The market repriced the odds of an October Fed hike from 66% to 22% this week.

Here is our commentary on the repricing as it happened and what Bitcoin did.

https://glassno.de/pricing-out-the-hike

$BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.

No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.

In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.

This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.

$BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.

If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.

Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.

Either side could speed up the next move.

Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.

Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.

It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.

Large entities are back in profit.

Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, $BTC held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.

In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.

Bitcoin got through the $85K wall, but the rally is running light.

Our new Week On-chain maps what is missing, what altcoins are doing and the levels to watch.

The US bid that led $BTC has flipped.

From July to the September breakout, US trading hours drove most of Bitcoin's gains. Since then, the US session has been a net seller.

The full picture, from ETF flows to liquidations, in this week's Week On-chain 👇