The Week On-Chain 10, 2026
Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand begins to recover. Negative funding reveals crowded short positioning, while options volatility eases, suggesting reduced immediate risk despite lingering uncertainty.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8k–$72.6k range for over a month, with repeated failures above $70k and geopolitical uncertainty adding further downside risk to the mid-term outlook.

- Price remains bounded between the Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k), with negative return skew prevailing until a decisive hold above $70k is established.

- An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity falls short of prior episodes that preceded meaningful expansions, limiting conviction in a sustained breakout.

- The 7D-EMA of STH-SOPR has remained below 1 since October 2025, now at 0.985, confirming that recent buyers are spending at a loss — a hallmark of a bear market regime.

- US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilised, with the 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after several weeks of sustained institutional outflows.

- Spot market demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta rebounding as buyers begin absorbing sell-side liquidity across major exchanges.

- Perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating growing short positioning and increasing the potential for a short-squeeze dynamic should spot demand strengthen.

- Options markets reflect easing short-term uncertainty, with front-end implied volatility compressing as traders scale back aggressive short-dated hedging.

- Delta skew across options markets remains near neutral, suggesting limited directional conviction despite elevated macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

- Gamma positioning remains largely neutral, implying options dealer hedging flows are unlikely to meaningfully amplify price volatility in the near term.


Read more in The Week On-Chain

An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.

Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.

📉 http://glassno.de/3P2i7rr

A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj

New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series)

Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders.
Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution.

📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk

For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends.
This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets.

📉glassno.de/472oSj4

A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets.

Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves.

📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p

The Week On-Chain 11, 2026
Supply Cleared, Conviction Pending

Bitcoin has rebounded toward ~$74k as ETF inflows and spot demand recover. Shorts remain crowded with negative funding, while easing options stress suggests improving conditions but still early conviction.

Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has broken above $70k and entered a thinly accumulated air gap between $72k and $82k, with URPD confirming limited on-chain resistance until the upper band near $82k.
- ETF inflows have rebounded over the past month, marking a renewed wave of institutional demand and supporting the shift back toward spot-led market strength.
- Implied volatility has declined across tenors, reflecting a reduction in hedging demand and a normalization in market conditions.

📰 http://glassno.de/4siuWg1

Digital assets have matured into a functioning, multi-layered economy that can be measured, analysed, and compared against traditional macroeconomic benchmarks.

In a new report with WisdomTree, we examine the blockchain ecosystem through familiar economic and market-structure concepts, focusing on observable activity:

• Transaction fees as revealed demand for network utility
• Security provisioning through economic commitment via mining (energy) or staking (capital)
• Exchanges and custodians as gateways to traditional capital markets
• Stablecoins as the primary settlement and liquidity layer
• DeFi and tokenization as extensions of on-chain financial activity.

Taken together, these components form a financial system that increasingly mirrors traditional markets in structure and function.

📑 Get the report here

A simple 30D MA crossover of BTC price vs. Max Pain generates long/short signals that outperform buy-and-hold over a long time horizon.
Exploratory, not prescriptive. But the signal quality warrants attention.

Full interactive backtest available in Glassnode Studio👇
📉glassno.de/3NFyKsm

Demand Exhaustion Update

The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k.
Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts.
Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.

📉glassno.de/4bppmCo

New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort

This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score.

Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating.
Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e