The Altcoin Cycle Signal is back in Altcoin Season. The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid. Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively. For now, the BTC side is still doing most of the work.

https://glassno.de/4eIE8Vr

Hyperliquid traders are increasingly leaning long despite $BTC remaining well below its highs. Positioning has become progressively more bullish through the downtrend, highlighting persistent dip-buying and growing squeeze potential.

📈https://glassno.de/4g0NjTp

Since mid-May, the 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF aggregated flows has not recorded a single net positive day.

This suggests but an absence of institutional demand. TradFi capital has yet to re-engage with BTC at current price levels.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-etf-flows-all

With price contracting to $1.04, the 90D-SMA has declined further to 0.33, the lowest reading since August 2022.

Capitulation pressure continues to deepen. Each successive low in this ratio reflects a growing share of participants exiting at a loss, with profit-taking activity increasingly unable to offset it.

📉 http://glassno.de/xrp-rplr

With price sliding below $60k, long-term holders are now carrying 5.6M BTC at a loss, the highest since the Covid crash in 2020.

The resolution of overhang supply is extending, not concluding.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-supply-loss

BTC has returned to a key inflection point after sweeping both the February and June lows.

Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.

Volatility Rebounds

BTC IV is rising as price revisits the February lows. 1 week IV has jumped from 33% to 45%, with the rest of the curve also moving higher. Options markets are pricing greater uncertainty as downside volatility returns.

https://glassno.de/4amt4vK

Protection Demand Returns

25 Delta Skew is rising across the curve as traders pay a growing premium for puts over calls. 1W skew has climbed to 30%, while longer maturities have also moved higher. Demand for downside protection is building again.

https://glassno.de/4vQ3at7

Calls Remain Out of Favor

The Skew Index Ratio compares upside IV vs downside IV. Only the 6 month tenor remains above 1, while shorter dated maturities all trade below neutral, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection than upside exposure.

https://glassno.de/3QLDTkn

Volatility Risk Premium Resets

1M implied volatility has caught back up with realized volatility. After spending the past 2 weeks below realized moves, the spread is now at zero. Options markets are no longer underpricing recent volatility.

https://glassno.de/4xQdFha

Short Gamma Dominates Below Spot

Following today's large options expiry, traders rebuilt downside exposure, forcing market makers to be short gamma from 60.5K down to 55K, where dealer hedging could amplify volatility if BTC moves lower.

https://glassno.de/4f2myge

Put Activity Dominates

Put selling led taker flow over the past 7 days, accounting for 38.3% of premium traded, followed by put buying at 32.1%. Call activity remained muted. The options tape continues to revolve around downside exposure.

https://glassno.de/4eIuge1

Wrap Up

Implied volatility has rebounded.

Protection demand is building.

Calls remain out of favor.

Volatility risk premium has normalized.

Short gamma dominates below 60.5K.

Put activity dominates the tape.

Options positioning remains defensive near key support.

Analyzing Spot $BTC ETF Volumes

Chart of the Week👇