The Week On-Chain, Week 08, 2025
Bybit’s historic $1.48B hack triggered panic withdrawals and a market-wide sell-off, pushing Bitcoin to $87K, 20.2% below its ATH. As a result, new investors faced severe unrealized losses, and with the STH-MVRV at 0.95, loss realization intensified. Without a strong demand catalyst, the downtrend may continue.
Executive Summary
🔸Bybit Hack: A smart contract exploit drained 403,996 ETH (~$1.13B) from Bybit’s cold wallets, triggering $4.3B in outflows across Bitcoin and stablecoins.
🔸Market Sell-Off: Sentiment collapsed, with Bitcoin down -13.6%, Ethereum -22.9%, Solana -40%, and Meme Coins -36.9%, resetting momentum to April 2024 levels.
🔸Bitcoin Weakness: The drop pushed BTC into the $70K-$88K realized supply “air gap,” initially driven by long-term holder sell-offs and worsened by the Bybit hack.
🔸STH Pressure: STH-MVRV at 0.95 shows recent buyers 5% underwater, with profitability down 15.8%, signaling heavy unrealized losses.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Bybit’s historic $1.48B hack triggered panic withdrawals and a market-wide sell-off, pushing Bitcoin to $87K, 20.2% below its ATH. As a result, new investors faced severe unrealized losses, and with the STH-MVRV at 0.95, loss realization intensified. Without a strong demand catalyst, the downtrend may continue.
Executive Summary
🔸Bybit Hack: A smart contract exploit drained 403,996 ETH (~$1.13B) from Bybit’s cold wallets, triggering $4.3B in outflows across Bitcoin and stablecoins.
🔸Market Sell-Off: Sentiment collapsed, with Bitcoin down -13.6%, Ethereum -22.9%, Solana -40%, and Meme Coins -36.9%, resetting momentum to April 2024 levels.
🔸Bitcoin Weakness: The drop pushed BTC into the $70K-$88K realized supply “air gap,” initially driven by long-term holder sell-offs and worsened by the Bybit hack.
🔸STH Pressure: STH-MVRV at 0.95 shows recent buyers 5% underwater, with profitability down 15.8%, signaling heavy unrealized losses.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
📊 Who is realizing the most losses in Bitcoin’s latest sell-off?
Between Feb 25-27, over $2.16B in realized losses came from the most recent market entrants.
We break down the losses by age cohorts, contrast with prior peaks, and assess the market impact:
🟠1d-1w cohort: $927M (42.85% of young cohort losses)
🟡1w-1m cohort: $678M (31.3%)
🟣1m-3m cohort: $257M (11.9%)
🔴24h cohort: $322M (14.0%)
Bottomline: The largest capitulations came from those who bought BTC within the past week (‼️)
In contrast, losses among those who held BTC for 3m-6m or longer remain negligible:
🔵3m-6m cohort: $6.5M (0.3% of young cohort losses)
🟢6m-12m cohort: $3.2M (0.15%)
This suggests that those who entered in H2 2024 or earlier are largely holding, while more recent buyers are exiting under pressure.
Across all cohorts, Feb 26 was still the largest single-day sell-off in months, with $1.13B in aggregate realized losses:
🔹Feb 3: $848M (-25%)
🔹Aug 6: $2.02B (+79%)
🔹July 5: $1.3B (+15%)
Realized Loss by Age chart.
Between Feb 25-27, over $2.16B in realized losses came from the most recent market entrants.
We break down the losses by age cohorts, contrast with prior peaks, and assess the market impact:
🟠1d-1w cohort: $927M (42.85% of young cohort losses)
🟡1w-1m cohort: $678M (31.3%)
🟣1m-3m cohort: $257M (11.9%)
🔴24h cohort: $322M (14.0%)
Bottomline: The largest capitulations came from those who bought BTC within the past week (‼️)
In contrast, losses among those who held BTC for 3m-6m or longer remain negligible:
🔵3m-6m cohort: $6.5M (0.3% of young cohort losses)
🟢6m-12m cohort: $3.2M (0.15%)
This suggests that those who entered in H2 2024 or earlier are largely holding, while more recent buyers are exiting under pressure.
Across all cohorts, Feb 26 was still the largest single-day sell-off in months, with $1.13B in aggregate realized losses:
🔹Feb 3: $848M (-25%)
🔹Aug 6: $2.02B (+79%)
🔹July 5: $1.3B (+15%)
Realized Loss by Age chart.
🔍 Spotting Market Bottoms with On-Chain Data
Where do local bottoms form? Often in zones of maximum pain, when forced selling peaks. Our capitulation metric, based on Cost Basis Distribution, helps pinpoint these moments - offering data-driven insights into potential turning points.
📊 Key Benefits:
✔ Identify capitulation zones where selling pressure exhausts
✔ Track where distressed sellers exit and demand emerges
✔ Use on-chain data to navigate market turning points
Want to explore it yourself?
📖 Read more on Insights.
💡Try it on Google Colab: Backtest historical capitulation events hands-on.
Where do local bottoms form? Often in zones of maximum pain, when forced selling peaks. Our capitulation metric, based on Cost Basis Distribution, helps pinpoint these moments - offering data-driven insights into potential turning points.
📊 Key Benefits:
✔ Identify capitulation zones where selling pressure exhausts
✔ Track where distressed sellers exit and demand emerges
✔ Use on-chain data to navigate market turning points
Want to explore it yourself?
📖 Read more on Insights.
💡Try it on Google Colab: Backtest historical capitulation events hands-on.
📢 New Metric Release: Introducing On-Chain Retention
What is On-Chain Retention?
Retention is a fundamental metric for assessing engagement and sustainability of a business, but until now, digital assets lacked a robust framework for measuring it.
Glassnode introduces a solution to this problem with On-Chain Retention - a set of metrics tracking user engagement and investor loyalty across BTC, ETH, and 700+ ERC-20 tokens.
Why does this matter?
Traditional on-chain metrics track activity and balances, but they don’t categorize users based on commitment.
On-Chain Retention fills this gap by tracking addresses across intuitive categories such as new, retained, resurrected or churned over time.
How can investors use this?
✔️Distinguish real demand from speculation
✔️Detect early signs of capital flight and sell pressure
✔️Compare engagement and loyalty across assets
Read the full research article to learn how On-Chain Retention works and how to use it in practice.
What is On-Chain Retention?
Retention is a fundamental metric for assessing engagement and sustainability of a business, but until now, digital assets lacked a robust framework for measuring it.
Glassnode introduces a solution to this problem with On-Chain Retention - a set of metrics tracking user engagement and investor loyalty across BTC, ETH, and 700+ ERC-20 tokens.
Why does this matter?
Traditional on-chain metrics track activity and balances, but they don’t categorize users based on commitment.
On-Chain Retention fills this gap by tracking addresses across intuitive categories such as new, retained, resurrected or churned over time.
How can investors use this?
✔️Distinguish real demand from speculation
✔️Detect early signs of capital flight and sell pressure
✔️Compare engagement and loyalty across assets
Read the full research article to learn how On-Chain Retention works and how to use it in practice.
Glassnode Insights - On-Chain Market Intelligence
On-Chain Retention: A Novel Concept to Measure Engagement with Digital Assets
We introduce On-Chain Retention, a novel concept for measuring user engagement and investor loyalty in digital assets through Activity Retention (ongoing interactions) and Holder Retention (sustained ownership). These metrics reveal insights into investor…
The Week On-Chain, Week 10, 2025
Bitcoin continues to face persistent sell pressure, especially from recent buyers. The asset has seen weak demand and fading accumulation since January. Short-term holders are capitulating, driving STH-SOPR into loss territory, mirroring the August 2024 crash to $49k.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin entered a phase of strong investor distribution in early January, with the Accumulation Trend Score confirming persistent sell-side pressure.
🔸Heightened volatility, weak demand, and liquidity constraints have prevented meaningful accumulation from restarting, reinforcing downside risks.
🔸Panic-driven selling has intensified, with STH-SOPR spiking well below the break-even level of 1, signalling fear and loss realization among recent buyers.
🔸A custom SOPR-adjusted CDD metric we developed shows that the intensity of the sell-off mirrors past capitulation events, notably the one in August 2024, as the market plunged to $49k.
Read more in the latest Week On-Chain. Charts here.
Bitcoin continues to face persistent sell pressure, especially from recent buyers. The asset has seen weak demand and fading accumulation since January. Short-term holders are capitulating, driving STH-SOPR into loss territory, mirroring the August 2024 crash to $49k.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin entered a phase of strong investor distribution in early January, with the Accumulation Trend Score confirming persistent sell-side pressure.
🔸Heightened volatility, weak demand, and liquidity constraints have prevented meaningful accumulation from restarting, reinforcing downside risks.
🔸Panic-driven selling has intensified, with STH-SOPR spiking well below the break-even level of 1, signalling fear and loss realization among recent buyers.
🔸A custom SOPR-adjusted CDD metric we developed shows that the intensity of the sell-off mirrors past capitulation events, notably the one in August 2024, as the market plunged to $49k.
Read more in the latest Week On-Chain. Charts here.
Are Metaverse tokens still relevant to investors?
Our latest analysis applies the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) framework to major Metaverse assets like SAND, MANA, and AXS - offering a new perspective on investor conviction and engagement.
This article explores:
🔸How has the cost basis of long-term holders evolved over time?
🔸Are certain investor cohorts still accumulating Metaverse tokens?
🔸What can cost basis trends reveal about the potential for renewed interest?
Read the full report here.
Our latest analysis applies the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) framework to major Metaverse assets like SAND, MANA, and AXS - offering a new perspective on investor conviction and engagement.
This article explores:
🔸How has the cost basis of long-term holders evolved over time?
🔸Are certain investor cohorts still accumulating Metaverse tokens?
🔸What can cost basis trends reveal about the potential for renewed interest?
Read the full report here.
How do early token holders impact market trends?
Early adopters often control a large share of a token’s supply, and their buying and selling behavior can strongly influence price movements.
Glassnode introduces a framework that helps traders anticipate market shifts by analyzing:
🔸Early Holder Balance – When are large holders selling?
🔸Herfindahl Index – How concentrated is token ownership?
🔸NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) – Are early adopters still in profit?
🔸Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) – Where did early holders accumulate, and when do they distribute?
By using these insights, traders can detect profit-taking trends, time exits more effectively, and avoid sharp corrections.
Read the full research breakdown here.
Early adopters often control a large share of a token’s supply, and their buying and selling behavior can strongly influence price movements.
Glassnode introduces a framework that helps traders anticipate market shifts by analyzing:
🔸Early Holder Balance – When are large holders selling?
🔸Herfindahl Index – How concentrated is token ownership?
🔸NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) – Are early adopters still in profit?
🔸Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) – Where did early holders accumulate, and when do they distribute?
By using these insights, traders can detect profit-taking trends, time exits more effectively, and avoid sharp corrections.
Read the full research breakdown here.
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The Week On-Chain, Week 11, 2025
The Bitcoin market continues to adjust to its new price range after experiencing a -30% correction. Liquidity conditions are also contracting in both on-chain and futures markets. Additionally, Long-Term Holders remain inactive, reinforcing a picture of a sluggish market and sideways price action.
Executive Summary
🔸Liquidity continues to contract across on-chain and spot markets, with net capital inflows grinding to a halt, and exchange inflows slowing down.
🔸Key options metrics express a preference for downside risk aversion, with the implied volatility priced into put options resulting in elevated premiums.
🔸Short-term investors are experiencing significant pressure to lock in losses.
🔸Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.
Read the full report here.
View the charts from this edition here.
The Bitcoin market continues to adjust to its new price range after experiencing a -30% correction. Liquidity conditions are also contracting in both on-chain and futures markets. Additionally, Long-Term Holders remain inactive, reinforcing a picture of a sluggish market and sideways price action.
Executive Summary
🔸Liquidity continues to contract across on-chain and spot markets, with net capital inflows grinding to a halt, and exchange inflows slowing down.
🔸Key options metrics express a preference for downside risk aversion, with the implied volatility priced into put options resulting in elevated premiums.
🔸Short-term investors are experiencing significant pressure to lock in losses.
🔸Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.
Read the full report here.
View the charts from this edition here.
📊 SOL URPD: Identifying Key Support and Resistance Levels
Glassnode’s URPD metrics provide insights into price levels where supply is concentrated, helping investors gauge key levels of interest.
🔹 Support:
$112.10: 9.7M SOL (1.67% of supply) was acquired here. Since Jan 19, investors added 4M SOL, indicating strong conviction.
$94, $97, and $100 collectively hold 21M SOL (3.5%). If lost, downside risk increases due to low supply until $56.
🔹 Recent Accumulation:
$123 (16.2M SOL, 2.7%) and $126 (19M SOL, 3.2%) saw strong demand, potentially stabilizing the downtrend.
🔹 Resistance:
$135 holds 26.6M SOL, but $144 is crucial - 27M SOL (5% of supply) was acquired here, making it a significant test for further upside.
URPD was originally developed for Bitcoin but is now available for $SOL, $BNB, $TON, $DOGE, $TRX, and $XRP, offering investors granular insights to navigate key price levels.
Access URPD metric for Solana and other assets here.
Glassnode’s URPD metrics provide insights into price levels where supply is concentrated, helping investors gauge key levels of interest.
🔹 Support:
$112.10: 9.7M SOL (1.67% of supply) was acquired here. Since Jan 19, investors added 4M SOL, indicating strong conviction.
$94, $97, and $100 collectively hold 21M SOL (3.5%). If lost, downside risk increases due to low supply until $56.
🔹 Recent Accumulation:
$123 (16.2M SOL, 2.7%) and $126 (19M SOL, 3.2%) saw strong demand, potentially stabilizing the downtrend.
🔹 Resistance:
$135 holds 26.6M SOL, but $144 is crucial - 27M SOL (5% of supply) was acquired here, making it a significant test for further upside.
URPD was originally developed for Bitcoin but is now available for $SOL, $BNB, $TON, $DOGE, $TRX, and $XRP, offering investors granular insights to navigate key price levels.
Access URPD metric for Solana and other assets here.
We’re proud to share that Glassnode has been shortlisted in 3 categories at the 2025 Hedgeweek Global Digital Assets Awards:
🔸Alternative Data Provider of the Year
🔸Digital Asset Research Provider of the Year
🔸Solution Provider of the Year: Data and Research
It's a major recognition of our efforts to raise the bar for crypto market intelligence. Thank you for being a part of this journey.
If you'd like to show us your support, we encourage you to cast your vote here: https://glassno.de/3QOobS3
🔸Alternative Data Provider of the Year
🔸Digital Asset Research Provider of the Year
🔸Solution Provider of the Year: Data and Research
It's a major recognition of our efforts to raise the bar for crypto market intelligence. Thank you for being a part of this journey.
If you'd like to show us your support, we encourage you to cast your vote here: https://glassno.de/3QOobS3
The Week On-Chain, Week 13, 2025
Bitcoin prices have continued to slide this week, with signs of seller exhaustion developing but no apparent trend reversal just yet. As a proxy for retail activity, we analyze XRP’s explosive rally as an initial burst of capital inflow stalls, momentum fades, and fragile sentiment raises caution.
Executive Summary
🔸The Bitcoin market continues to consolidate within the $76k to $87k range, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio starting to show signs of near-term seller exhaustion but not yet a renewal of sustained bullish momentum.
🔸A longer-term view reveals a deterioration of investor profitability, and an on-chain ‘Death-Cross’ has occurred, suggesting the market may remain weak.
🔹Ripple’s XRP network recently experienced a +490% spike in address activity and a near-doubling of Realized Cap, signalling aggressive retail interest. However, profitability has rapidly faded.
🔗Read the full analysis here.
📊View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
Bitcoin prices have continued to slide this week, with signs of seller exhaustion developing but no apparent trend reversal just yet. As a proxy for retail activity, we analyze XRP’s explosive rally as an initial burst of capital inflow stalls, momentum fades, and fragile sentiment raises caution.
Executive Summary
🔸The Bitcoin market continues to consolidate within the $76k to $87k range, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio starting to show signs of near-term seller exhaustion but not yet a renewal of sustained bullish momentum.
🔸A longer-term view reveals a deterioration of investor profitability, and an on-chain ‘Death-Cross’ has occurred, suggesting the market may remain weak.
🔹Ripple’s XRP network recently experienced a +490% spike in address activity and a near-doubling of Realized Cap, signalling aggressive retail interest. However, profitability has rapidly faded.
🔗Read the full analysis here.
📊View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities - a level of fear not seen since BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23.
Despite this, BTC hasn't broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect - rising panic without a price collapse - makes the current options market setup especially notable.
Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.
Charts (available to Glassnode Professional plan users):
🔗https://glassno.de/41XBvd1
🔗https://glassno.de/42uRHmb
Despite this, BTC hasn't broken down like equities did on recent tariff headlines. That disconnect - rising panic without a price collapse - makes the current options market setup especially notable.
Skew like this usually appears when positioning is one-sided and fear runs high. TLDR: panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.
Charts (available to Glassnode Professional plan users):
🔗https://glassno.de/41XBvd1
🔗https://glassno.de/42uRHmb