Existing holders have been carrying this $BTC rally.

The realized cap keeps climbing while new money from ETFs, stablecoins and treasuries is dropping.

The 2024 and 2025 rallies showed the same gap, but on far larger inflows. A pickup in new money would put real demand behind BTC.

Most #BTC with a visible public key is exposed through address reuse, and that part has been growing.

The balance in reused addresses rose from 3.79M to 4.33M BTC over the past year, and now covers 21.5% of circulating supply.

$BTC has bounced off the ETF cost basis.

Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it.

It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.

The cost basis of investors that bought the top still caps BTC's upside.

Holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago sold heavily as $BTC rallied toward $88k, where the 6 to 12 month group breaks even. Price stalled just under it.

That selling has since slowed considerably.

BTC is holding the ETF cost basis.

That line sits near $81.5K, and every daily close for the last 3 weeks has held above it. A large block of bids waits just below.

A break under this level could set off forced selling and deepen the drop.

https://x.com/i/article/2110391618755031040

$BTC is sitting on support.

However, underneath it a large cluster of long liquidations will be triggered. Another cluster sits around $75k.

Overhead, shorts liquidations have piled up above $85k all week. The lower clusters currently appear more fragile than those above.

Bitcoin moved into an early recovery in Q3, even as the Fed resumed tightening.

Our Q4 2026 Charting Crypto report with Coinbase Institutional reads the data behind it. Its outlook: constructive, with reasons for near-term caution.

Download the report: https://glassno.de/4s56RtH