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To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly.
The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it. Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side before eventually exhausting.
Until this share begins to compress, the structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the dominant force in exchange flow.
π http://glassno.de/btc-lth-sth-exchange-rpnl
Quoting cryptovizart:
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market's end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.
This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.
Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure. When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.
Worth watching closely.
π http://glassno.de/btc-realized-loss-1y2y
The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it. Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side before eventually exhausting.
Until this share begins to compress, the structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the dominant force in exchange flow.
π http://glassno.de/btc-lth-sth-exchange-rpnl
Quoting cryptovizart:
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market's end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.
This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.
Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure. When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.
Worth watching closely.
π http://glassno.de/btc-realized-loss-1y2y
Glassnode Studio
Bitcoin Relative LTH/STH Realized Profit/Loss to Exchanges All Exchanges - Glassnode
**Definition.** Relative Long/Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss to Exchanges is the relative distribution of the total profit and loss (USD value) of all coins moved by [long- and short-term holders](https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoinβ¦
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Glassnode
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$BTC options are turning more constructive: volatility is easing, the put/call ratio is at a six-month low, and upside exposure is rebuilding.
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.π
$BTC implied volatility has fallen from 48 to 40 as price recovered. The decline in DVOL shows the options market unwinding part of Juneβs fear premium, although volatility remains above May lows, signalling that uncertainty has eased, not disappeared.
https://glassno.de/4fkriN4
$BTC is consolidating near $63K, below a dense negative-gamma cluster around $68Kβ$70K. A move into this zone could trigger more pro-cyclical dealer hedging and amplify volatility.
https://glassno.de/4wRJMvO
$BTCβs options put/call ratio has fallen to a six-month low near 0.59, signalling a decisive shift toward call-heavy positioning. As price stabilises around $64K, traders appear to be reducing downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure, a constructive shift in sentiment.
https://glassno.de/45aozBe
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.π
$BTC implied volatility has fallen from 48 to 40 as price recovered. The decline in DVOL shows the options market unwinding part of Juneβs fear premium, although volatility remains above May lows, signalling that uncertainty has eased, not disappeared.
https://glassno.de/4fkriN4
$BTC is consolidating near $63K, below a dense negative-gamma cluster around $68Kβ$70K. A move into this zone could trigger more pro-cyclical dealer hedging and amplify volatility.
https://glassno.de/4wRJMvO
$BTCβs options put/call ratio has fallen to a six-month low near 0.59, signalling a decisive shift toward call-heavy positioning. As price stabilises around $64K, traders appear to be reducing downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure, a constructive shift in sentiment.
https://glassno.de/45aozBe
Glassnode Studio
Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) Chart - Glassnode
**Definition.** DVOL Index, developed by Deribit and inspired by the VIX methodology in traditional finance, tracks the 30-day implied volatility of options. It reflects market expectations and the pricing of crypto option risk.
**Technical.** The indexβ¦
**Technical.** The indexβ¦
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π Update:
With the spot price trading at $64.9K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:
π‘ Active Investors Mean: $83.5k
π’True Market Mean: $76.2K
π΄ STH Cost Basis: $69.5K
---- Spot Price: $64.9K ----
π΅ Realized Price: $52.9K
π http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
With the spot price trading at $64.9K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:
π‘ Active Investors Mean: $83.5k
π’True Market Mean: $76.2K
π΄ STH Cost Basis: $69.5K
---- Spot Price: $64.9K ----
π΅ Realized Price: $52.9K
π http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
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$BTC is consolidating near $64.5K, supported by strong profitability and stable derivatives. Rising hot capital and sell-side pressure, however, leave the market increasingly sensitive to volatility.
Read this weekβs Market Pulseπ
Read this weekβs Market Pulseπ
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Solana rotates block production to a new leader every 1.6 seconds.
This epoch, 67% of blocks are being produced in Europe.
Our dashboard helps users identify optimal connection points to minimize latency.
Frankfurt average: 72ms. US East average: 140ms
http://latency.glassnode.com/solana
This epoch, 67% of blocks are being produced in Europe.
Our dashboard helps users identify optimal connection points to minimize latency.
Frankfurt average: 72ms. US East average: 140ms
http://latency.glassnode.com/solana
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Hedges are off, shorts are closed, and ETF flows have flipped positive.
What $BTC needs now is confirmation at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69k; rejection there puts the lower demand shelf back in play.
Read the full Week On-Chain reportπ
What $BTC needs now is confirmation at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69k; rejection there puts the lower demand shelf back in play.
Read the full Week On-Chain reportπ
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Strategy Watch #6 is liveπ
June turned risk-off: directional funds fell (Fundamental -11.6%) while market-neutral held up, and net capital left every major asset.
Our monthly read on fund performance & flows, with Crypto Insights Group
June turned risk-off: directional funds fell (Fundamental -11.6%) while market-neutral held up, and net capital left every major asset.
Our monthly read on fund performance & flows, with Crypto Insights Group
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$BTC options are turning less defensive as put/call ratios and short-dated skew fall, while volatility stays compressed.
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.π
The $BTC options OI put/call ratio has fallen sharply to ~0.52, down from ~0.76 in late June. Call open interest is gaining share relative to puts, signalling an unwind in defensive positioning as price stabilises near $67K.
https://glassno.de/4wDxt6J
$BTC ATM implied volatility remains compressed across the curve, with 1W at 34.3% versus 6M at 40.8%. The upward-sloping term structure shows near-term event risk is being discounted, while longer-dated uncertainty retains a modest premium.
25-delta skew has fallen sharply at the front end, with 1W dropping near 4%, while 3Mβ6M remain around 11β12%. Near-term downside hedging is unwinding, but longer-dated options retain a defensive premium.
https://glassno.de/4fCt2Sf
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.π
The $BTC options OI put/call ratio has fallen sharply to ~0.52, down from ~0.76 in late June. Call open interest is gaining share relative to puts, signalling an unwind in defensive positioning as price stabilises near $67K.
https://glassno.de/4wDxt6J
$BTC ATM implied volatility remains compressed across the curve, with 1W at 34.3% versus 6M at 40.8%. The upward-sloping term structure shows near-term event risk is being discounted, while longer-dated uncertainty retains a modest premium.
25-delta skew has fallen sharply at the front end, with 1W dropping near 4%, while 3Mβ6M remain around 11β12%. Near-term downside hedging is unwinding, but longer-dated options retain a defensive premium.
https://glassno.de/4fCt2Sf
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