Week On-Chain, Week 29, 2025

Altcoins are showing broad strength following Bitcoin’s lead, but surging open interest across the sector suggests speculative froth may be building, raising the risk of sharper volatility ahead.

Executive Summary

- Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has hit $1T for the first time, marking a major milestone and reflecting BTC’s deep liquidity and rising significance in global macro markets.

- Altcoins are broadly outperforming Bitcoin, with Ethereum leading the charge. The Altcoin Market Cap has grown by over $216B in just the last two weeks.

- Open Interest in top altcoins has surged from $26B to $44B in July, signaling elevated leverage, which may fuel more intense and reflexive price swings.

- Ethereum has broken above key on-chain resistance levels, including the Active Investor Price and True Market Mean, but heavy sell pressure is expected around the $4.5k mark.

Read the full report here

On Deribit’s Crypto Options Unplugged, Glassnode’s CCO Daniel Blackmore explains why investor flows, trading patterns, and market positioning all point to ETH setting up for a bigger move.

While Bitcoin stalls, Ethereum is drawing attention from large allocators.

If you're watching the rotation unfold, listen to this conversation to learn:
• How on-chain data reveals where capital is moving • What options markets are signaling about investor sentiment • Why ETH liquidity could make small inflows drive outsized moves

A sharp look at how Glassnode’s data captures the real pulse of the market.

Watch it here.

Week On-Chain, Week 31, 2025

Bitcoin has slipped below $116k, entering a low‑liquidity “air gap”, a zone where few coins have changed hands. Short-Term Holder profitability has hit the bull market mid-line, ETF flows have turned negative, and funding rates are cooling off as the market is trying to find support.

Executive Summary:

- After peaking above $123k in mid‑July, BTC has since entered a phase of indecision, with the price trading below the supply cluster with a base at $116k.

- On July 31, price broke below the lower boundary of this cluster, slipping into a relatively low‑liquidity “air gap”, which persists down to $110k. Opportunistic buying has emerged, but the market is yet to reclaim key resistance levels.

- Short‑term holder profitability has dropped, although around 70% of their supply is still held in profit. Without a quick rebound in demand, confidence amongst these new investors may start to weaken, prompting further sell pressure.

Read the full report here.

~120k BTC were acquired during the rebound from $112k to $114k - evidence of opportunistic buying. Yet supply within the $110k–$116k range remains sparse, meaning stronger accumulation is needed to form lasting support: https://glassno.de/4mzDbRB

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the cost basis of short-term top buyers (~$116.9k). Remaining below this level raises the probability of extended consolidation or further correction toward the lower $110k region.

Spent volume by Bitcoin short-term holders in profit has cooled to 45%, below the neutral threshold. This reflects a balanced market, with modest profit-taking and no clear directional conviction among short-term investors.

Shrimp-to-Fish cohorts (wallets with <100 BTC) continue to absorb supply faster than it’s created. Monthly balance growth sits above +17K BTC - outpacing the +13.85K Bitcoin issuance - with Shrimps alone adding nearly 10K Bitcoin, underscoring persistent retail-led accumulation.

After peaking on 16 July (Spot: $10.22B, Futures: $60.17B), both BTC spot and futures volumes have trended lower. However, current levels (7 Aug) at $6.61B and $41.05B remain well above the early-July lows of $4.85B and $33.82B, respectively.

XRP futures activity surged, with 24h volume up +208% to $12.4B - overtaking Solana’s $9.6B. Open interest climbed to $5.9B (+15%), while a positive funding rate suggests heavy long positioning - which could raise liquidation risk if price turns lower.

Since Jun 21, short-term holders - investors holding BTC <155 days - have added over 220K BTC to their balance (+9.9%). While notable, it’s modest compared to Jan–Mar, when supply surged by 540K BTC (+25%) in one of the sharpest rotations this cycle.

At 29.79%, Bitcoin’s 3-month realized volatility is at its lowest since Sep 2023. This cycle’s volatility profile stands out - staying mostly below 50%, compared to frequent 80–100% readings in the last two bull markets.

A useful gauge of short-term demand trends and potential reversals: when the cost basis of 1w–1m holders exceeds that of 1m–3m holders, it signals newer buyers paying a premium - a bullish sign. The gap remains wide, suggesting short-term demand for Bitcoin is still strong.

With ETH shooting up above $4.6K, its price came just 3.9% below its previous all-time high. As Ethereum strength builds, capital rotates further along the risk curve.

BTC dominance fell from 65% to 59% over two months, underscoring the growing appeal of altcoins amid broader risk-on behavior.

ETH futures open interest printed a new ATH around $35.5B as spot pushed to ~$4.59k. Leverage has rebuilt across venues, setting the stage for larger moves as positioning concentrates.

Shorts are feeling it: ~$66M in short liquidations on Aug 12 with price near $4.62k. This is the second largest shorts liquidation event this year-to-date.