On-Chain Support Levels

Using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), the nearest support zone lies between $104k–$108k, where over 1.15M BTC was accumulated over the past year. This dense supply region may serve as a strong support if the market continues to correct.

Chart: https://glassno.de/4mWiKOT

ETH Holders in Profit

With Ethereum hitting a new ATH, the MVRV ratio has climbed to 2.15. This means, on average, investors hold over ~2.15x unrealized gains. This level mirrors prior market structures seen in March 2024 and December 2020, both of which preceded periods of elevated volatility and profit-taking.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/3VghiuG

Crucial Support

Bitcoin is now trading just above $110.8k, the average cost basis of 1m-3m old investors who accumulated during the May–July rally to new ATHs. Historically, failure to hold above this level has often led to multi-month market weakness and potential deeper corrections.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/45RDosE

Last week, institutional investors broke the multi-week run of inflows into US spot ETH ETFs with -105K ETH in net outflows. However, this week opened on a positive note, with +16.9K ETH added to positions yesterday.

Bitcoin has now spent 273 days with a super-majority of supply held in profit (above the +1σ band) - the 2nd longest stretch on record, behind only the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. A signal of how extended the current cycle has been relative to history.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.