#Bitcoin spent the past week rebounding to $70K and stalling into the high $60Ks. The structure still looks reactive, with attempts to recover meeting overhead supply and follow-through remaining limited.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX
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The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels.
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9
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The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys
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During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo
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BTC Realized Profits-to-Value (30D MA) has retraced sharply, unwinding much of the prior profit-taking impulse. However, it remains above the historical capitulation band.
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.
https://glassno.de/40fcpoa
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.
https://glassno.de/40fcpoa
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Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection.
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
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The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
• Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment.
• Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation.
• Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious.
• ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside.
• The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations.
📰https://glassno.de/4qHi80M
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
• Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment.
• Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation.
• Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious.
• ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside.
• The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations.
📰https://glassno.de/4qHi80M
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Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC.
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.
📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.
📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r
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The 90D-SMA of top crypto assets' Change in Open Interest [%] has remained negative since October 2025.
The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract.
Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime.
📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT
The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract.
Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime.
📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT
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The 7D-EMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss for recent investors plunged to –$1.24B/day on Feb 06, before moderating to –$0.48B/day today.
While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.
📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO
While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.
📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO
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#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf
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#BTC options positioning has flipped.
Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above.
With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves.
https://glassno.de/46LyIG3
Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above.
With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves.
https://glassno.de/46LyIG3
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