📢 Fresh from Glassnode: This week's Chart of the Week looks for insights in the the Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit metric. Get a grip on the sentiment of recent market entrants and understand the potential market shifts. How can you hedge yourself against potential losses? Equip yourself with knowledge that will help you navigate the Bitcoin market in the days and weeks to come. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZ8CszH7gtA
YouTube
Chart of the Week: Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit
Chart of the week provides bitesize insights into the market via different charts each week. In this edition, we turn our focus to the short-term holder percent supply in profit metric.
📊 STH Percent Supply In Profit: https://glassno.de/3EHy9P4
🔗 The Week…
📊 STH Percent Supply In Profit: https://glassno.de/3EHy9P4
🔗 The Week…
September 15, 2023
With almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their position, sentiment has shifted towards the negative. In this report, we explore several measures to track investor sentiment. We develop indicators which assess divergences between the market and observed investor behavior.
Executive Summary
We review the market position relative to two on-chain pricing models, both of which are intersected during past cycle lows, and in the March 2020 sell-off.
Patterns of accumulation and distribution tend to align with local highs and lows, and we demonstrate how this plays out in on-chain data.
A super-majority of Short-Term Holders are now underwater on their position, with a new indicator suggesting negative sentiment dominates this cohort at present.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletter and our latest Video Report.
Executive Summary
We review the market position relative to two on-chain pricing models, both of which are intersected during past cycle lows, and in the March 2020 sell-off.
Patterns of accumulation and distribution tend to align with local highs and lows, and we demonstrate how this plays out in on-chain data.
A super-majority of Short-Term Holders are now underwater on their position, with a new indicator suggesting negative sentiment dominates this cohort at present.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletter and our latest Video Report.
September 18, 2023
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Stablecoin Dominance:
- Tether (USDT) is regaining its market dominance, closely approaching its previous peak levels. This resurgence indicates its escalating importance, especially in markets outside the United States.
- A noteworthy increase in USD Coin's (USDC) outflows has been observed in 2023, a trend likely driven by U.S. capital migrating toward markets offering higher interest rates.
- Pertinent to the overall stablecoin environment, a net outflow is evident across the board, suggesting a prevailing trend of stablecoin redemptions in the market.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbjMKR7rzf0
- Tether (USDT) is regaining its market dominance, closely approaching its previous peak levels. This resurgence indicates its escalating importance, especially in markets outside the United States.
- A noteworthy increase in USD Coin's (USDC) outflows has been observed in 2023, a trend likely driven by U.S. capital migrating toward markets offering higher interest rates.
- Pertinent to the overall stablecoin environment, a net outflow is evident across the board, suggesting a prevailing trend of stablecoin redemptions in the market.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbjMKR7rzf0
YouTube
The Fall of Binance USD and the Rise of Tether: A 2023 Stablecoin Analysis - Glassnode Clips
In this Glassnode Clips, we explore the shifts in stablecoin dominance in 2023, focusing on Tether's rebound and USD Coin's decline. We'll look at key metrics like overall supply and capital flows to understand these changes, and discuss their implications…
September 19, 2023
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on RHODL Ratio:
- High RHODL values indicate that a significant proportion of the Bitcoin supply is being held in coins that have recently moved, illustrating a tendency towards short-term holding, whereas low values are indicative of predominant long-term holding.
- The RHODL Ratio is currently near its two-year median, which has traditionally been crucial in indicating market transitions; the lack of a clear break in either direction is emphasizing the current state of high market indecision.
- The RHODL Ratio has consistently served as a reliable indicator in identifying key market trends and shifts, positioning it as an essential tool for comprehensive market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUt0XkuHyGs
- High RHODL values indicate that a significant proportion of the Bitcoin supply is being held in coins that have recently moved, illustrating a tendency towards short-term holding, whereas low values are indicative of predominant long-term holding.
- The RHODL Ratio is currently near its two-year median, which has traditionally been crucial in indicating market transitions; the lack of a clear break in either direction is emphasizing the current state of high market indecision.
- The RHODL Ratio has consistently served as a reliable indicator in identifying key market trends and shifts, positioning it as an essential tool for comprehensive market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUt0XkuHyGs
YouTube
Bitcoin and the RHODL Ratio - Glassnode Clips
In this Glassnode Clips, we delve deep into one of the most elegant and reliable on-chain metrics for Bitcoin: the RHODL Ratio. Developed by Philip Swift, this metric serves as a key indicator for understanding Bitcoin's market trends and shifts. We'll explore…
September 26, 2023
Inscriptions have been a significant buyer of Bitcoin blockspace since their introduction in Feb 2023. In this edition, we explore whether inscriptions are displacing monetary transfers, and how the increase in fees has impacted miner profitability.
Executive Summary
Inscriptions act as a form of buyer of last resort for cheap blockspace, and appear to be sensitive to the absolute fee paid.
Inscriptions are best thought of as a sort of 'packing filler' which is stuffed into any remaining space once the higher value monetary transfers are packed into blocks.
Analysis of fees and volume need to consider that there can be a higher perception of 'value' assigned to the inscriptions beyond the BTC volume being transferred and held.
Despite a meaningful uptick in fee revenue for miners, the halving event is likely to put many of them into extreme income stress unless BTC prices increase meaningfully.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletterand our latest Video Report.
Executive Summary
Inscriptions act as a form of buyer of last resort for cheap blockspace, and appear to be sensitive to the absolute fee paid.
Inscriptions are best thought of as a sort of 'packing filler' which is stuffed into any remaining space once the higher value monetary transfers are packed into blocks.
Analysis of fees and volume need to consider that there can be a higher perception of 'value' assigned to the inscriptions beyond the BTC volume being transferred and held.
Despite a meaningful uptick in fee revenue for miners, the halving event is likely to put many of them into extreme income stress unless BTC prices increase meaningfully.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletterand our latest Video Report.
September 26, 2023
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on the upcoming Bitcoin Halving:
- We delve into the implications of the halving, exploring how the reduction in rewards will necessitate a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price to prevent operational losses for miners, potentially leading to the exit of those who can't maintain efficiency in this new landscape.
- Our models reveal a strong correlation between mining difficulty and market cap with a discernible stress point evident 24,000 USD.
- In a post-halving scenario, the focus intensifies on the survival and efficiency of miners, with indicators suggesting a requisite Bitcoin value above 30,000 USD to alleviate stress, thus offering a glimpse into market resilience and health under varying conditions.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0lf7q9OmOc
- We delve into the implications of the halving, exploring how the reduction in rewards will necessitate a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price to prevent operational losses for miners, potentially leading to the exit of those who can't maintain efficiency in this new landscape.
- Our models reveal a strong correlation between mining difficulty and market cap with a discernible stress point evident 24,000 USD.
- In a post-halving scenario, the focus intensifies on the survival and efficiency of miners, with indicators suggesting a requisite Bitcoin value above 30,000 USD to alleviate stress, thus offering a glimpse into market resilience and health under varying conditions.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0lf7q9OmOc
YouTube
Will Bitcoin Miners Survive the Halving? - Glassnode Clips
In this Glassnode Clips, we probe into the complexities and potential pitfalls for Bitcoin miners with the halving on the horizon. We apply detailed analysis using two unique models to draw correlations between difficulty and market cap, providing insights…
September 28, 2023
New Chart of the Week is up! We're exploring the on-chain cost basis and MVRV metrics, spotlighting short-term holders. With Bitcoin's price testing its local range, why are these some of the key on-chain indicators to watch? Watch the video below for insights that can help you with your trading and investment decisions: https://youtu.be/GgDLdZPAX8I
YouTube
Chart of the Week: Short-term Holder Realized Price and MVRV
Chart of the week provides bitesize insights into the market via different charts each week. In this edition, we focus on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and MVRV workbench.
Charts 📊
STH Realized price and MVRV Workbench: https://glassno.de/3Q26X3Z…
Charts 📊
STH Realized price and MVRV Workbench: https://glassno.de/3Q26X3Z…
October 3, 2023
Liquid staking transforms the supply dynamics of Ethereum and creates a shift in the demand for Ethereum's native token.
We discuss how stETH has become particularly attractive on lending platforms, whilst stETH liquidity on decentralized exchanges diminishes.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://t.co/7c3HKsC0LZ
We discuss how stETH has become particularly attractive on lending platforms, whilst stETH liquidity on decentralized exchanges diminishes.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://t.co/7c3HKsC0LZ
October 4, 2023
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Transaction Counts and Block Capacity:
- SegWit utilizes a dual structure that separates transaction data from witness data, allowing inscriptions to be placed in the signature side and benefiting from data discounting.
- In previous bull markets, the transaction count peaked at 400,000 daily, but with modern optimizations, we're seeing numbers rise to 550,000 due to efficient packing of inscriptions.
- The average block now contains between 2.8k - 3.5k transactions, with daily spikes occasionally reaching over 4k per block.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz0T9Ln-eYQ
- SegWit utilizes a dual structure that separates transaction data from witness data, allowing inscriptions to be placed in the signature side and benefiting from data discounting.
- In previous bull markets, the transaction count peaked at 400,000 daily, but with modern optimizations, we're seeing numbers rise to 550,000 due to efficient packing of inscriptions.
- The average block now contains between 2.8k - 3.5k transactions, with daily spikes occasionally reaching over 4k per block.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz0T9Ln-eYQ
YouTube
Bitcoin Transaction Counts and Block Capacity - Glassnode Clips
In this Glassnode Clips, we delve into the intricacies and implications of Bitcoin's Transaction Counts and Block Capacity. We apply rigorous analysis using novel methods to decipher correlations between transaction volume and block limitations, offering…
October 5, 2023
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Percent Short-Term Holders in Profit:
- Short-term holders have recently been the focus, and it's evident they take profits during market peaks and incur losses during dips, as highlighted by a blue oscillator representation.
- Short-term holders are significantly sensitive to their cost-basis; thus, they tend to sell when in profit, but when facing potential losses, they can quickly succumb to panic, leading to asset transfers.
- Interestingly, while short-term holders predominantly impact immediate price actions, long-term holders are more active, especially during the pronounced cycle peaks and troughs.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AfzrLRRgVY
- Short-term holders have recently been the focus, and it's evident they take profits during market peaks and incur losses during dips, as highlighted by a blue oscillator representation.
- Short-term holders are significantly sensitive to their cost-basis; thus, they tend to sell when in profit, but when facing potential losses, they can quickly succumb to panic, leading to asset transfers.
- Interestingly, while short-term holders predominantly impact immediate price actions, long-term holders are more active, especially during the pronounced cycle peaks and troughs.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AfzrLRRgVY
YouTube
Bitcoin Percent Short-Term Holders in Profit - Glassnode Clips
In this Glassnode Clips, we navigate the nuanced world of the Percent Short-Term Holders in Profit. Through meticulous examination, we uncover the patterns of short-term holders during market peaks and troughs. Our exploration sheds light on the behaviors…
October 12, 2023
🔍 Finance Bridge by Glassnode is our go-to resource for traditional finance entities looking to integrate on-chain insights into their trading and investments. In the October edition, we delve into Bitcoin's resilience amidst panic selling and the hints of new capital inflow. We also explore how global economic challenges influence Bitcoin's liquidity and the unique options market dynamics. Plus, learn how to use the MVRV Ratio to inform your trading and investment strategies. Discover all these insights here: https://insights.glassnode.com/finance-bridge-edition-5/
Glassnode Insights - On-Chain Market Intelligence
Finance Bridge: Edition #5
In this issue, we assess Bitcoin's resilience as an asset on the backdrop of complex macroeconomic risks.
October 16, 2023
Capital rotation within digital assets markets occurs both between assets, as well as internally as coins change hands at different acquisition prices.
In this edition, we develop two indicators based off the Realized Cap and NUPL to track this rotation of capital between investors.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain👇
https://glassno.de/3QjOIH9
In this edition, we develop two indicators based off the Realized Cap and NUPL to track this rotation of capital between investors.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain👇
https://glassno.de/3QjOIH9
October 17, 2023
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on The Realized Cap HODL Waves:
- The Realized Cap HODL Waves assesses the distribution of wealth across age cohorts, offering a clearer perspective on Bitcoin's investor sentiment.
- During bull markets, the landscape is dominated by new speculative investors, whereas bear phases see committed long-term HODLers accumulating, highlighting the shifting dynamics of wealth through market cycles.
- This tool provides a vivid display of real-time capital rotations in the market, emphasizing moments when older Bitcoin coins are spent and aiding in a detailed market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHDk9hr7sBg
- The Realized Cap HODL Waves assesses the distribution of wealth across age cohorts, offering a clearer perspective on Bitcoin's investor sentiment.
- During bull markets, the landscape is dominated by new speculative investors, whereas bear phases see committed long-term HODLers accumulating, highlighting the shifting dynamics of wealth through market cycles.
- This tool provides a vivid display of real-time capital rotations in the market, emphasizing moments when older Bitcoin coins are spent and aiding in a detailed market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHDk9hr7sBg
YouTube
Bitcoin: The Realized Cap HODL Waves - Glassnode Clips
In this Glassnode Clips, we explore the Realized Cap HODL Waves. Through detailed analysis, we highlight the distribution of Bitcoin wealth based on coin age and its last transaction price. Our study offers insights into the dynamics between long-term hodlers…
October 19, 2023
The Week On-chain 43, 2023 - A Breath of Fresh Air: Bitcoin Breaks to $35K
Bitcoin prices have broken to new yearly highs, trading above the mid-cycle price level of $30k, and reaching $35k. The market found sufficient strength to break above several important psychological pricing levels, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin bulls have managed to push BTC prices back to $35k, breaking several key technical and on-chain pricing levels which were co-located around $28k, a noteworthy sign of strength.
- Derivatives markets contributed to the move with a pair of short-squeezes, closing out of 60k BTC worth of futures positions, and a $4.3B surge in options call open interest.
- Long-term investors are unphased by this weeks price action, with Long-Term Holder supply reaching new ATHs, and revived supply volumes remaining insignificant.
Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain Newsletter, or watch our latest video report.
Bitcoin prices have broken to new yearly highs, trading above the mid-cycle price level of $30k, and reaching $35k. The market found sufficient strength to break above several important psychological pricing levels, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin bulls have managed to push BTC prices back to $35k, breaking several key technical and on-chain pricing levels which were co-located around $28k, a noteworthy sign of strength.
- Derivatives markets contributed to the move with a pair of short-squeezes, closing out of 60k BTC worth of futures positions, and a $4.3B surge in options call open interest.
- Long-term investors are unphased by this weeks price action, with Long-Term Holder supply reaching new ATHs, and revived supply volumes remaining insignificant.
Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain Newsletter, or watch our latest video report.
October 24, 2023