$88.1K
Above the dense cluster lies an "Air Gap" between $70K-$88.1K – an area with significantly lower supply concentration.
📉 Implication:
If the market enters a prolonged price contraction phase, this zone could act as a bottom discovery region, attracting new buyers eager to accumulate Bitcoin at a relative discount.
Keep a close eye on these levels—they hold the key to market resilience or deeper corrections.
📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a