Bitcoin moved into an early recovery in Q3, even as the Fed resumed tightening.

Our Q4 2026 Charting Crypto report with Coinbase Institutional reads the data behind it. Its outlook: constructive, with reasons for near-term caution.

Download the report: https://glassno.de/4s56RtH

Buyers kept refilling the $BTC book today.

The low timeframe view shows that the large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically.

Now we see the support level under $80k weakening again.

$BTC sellers capitulated again yesterday.

Every burst of loss selling came right at a local bottom: early August, mid-August and mid-September.

Profit taking has slowed since the September high.

If the pattern holds, yesterday's selling just above $80k would mark the floor.

Weekend selling has hit altcoins hard.

As fear from equities spills into crypto, the typical altcoin is down over 5%. If the weekend closes like this it would be the largest weekend drop since April.

Since the $BTC low in June, buying Friday and selling Sunday was profitable.

Altcoin leverage is still running hot.

Prices have pulled back since leverage peaked earlier this month, yet over 40% of large caps still sit near their highest leverage of the year. In mid caps, that share is at a yearly high.

A deeper drop would put many longs at risk.

Short-term profit-taking has weighed on $BTC.

Two weeks ago we flagged short-term holders in profit sending the largest share of exchange inflows in a year. This selling has weighed on price since.

The flow has now eased back to its average yearly level.

ETF buyers came back in size yesterday.

US spot $BTC ETFs took in $663M, the most in a day since September, and all of it went into BlackRock's IBIT.

That single day erased the funds' net outflows for October. Follow-through would confirm the demand is back.

The Q4 levels for $BTC have held so far.

Last month, together with @colin_basco and the @CoinbaseInsto team we put resistance at $87K to $87.8K in our Charting Crypto report. We read the data as near-term consolidation.

Price stalled there and ranged below it ever since.

A break out of the range is likely to spark significant volatility, although another overhead supply cluster sits around $90k.

Read our full quarterly report below👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2110737242608246947