Bitcoin's relative strength is back.

In June, $BTC beat the S&P 500 on just 1/5th of trading days, the weakest stretch in six years.

Its win rate is now back above 50% with stocks flat.

This points to an idiosyncratic bid for Bitcoin itself.

The sell wall over $BTC has gone.

Buyers took out the $85k wall yesterday, after almost a week of failed tests.

The rest of the sell orders seem to have been removed.

With reduced ask liquidity above, this should allow price to move up faster.

Sellers stepped aside and $BTC ran higher.

The asks at $85k were partly filled and the rest pulled, which left little resistance above.

Price has now reached the next cluster of sell orders around $87k.

It is about half the size of the old wall.

$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling.

Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k.

Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year.

Those who bought the decline are not.

The market repriced the odds of an October Fed hike from 66% to 22% this week.

Here is our commentary on the repricing as it happened and what Bitcoin did.

https://glassno.de/pricing-out-the-hike

$BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.

No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.

In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.

This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.

$BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.

If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.

Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.

Either side could speed up the next move.

Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.

Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.

It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.

Large entities are back in profit.

Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, $BTC held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.

In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.