Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC.
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.

📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r

The 90D-SMA of top crypto assets' Change in Open Interest [%] has remained negative since October 2025.
The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract.
Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime.

📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT

The 7D-EMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss for recent investors plunged to –$1.24B/day on Feb 06, before moderating to –$0.48B/day today.
While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.

📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO

#BTC options positioning has flipped.

Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above.
With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves.
https://glassno.de/46LyIG3

The Week On-Chain 8, 2026
#BTC is range-bound between key valuation anchors, with $60k–$69k absorbing sell pressure. Profitability and breadth are fading, spot and ETF flows stay negative, and leverage has reset.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60k–$70k at a 47% drawdown from ATH, a depth historically aligned with mid-to-late bear market phases.

- Nearly 9.2M BTC are now held at a loss, yet accumulation remains weak, with the Accumulation Trend Score below 0.5, signaling limited conviction from larger entities.

- The 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1.0, confirming an excess loss regime and structurally impaired liquidity, keeping downside risk elevated.

- Market breadth remains weak, as fewer assets sustain positioning above long-term trend baselines, confirming underlying structural softness.

- Large entity accumulation remains constructive in structure but has slowed in pace, reducing a key source of marginal upside support.

- Spot CVD has turned decisively negative across major venues, signaling active distribution. ETF flows remain in persistent outflow, confirming institutional demand is not providing a structural bid.

- Perpetual funding rates have normalized toward neutral, indicating leverage has reset. However, the absence of sustained positive funding reflects muted speculative appetite rather than renewed bullish conviction.

- Implied volatility has reacted to downside moves but failed to expand meaningfully, suggesting options markets are stabilizing rather than pricing systemic stress.


Read more in The Week On-Chain

Feb 25, 18:00 UTC — this pattern repeated.
Smoothed Net Realized P&L exceeded $5M/hr. Price peaked at $69.4k and stalled.

Profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70k threshold, consistent with a thin liquidity regime where even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.

📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925

🔄UPDATE:

The $70k ceiling holds!

Feb 19 → Feb 25 → Mar 03, 02:00 UTC.

Each time the 12HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L spiked above $5M/hr, price stalled and reversed at the $69.4k range high. This region continues to cap every recovery attempt. The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure.

Until this level of profit-taking can be absorbed without triggering rejection, $70k remains a ceiling, not a floor.

📉glassno.de/4kHB925

Perpetual Open Interest posted its largest daily % increase since July 2025.
Leverage expanded as price tested $69.4k, consistent with speculators betting on a $70k breakout that didn't materialize.

📈glassno.de/4u0lkrj