🔄UPDATE:

The $70k ceiling holds!

Feb 19 → Feb 25 → Mar 03, 02:00 UTC.

Each time the 12HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L spiked above $5M/hr, price stalled and reversed at the $69.4k range high. This region continues to cap every recovery attempt. The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure.

Until this level of profit-taking can be absorbed without triggering rejection, $70k remains a ceiling, not a floor.

📉glassno.de/4kHB925

Perpetual Open Interest posted its largest daily % increase since July 2025.
Leverage expanded as price tested $69.4k, consistent with speculators betting on a $70k breakout that didn't materialize.

📈glassno.de/4u0lkrj

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Download the inaugural edition: https://glassno.de/4u7QGfF

Each issue combines aggregated manager survey data with on-chain and market intelligence to track:

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🔹 Strategy performance dispersion
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🔹 SMA adoption and mandate shifts
🔹 Allocation activity

If you allocate capital, manage crypto strategies, or shape investment mandates, this is your monthly read on where returns are concentrating and how institutions are positioning.

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#BTC Spot ETF flows are stabilising after sustained outflows. The 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signalling easing distribution pressure as BTC breaks above 70k. Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging.
https://glassno.de/4sLx5Rh

🔄 UPDATE:

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) has been trading below 1 since February 21.
Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it.

📉 glassno.de/4rjg683

The Week On-Chain 10, 2026
Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand begins to recover. Negative funding reveals crowded short positioning, while options volatility eases, suggesting reduced immediate risk despite lingering uncertainty.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8k–$72.6k range for over a month, with repeated failures above $70k and geopolitical uncertainty adding further downside risk to the mid-term outlook.

- Price remains bounded between the Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k), with negative return skew prevailing until a decisive hold above $70k is established.

- An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity falls short of prior episodes that preceded meaningful expansions, limiting conviction in a sustained breakout.

- The 7D-EMA of STH-SOPR has remained below 1 since October 2025, now at 0.985, confirming that recent buyers are spending at a loss — a hallmark of a bear market regime.

- US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilised, with the 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after several weeks of sustained institutional outflows.

- Spot market demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta rebounding as buyers begin absorbing sell-side liquidity across major exchanges.

- Perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating growing short positioning and increasing the potential for a short-squeeze dynamic should spot demand strengthen.

- Options markets reflect easing short-term uncertainty, with front-end implied volatility compressing as traders scale back aggressive short-dated hedging.

- Delta skew across options markets remains near neutral, suggesting limited directional conviction despite elevated macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

- Gamma positioning remains largely neutral, implying options dealer hedging flows are unlikely to meaningfully amplify price volatility in the near term.


Read more in The Week On-Chain

An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.

Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.

📉 http://glassno.de/3P2i7rr

A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj

New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series)

Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders.
Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution.

📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk

For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends.
This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets.

📉glassno.de/472oSj4

A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets.

Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves.

📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p