$BTC options are showing a cautious but improving setup. Vol is being repriced higher, short-dated fear is fading, calls still dominate OI, and recent premium flow is increasingly constructive. Here’s what the options market is signalling👇

$BTC options have shifted back to a modest vol premium, with IV now ~10% above RV after weeks of realised vol outpacing implied. The market is paying up for uncertainty again, but pricing remains far from stressed.
https://glassno.de/4z8hejG

$BTC skew has softened sharply at the front end, with 1-week 25Δ skew falling toward ~7%. Longer tenors remain elevated near 10–12%, suggesting near-term fear is fading while structural demand for downside protection persists.
https://glassno.de/4fKKV2B

BTC options OI remains call-heavy, with calls near ~$15B versus ~$10B in puts after a sharp expiry-driven reset. The persistent gap shows call-side positioning remains structurally larger despite weaker spot.
https://glassno.de/3UkdXgX

Premium flow is concentrated around $61k–$67k, led by heavy $65k call buying and put selling. The mix points to constructive near-term positioning, while put demand below spot shows downside hedging remains active.
https://glassno.de/4hqnRrb

Wrap up:
$BTC options point to a market growing more constructive without abandoning protection. Near-term fear is easing, calls still dominate positioning, and fresh flow is improving, but longer-dated hedging demand remains elevated.

Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern.

Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape.

Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios.

https://glassno.de/4q7edf4

Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past $BTC bear markets.

According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet.

We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.

Sellers are tiring but buyers are absent. However, leverage traders have already pulled the trigger on a recovery the data does not yet support.

The market is coiled tightly between converging cost-basis levels on the quietest tape since 2019.

Read it here

ICYMI: $BTC futures OI has climbed past a full day of futures volume, just shy of last September's record.

Plenty of positions, thin turnover. On a tape this thin, liquidations meet little resistance in either direction.

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446

$BTC options remain subdued, with volatility and skew continuing to compress. But positioning beneath the surface is becoming more concentrated around key strikes, creating a clearer setup across the options complex.

Here’s what the data shows👇

$BTC implied volatility continues to compress, led by the front end. 1-week ATM IV has fallen toward 26%, while 6-month IV remains near 39%, steepening the term structure as traders price in subdued near-term moves but retain longer-dated uncertainty.

https://glassno.de/4qf2mvA

25-delta skew has compressed sharply across tenors, with 1-week skew falling toward ~5%. The decline points to softer demand for downside protection, suggesting options markets are becoming less defensively positioned.

https://glassno.de/4gdga5q

GEX remains concentrated around spot, with negative gamma clustered through the low-$60Ks and positive gamma building closer to ~$70K. This leaves BTC vulnerable to sharper moves lower, while upside may encounter more stabilising dealer hedging.

https://glassno.de/4gh93Zz

Wrap up:

Overall, options markets are less defensive, but not complacent. Falling IV and skew point to reduced near-term fear, while concentrated gamma and strike activity suggest the $60K–$70K range remains the key battleground for the next directional move.