At $82.1k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~6.9% of the market cap.

📉 glassno.de/4aqd4Ik

US 10Y yields have rebounded toward 4.4%, a level that previously coincided with pressure on
$BTC.

This time, BTC has recovered above $80K despite the rates backdrop, suggesting the market is absorbing the macro headwind more effectively than earlier in the cycle.

📈https://glassno.de/4nqHY9i

BTC has recovered above $80K as ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86K keep conviction below prior bull phases.

Executive Summary
– US spot ETF inflows have turned firmly positive as BTC recovered from mid-$60Ks to low-$80Ks
Shallow drawdown – Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% in February, now compressed to 8%; bear regime stays shallow if $60K holds
– Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change back to $2.8B/month, but well below the $10B+ seen in prior bull expansions
– Support at $76.9K (30-day cost basis), resistance at $86.9K (Nov-Feb accumulation range)
– Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks
– Hyperliquid traders steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices
– Implied volatility falling across the curve, led by the front end, as realized vol trends lower
– Downside hedging demand fading, options structure more balanced around $80K

Read the full Report
glassno.de/4wo7d0c

The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow dropped to -$88M/day, the largest outflow since mid-February.
February's outflows occurred into price weakness. This wave is selling into strength, with BTC trading near $80k.
Institutional participants were using the recovery over the recent days as an exit, not responding to fear.

📉glassno.de/4nrzXRD

At $76.7k, more than 7.8M BTC are currently held at a loss.

The supply overhang from buyers near cycle highs remains substantial, a weight the market will need to absorb before any sustained move higher becomes structurally credible.

📉 glassno.de/4wrCX4y

Median SOPR across the top 500 coins just hit break-even (SOPR=1), the highest reading since BTC traded near all time highs. The move was met with heavy selling across the market.

The typical altcoin holder has been realizing losses since late 2024.

📊 https://glassno.de/4wBiDxG

As IBIT options continue to grow, they offer new insight into institutional risk pricing, hedging activity, and positioning.

We just expanded coverage to IBIT options, bringing Glassnode's institutional-grade options market intelligence to the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF.

40+ new metrics available, including:

- OI & Volume
- ATM Implied Volatility
- Proprietary Skew metrics
- IV heatmaps

Use IBIT options data to:

→ Measure institutional sentiment
→ Compare TradFi and crypto-native positioning
→ Monitor hedging activity around macro events and drawdowns
→ Track volatility risk across tenors

📖 Read launch article glassno.de/4eWucJx
📊 Explore the new metrics glassno.de/499a0R5

BTC remains structurally resilient, but weakening spot demand, slowing ETF inflows, and increasingly crowded long positioning suggest upside momentum is cooling down.

Executive Summary
- BTC reclaimed True Market Mean at $78.3k but couldn't hold. History suggests weeks to months of consolidation needed before a bull transition.
- 30D SMA of Realized P/L Ratio jumped from 0.4 to 1.8 during the rally. Needs a sustained move above 2 to confirm real buy-side recovery.
- 30D cost basis at $78.2k flipped from support to resistance. The Feb-April cohort at $71.4k is the next support floor.
- Spot internals have weakened. Aggregate Spot CVD stays negative and Coinbase lags, pointing to softer US institutional demand.
- CME Futures OI keeps recovering with price, showing better institutional participation in derivatives.
- US Spot ETF inflows are slowing, leaving futures to drive positioning as spot demand fades.
- Options positioning stays defensive. Skew shows demand for downside hedges.

glassno.de/43lYUEO

Which coins are currently exposed to quantum risk at rest?

In our latest research, we quantify Bitcoin’s exposed supply and separate exposure into two categories:

• Structural exposure: 1.92M BTC (9.6%) coins exposed by design
• Operational exposure: 4.12M BTC (20.6%) linked to wallet behavior, address reuse, and custody practices.

▷ The larger share is operational, suggesting that part of Bitcoin’s visible exposure may still be reduced through improved wallet and custody management.

▷ Exchange-related balances alone account for 1.63M BTC (8.1% of issued supply).

Read all findings 👉 glassno.de/4v2wdJ1

Directional strategies posted their strongest month of the year as market-neutral books continued to quietly compound gains.

Across a survey of 400+ managers, every major digital asset sub-strategy delivered positive average returns in April — a level of alignment not seen in recent memory.

Read all the insights in the latest edition of Strategy Watch now live: glassno.de/3RqzSSn

Inside the new edition:

▪️ Every major crypto hedge fund sub-strategy finished positive in April

▪️ A deep dive into DeFi/Yield strategies, featuring a CIO’s perspective on where edge comes from as lending spreads compress and smart contract risk evolves

▪️ How 400+ managers are positioning for Q2, with cash levels climbing despite a more constructive market backdrop

▪️ The latest allocator activity across tokenized funds, BTC treasury strategies, and institutional on-chain yield vehicles.

Produced in collaboration with Crypto Insights Group.

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