Speculative supply is thinning while dormant coins climb. Our 3Q26 Charting Crypto report with Coinbase Institutional outlines how the macro liquidity cycle is steering price, and where early accumulation signals are forming.

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This bear market is 49% deep. Every prior one bottomed far below that.

By depth, it is the mildest on record so far. By the clock it isn't finished: prior bear markets ran about 1/3 longer before reaching the lows

See more in our report "Paid to Wait"

$BTC has slipped back to $62.6K, unwinding much of July’s rebound and returning to the lower end of its range. Yet options positioning is rebuilding while implied volatility remains subdued, signalling continued market complacency.

Short-dated ATM volatility has fallen sharply, with 1-week IV near 34% versus ~42% at six months. The steepening term structure signals muted near-term risk, but persistent uncertainty further out.
https://glassno.de/4pLcTOQ

Call OI has rebounded to ~$23B while put OI sits near ~$11B, pulling the put/call ratio towards 0.5. Positioning remains call-heavy, signalling stronger upside participation than demand for protection.
https://glassno.de/4fxt3bd

Bitcoin options open interest has rebuilt to ~$34B from June’s ~$25B low as BTC recovered towards $65K. Positioning is returning, but remains below 2025 peaks, signalling renewed engagement without excessive leverage.
https://glassno.de/4pQvcCt

Wrap-up:
Positioning has rebuilt, but volatility markets remain notably relaxed despite renewed price weakness. Call-side OI dominates, while low DVOL suggests traders are still pricing limited near-term movement.

The dollar has been rallying since May, and $BTC is taking it worse than almost any dollar rally on record.

Across every dollar rally since 2015, $BTC showed significantly more relative strength.

A flip of this relationship would be a positive signal

https://glassno.de/4c8YqXl

Three-month futures basis has paid less than a 2-year Treasury since February.

Only one other stretch on record has run this long: August 2022 into January 2023. It ended at the cycle low.

This also directly impacts depth and volumes across the market.

https://glassno.de/3REiIkJ

An extreme day for $BTC: As the Coldcard hack news broke on Friday, eight on-chain metrics printed values well above their two-year median.

The data indicates holders are migrating their coins to new wallets rather than sending to exchanges

https://glassno.de/4g6zy54